Asking if Korea's selloff is a warning signal that investors are underpricing Iran risk.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Korea's moves show markets starting to take risk seriously; correction overdue after parabolic rise.
Noting huge losses in other benchmarks, asking if path to panic.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Not panic, but pricing risk war won't end soon; markets differentiating impact: Asia hurt most, Europe next, US least.
Asking if rotation back to US will occur if Iran war persists.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Yes, rotation will reverse; countries like India face massive energy price shock.
Asking if stronger dollar ahead.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
If war continues, dollar stronger due to flight to safety and reduced Fed cut expectations.
Asking how to position, role of Treasuries.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Treasuries' hedging function not needed yet; both tails mispriced; White House statement missing regime change objective suggests off-ramp possible.
Asking best place to hide.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Precious metals safest; copper bullish structurally; oil spot price spike to $100-120 okay if brief; worry if 3-4 month contract at $95.
Asking about China's resilience and yuan fair value.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
Yuan should appreciate given US inflation differential; fair value closer to 6.50 over 12-18 months.
Asking China's view on Iran war risks.
Haslinda Amin
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
China can withstand Strait closure for weeks; has Belt and Road investments in Iran; domestic sentiment anti-US; likely postponement of Xi-Trump summit.