Duration is key. Global economy has buffers for 1-2 weeks. If conflict lasts weeks/months, it becomes a big macro shock. Near-term binding constraint is storage in oil-producing countries.

I'd worry if we go beyond two weeks from an oil price market perspective. It represents a shock to the region. The transmission mechanism to global economy is oil prices. If no let-up in 15 days, sharp production cuts could cause lingering high oil prices even after conflict ends. Next 2-3 weeks crucial.

Crude going into triple digits and staying there. Key is price × duration. If stays for weeks/months: 1) Purchasing power squeeze, 2) Central banks worry about inflation expectations, 3) Impacts global growth. Asia's starting points favorable: inflation benign/below target, current accounts in better shape (large surpluses in Korea/Taiwan, manageable deficits in India/Indonesia).

For few weeks, can juggle pieces. If goes beyond a month, meaningful production cuts and country impacts. Next 3-4 weeks very important.

India large oil importer, but starting points matter: current account deficit below 1% GDP (sustainable 2.5%), inflation at 2%, huge FX reserves. Emerging markets improved macro frameworks since 2013.

Region has reserves, but worry if conflict longer: correlated shocks (oil up, uncertainty up, gold up) affect current accounts. Strong dollar questions capital flows to finance deficits. Buffers and macro frameworks matter. First reaction panic, then investors assess low inflation, large reserves, fine fiscal frameworks.

Developed markets risk from sustained oil shock paradoxically higher because entering with stickier inflation. US: Fed missed 2% target 6 consecutive years. If higher oil prices, distribution: producers benefit but consumers see higher prices affecting CPI. Short shock (few weeks) Fed looks through; if long enough to affect inflation expectations, central banks preempt.