Should people hedge for potential Iran escalation?
Joumanna
Laleh Connor
Market thinking this is negotiating tactic. Creating demand for safe-haven assets like US dollar. Expect more increase in price of gold and other safe havens heading into weekend/next week.
Recent strong US data, hawkish Fed minutes. Setup for H2 with new Fed chair?
Joumanna
Laleh Connor
Expecting 2 rate cuts; new Fed chair doesn't change that much. New chair doesn't like QE, wants smaller Fed balance sheet.
Is USD decline ending?
Joumanna
Laleh Connor
USD will stay soft for some time. Tracking Trump 1.0 where it declined ~10% in 2025. Downward pressure from rate cutting cycle.
Thoughts on GBP?
Joumanna
Laleh Connor
Expect BoE to cut; inflation heading right direction, will pressure sterling vs USD.
Earnings season US vs Europe?
Joumanna
Laleh Connor
US earnings growth ~14% healthy, driven by tech, communication, industrials. Beats lower than past quarters, environment where investors more discerning, want execution from capex spenders.