Introduces BlackRock's view that the energy-led supply chain shock is likely short-lived, measured in weeks rather than months.
speaker1
Jean Boivin
Cannot ignore the shock. The Strait of Hormuz is key to watch, with tanker flows at about 16% of normal - a massive shock for now.
Jean Boivin
The world cannot sustain months of $100+ oil; people will react. This is not days, not months, but weeks.
Goldman forecasts crude in the 90s for Q4 if disruption lasts 60 days. December crude currently trading in 70s-80s.
speaker1
Jean Boivin
Market already pricing $90+ until June then declining to December - that's a couple of months of shock.
Jean Boivin
Not a stagflationary shock unless we get months of $200+ oil, which would shave 0.5% off growth and add 1% to global inflation.