Paper market is selling off looking through conflict to resolution, but physical reality is longer timeline due to production shutdowns and shipping disruptions.

Production restarts take weeks to months; ships have redirected from Strait of Hormuz and need confidence to return. Physical Brent dated trades at $134, showing disconnect.

Optimistic restart is 1 month (Saudi), worst case 2-4 months (Kuwait), up to 6 months for Iraq. Market using 2 months average, which is optimistic.

Normalization uncertain due to potential ongoing Strait compromise and higher freight rates deterring ship returns.

US exports can increase from 4 to 5 million bpd, but 1 million bpd increase insufficient to fill gap from Strait disruption.

Using buffers like SPR and exports is 'using a shovel to fill a hole dug by an excavator.' Physical market scarcity shows gap not filled fast enough short-term.

Red Sea disruption would be very significant; losing 5 million bpd reroute would change picture to 'ugly,' prevented $150 crude.