Inflation has been the central focus since I've been on the Fed. I'm a little more concerned about inflation right now because the job market and growth are pretty steady. There are promising signs in inflation reports but also warning signs.

I'm not hawkish about rates. I'm pretty optimistic we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026, as long as we see the progress on inflation that forecasters have been forecasting.

We need inflation not to be persistent. The part of inflation from tariffs is supposed to be transitory. When forecasts keep pushing the goalpost for when inflation will fall, that's not a great sign.

A large group of the committee thinks that where rates will eventually settle is still well below where we are today. We must get inflation down from this 3% level we've been stalled at for a year or more.

The inflation impact from tariffs is supposed to go away. If the rates are lower than before, that should make it even more true that we should see inflation going down.

Policy uncertainty is more on the labor side. The low hiring, low firing environment is what you expect with uncertainty. That's not what the beginning of a recession looks like.

They say they want to know what the rules of the road are going to be. Right now we don't know, and there could be very significant changes. I'm sympathetic with that.

I still think the American consumer has been pretty solid. We've got a steady job market. If we make progress on inflation, I think rates are trending down.

The answer depends very much on the industry. Software companies are uncertain about AI. The healthcare sector is booming with expanding employment.

I hope that is what happens. Productivity growth makes us rich. But we should remember: it can be deflationary, but it can also stimulate a lot of investment. In the short run, people counting on future productivity growth can overheat the economy.

If that is Kevin Warsh's position, I've known him a long time. I respect him a great deal. I mostly agree with him.

There's a lot of uncertainty and we have to make decisions with the data we have. I take my own views and that of my staff with a heavy grain of salt when things are changing a lot.

I'm still optimistic that we're basically cruising along with solid growth, a steady labor market. We've got some encouraging and some discouraging signs on inflation. If we can just get some improvement, I feel like we could still get back on the golden path.

We should constantly be evaluating as a body what we're doing and the efficacy of doing that. We switched out of scarce reserves because in crisis there were some holes in that regime. It's possible we should study it.