Timeline for war remains uncertain, doesn't look like end in sight. Both sides showing defiance - US escalating strikes, Iran threatening to keep Strait of Hormuz closed.

Risk of divergence between US and Israel on tactics. Questions about targeting leadership hardening Iran's resolve.

If Israel continues fighting, Iran would continue to hold shipping at risk. If disruptions persist for several more weeks, oil could continue to tick up. If disruptions persist for closer to three months, oil could be well above $150/barrel, maybe around $164.

Jones Act waivers and SPR releases will have cushioning effect but limited impact. Jones Act will take few cents off gasoline. SPR release coordinated for 400M gallons globally, will only amount to about 20 days of supply from Strait of Hormuz.

Probably seeing mix of efforts for long ceasefire and direct country engagement for energy supplies. Two sides far apart - Iran wants guarantees against reattack and sanctions relief, US wants guarantees on nuclear/missile program.