Argues gains are due to renewed confidence in US tech, not geopolitics. Middle East events don't matter much for S&P earnings because consumer cyclicals are a tiny part of the index, while Tech/AI is nearly 50% of market cap. The recent rally corrects an irrational 20% derating in S&P multiples seen at the war's start.

Even if lower-income households are hurt, they are not the main drivers of aggregate consumption numbers like retail sales.

European story is more nuanced (chemicals, autos more affected). Currently in a global relief rally driven by falling interest rate volatility. Advises investors to flip the March performance picture: buy what didn't work then. In a second stage (weeks/months), rotate from Europe to US as AI/tech outlook remains strong.

Compares to Russia-Ukraine pattern.

Higher commodity prices will hurt certain consumers, but not the main contributors to aggregate data. On tech, a fundamental change occurred since Q3: markets now punish higher AI capex, leading to flat hyperscaler prices but soaring earnings. Relative tech valuations are near 10-year lows, making tech cheap on a longer-term basis.

The tech premium has almost vanished.

The yield risk is real, not theoretical. Current bullish stance is tactical (since mid-March) due to clean positioning. In 3-6 months, strong data (high pre-announcement ratio, sticky inflation, falling unemployment) could make things look 'too hot,' pushing the terminal rate toward 4% and pressuring asset classes, with the dollar as the only safe haven.

Q1 reporting season shows corporates are exceeding their own expectations by the most in 5 years.

Yes, US exceptionalism would come back because relative valuation compression has exceeded the justified move in relative profitability. The US may even be 'too cheap' given its superior profitability outlook, but this would coincide with a more challenging rate outlook in a couple of months.

People overreacted to AI funding concerns since Q4.