Asking about oil price expectations for Monday opening after recent headlines
speaker1
Mike
Oil probably up a little bit given recent news but stuck in new range between 80 and 100
If stays above 100, breaks things - global economy tilting downward, GDP estimates lower. Below 80 eventually but not right now
Mike
December crude oil futures at $72, expects to drop to 50 by midterms
Natural gas led the way down in 2022-2023, showing complete bull market in elasticity
Even if Strait opens, costs will rise due to higher sailor pay and insurance
speaker1
Mike
Price maker status in crude oil now in Western Hemisphere with US as center
US and Canada surplus vs demand running 8M barrels/day, could go to 10M; lower prices will stop that
Asking about other commodities and natural gas performance
speaker1
Mike
Natural gas is great leading indicator; US has ocean of natural gas proven in price
Every time gets above 5, goes back down; key for heat, electricity, fertilizer
Mike
Spike in diesel and gas prices shuts off consumer spending, messes up capital budget decisions
Data from this period will be pretty bad; similar to 2008 energy spike and 9/11 when people shut off spending
Asking about Bitcoin and crypto outlook
speaker1
Mike
Bitcoin bull market over, now in purge, expects to head toward 50 this year
Space with excessive supply; now lagging stock market performance since 2021, especially since ETFs launched