Geopolitics: US President set 15-day deadline for Iran nuclear deal. Is this time different for markets? Could serious escalation have global economy implications?
Joumanna
Ziad Daoud
Something serious simmering. US amassing largest military mobilization since 2003 Iraq invasion. US strikes on Iran will come; Iranians won't limit themselves to symbolic attacks.
Ziad Daoud
Translation from Middle East geopolitics to global economy happens through oil. Last 2.5 years had unimaginable escalation yet oil prices $20 lower than Oct 2023.
How influential is region for marginal oil price given US more independent?
Joumanna
Ziad Daoud
Iran produces ~5% global oil; region (incl. Iraq, Saudi, Kuwait, UAE) supplies one-third of global oil. Region supplies ~15% of global energy needs (unchanged since 1970s).