Expresses nervousness about market optimism for quick conflict resolution and lack of pricing for broad inflationary impact from energy shock.

Wants to build portfolio resilience against both inflationary risks and potential for more prolonged conflict than markets are pricing.

Explains gold was added as portfolio ballast but positioning became very stretched, leading to poor performance in recent risk-off moment.

Long duration fixed income has been disappointing as a hedge; gold was used as alternative but crowded trade reduced its effectiveness.

Added short duration fixed income last week and trimmed EM debt due to lack of yield move from crisis and view that inflation will be 'peakier' in 2026.

Believes market expectations for Fed hikes were overdone, especially in 2-year yields which moved too far.

Cautious on European equities due to multiple expansion without fundamental improvement; natural gas disruption creates inflationary pressures that complicate growth story.

Europe needs strong macro backdrop for earnings growth due to operational leverage; crisis makes them less constructive, not rotating from US to Europe.