How much of oil price move is geopolitical premium vs potential hit to Iranian exports or Strait of Hormuz disruption?
Joumanna
Anthony DiPaola
Hit to exports/production not yet in price. Seeing risk premium related to elevated tension, probability something likely to happen.
Anthony DiPaola
Risks include Iranian infrastructure and Iranian retaliation hitting other oil producers (Saudi, UAE, Iraq). These factors could push oil price even higher.
How much spare capacity does OPEC+ have to supply market if big Iran disruption?
Joumanna
Anthony DiPaola
Spare capacity cushion smallest in long time. Saudi at ~10mb/d production, sustainable capacity 12mb/d, leaving ~2mb/d cushion - not enough to replace Iran's >3mb/d.