Introduces Tom Lee who sees more records ahead with retail as catalyst
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Tom Lee
Investors got cautious into war buildup, retail stocks were hit, but now downside tail risks removed
Hedge funds adding risk, retail beginning to take money off sidelines
Asks why retail reacted differently to Iran war vs other political events
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Tom Lee
Retail had policy puzzlement, feared gasoline spike causing recession
Difficult to trust administration with many warning about tail risks
Questions if retail might be right about bigger impact from gasoline prices
Heard gasoline discussed in non-business context, suggests pros might be missing something
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Tom Lee
Inflation-adjusted gasoline not as burdensome, consumer in better shape
Earnings estimates, ISM, jobs report show war stimulating economy
Asks if retail chasing will power market higher
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Tom Lee
Yes, for right fundamental reasons - earnings higher, US position strengthened
World investors will buy US stock market as growth index
Asks US vs international preference
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Tom Lee
Overweight US due to innovation in tech, healthcare, fintech
War exposed that US multiple should be going up, not derating
Confirms potential for both earnings and multiple expansion
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Tom Lee
Yes, tricky year with new Fed chair, but then entering best 18-24 month period
Market will test new Fed chair, but subsequent turbulence leads to strong period