Asks about degree of disruption in metals over last 6 weeks.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Aluminium most physically disrupted: 9% of global production in region, lost ~4% globally due to shipping issues, raw material access, strikes.
Small imbalances matter; takes ~12 months to fix disruptions.
Amy Gatt
Macro factors (dollar, rates) also affecting metals.
Asks demand implications given 12-month fix timeline.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Expect 2M ton surplus in aluminium, steep backwardation disincentivizing inventory holding.
Market will stay very tight; possible substitution to steel in autos.
Asks about other regions ramping up production.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Challenge is electricity supply; China capped, Indonesia pipeline known but slow; US smelters sold to data centers.
Midwest premium pushes all-in price to ~$6000, still insufficient.
Asks if markets are too sanguine given inflationary potential.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Positioning was already long; physical premiums doubling in Europe, rising in Midwest/Japan show real impact.
Physical realities will become clearer over time.
Asks about countries stockpiling base metals.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
More countries talking about stockpiling (EU, UK, Australia, SK); theme for next few years, bullish for complex.
Started with US Project Vault; governments now paying attention post-COVID supply shocks.
Amy Gatt
Stockpiling acts as demand, supports prices above incentive levels (e.g., copper at $12k vs $10k incentive).
Asks about gold demand below $5K.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Central bank buying stable; Turkey sold in March, China bought most since Jan 2025. ETFs are bigger swing factor, dependent on rates.
Gold reconnected with real yield story, limiting near-term upside.
Asks if crude backwardation is market bet on future lower prices.
Jonathan Ferro
Amy Gatt
Backwardation reflects inventory/flow needs, not price forecast; downward slope is bullish signal, indicating need to clear inventory.
Applies to metals as well.