The physical supply disruption is immense and cannot be quickly undone, using the Ever Given Suez blockage (6 days, 3M barrels) as a scale comparison to 800 ships stuck in the Persian Gulf for 6 weeks.

Highlights the knock-on effects: production shutdowns, unloading problems in Asia due to fuel shortages, and critical timing for fertilizer delivery affecting future harvests.

Jet fuel example shows countries outbidding each other and prioritizing domestic needs, creating volatile, fragmented markets.

Cites March data: 25% of US jet fuel went to UK. Notes geopolitical quid pro quos and Trump's 'go get your own oil' stance as sources of uncertainty.

This is a uniquely toxic shock for Britain due to pre-existing high energy costs, lack of storage, and inflationary policies.

Political instability within the Labour Party (Starmer sidelined, Miliband ascendant) compounds the economic vulnerability.

The UK is on a 'hair trigger' for petrol shortages, combining with unpopular leadership, cost-of-living shock, and volatile gilts that sell off more than others due to a political risk premium.

Notes £252bn of gilt sales planned this year, 50% more than during the 2022 'Truss' crisis, raising the risk of a slow-motion fiscal crisis.

Yes. We are heading into a 'slow-motion crisis' requiring a repricing to a more inflationary, permanent loss of output world with stagflationary tendencies.

Argues yields may not be high enough to compensate for real UK fiscal risks. Suggests the pound could take the brunt, but that would feed back into inflation.

The positive is that dialogue has started, averting a worse outcome, and it forces a necessary redrawing of supply chains and discussion on energy security.

Acknowledges UK has some strengths (Norway link, US jet fuel) and that crises can breed resilience and better long-term outcomes.