Asking what matters longer-term regarding the Iran situation and markets.
Carol Massar
Kevin Gordon
Waiting to see the scale and persistence of the conflict. The US is more insulated than Europe, but even if oil stabilizes higher, it's a big increase from a few weeks ago, creating a psychological shock.
Asking if it's stagflation.
Carol Massar
Kevin Gordon
Depends on definition. Not 1970s stagflation, but there has been a stagflationary impulse recently with unemployment grinding higher and inflation near 3%.
Asking how to play this market given the uncertainty.
Norah Mulinda
Kevin Gordon
Schwab hasn't adjusted anything and doesn't suggest clients do. Distinguish between front-page risk and bottom-line risk. Markets only care about hits to earnings. If it's a short-term conflict causing an inflation shock but not a growth hit, the market will look through it.
Asking how long the war has to go on before they adjust.
Carol Massar
Kevin Gordon
A scenario of Brent in the $80-$90 range starts to pinch the consumer, eating into tax refund stimulus, especially for lower-income households.
Asking how he would realign investments in a bear case.
Norah Mulinda
Kevin Gordon
No major realignment needed unless there's a big shift in US growth trajectory. The labor market showed signs of stabilization pre-conflict.
Asking what investors should pay more attention to (AI, private credit).
Carol Massar
Kevin Gordon
As AI diffuses through the economy, benefits may broaden beyond mega-cap tech. This could mean the S&P 500 doesn't power higher as dramatically if smaller sectors participate more.