Precious metals at all-time highs with spot trading above futures in backwardation. Physical market at breaking point with desperate global scramble to cover historic squeeze in London metals.
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Metal flow started with gold before Christmas last year, then silver picked up. Repatriation to China and BRICS nations accelerated. Merchant banking moved metal in advance of Trump election. We're in a mineral/metal war for control of resources.
Does repatriation acceleration worsen London squeeze, creating self-feeding crisis?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
100% yes. Assets go where treated best. Premium to bring metal back to UK, but companies hesitant due to potential US tariffs. Silver boarding airplanes last week - expensive vs boat transport. Interest rates in London reached over 100% annualized (now ~10%) vs traditional 1-2%.
How real is threat of restrictive tariffs on silver? How are you repositioning arbitrage and sourcing?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Trump moves at speed of tweet - tariff risks come and go. Don't tax what you need: 80% US silver consumption imported. Could see export tariffs especially if on critical mineral list. Hidden hands worldwide buying assets including central banks and OTC buying by China/BRICS/US.
Is rally to $4,200 gold/$53 silver just pricing Fed rate cuts or something deeper?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
People underexposed to asset class. Central bankers buying to double/triple gold on balance sheets. Morgan Stanley recommending 20% gold allocation. Capital doesn't know where to go - not bonds, not treasuries - going to trustless system (gold).
What's happening to metal leaving London/Switzerland not appearing in public reports?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
China requiring insurance companies hold gold. Retail frenzy in China malls. Silver now seen as precious metal not just commodity. Previously institutional buying while retail selling. Now retail awakening worldwide - clamoring for metal.
What's different about buyers now?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Banks will lift projections - potentially triple digits for silver. Required element for hybrid cars, electronics, solar, military, chips. Governments (Russia, Saudi) buying physical silver for balance sheets. US putting silver on critical mineral list means building stockpiles.
How desperate is situation to fly silver across Atlantic?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Silver extremely competitive with tight margins. Airplane costs $75,000 vs boat few cents. Arbitrage spread must justify. Last Christmas through February: every commercial flight with high-security waiver carried 3+ tons gold. We're in metal war securing above and below ground.
Why physical bar in London worth $3 more than NY futures?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
They're short - don't have enough. Metal moves where treated best. Global pricing system but if someone wants it more, they pay premium (exchange for physical price).
39.2% silver lease rates - squeeze or panic?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Both - also shakeout. Refineries floor plan with banks. Backlog 2-4+ months for gold/silver. Can't finance quickly. Some places can't even take metal. Industry frozen. Rates dialing back down - could fix in week. Chaos not over, price not necessarily down.
Are industrial production lines at risk due to financing costs up to 85%?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Some on pause. Cash companies with assets continue. Serious capital moving - bankers doing well.
Does this expose flaw in fractional reserve bullion banking?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Potentially yes. Nation states want metal out of pool - in their vaulting facilities, audited, eyes on. Jurisdictional risk: UK not EU, EU/UK not getting along with Trump administration. Insurance risk: metal values rising so much aggregate limits blown.
How critical is refining bottleneck (4-6 month backlog)?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Big. US/Japan integrated (Nippon Steel deal). Metal industry critical/strategic for US survival. Not in globalism - not trading friendly. Activated as foreign trade zone to handle tariff risks.
What does backlog mean for miners?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Banks buy ~90% based on assay, prepay, then settlement. Bank refactors rate, charges mining company. Merchant banking resurgence: when nations not trading, bank buys material, refines elsewhere, ships to another government.
Japan's Tanaka suspending small gold bar sales - retail supply shock?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Yes. Institutional customer wanted all readily available metal. Supply shock. Many sold at $30s-$40s, now new class of buyers. Retail ready product takes time to produce.
How interpret COMEX registered vs eligible stockpiles?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
COMEX is where metal goes last in normal market. Quite bit of silver in US - supply lines flowing well. Europe feeling different. Watch weekly/monthly metal flow in/out of major depositories.
Does merchant banking nationalize trade routes? How much leverage for China/BRICS?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Big leverage. Started when West seized Russian assets. BRICS building vaults across nations, gold spread out, creating settlement layer to compete with dollar. Bifurcated trade coming - two worlds (Axis/Allies). Only one US company can trade gold/silver with mainland China.
If metal can't flow between systems, do prices lose anchor?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Challenge. Started with Trump tweet: 'don't create competitor to dollar and don't back it.' Clamping down of price points changing. More free market price point - where should gold really be?
How does China's role fit into physical squeeze?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
China locked up assets in Africa. US playing rapid catch-up. US focus: Western Hemisphere (North/South America).
Is China buying due to internal weakness? Could Shanghai Gold Exchange relieve London?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Don't kill your customer - squeeze London, not kill. China trying to control world metal trade. US re-shoring gold to not lose status.
Ever see anything like this? Next 6 month indicators?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Price now indicator. Governments debasing currency monthly. Elon Musk found three extra money printers in US government. People turning to hard asset due to lack of trust. Huge monetary pressure - need monetary reset.
How far is this going?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Fair-Sinclair Ratio: foreign debt of US divided by stated gold holdings = over $30,000. Hit target twice before (1970s to $887.50, 2001 to $1,650).
Message for investors protecting wealth?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Will be volatile both ways. Establish position, reallocate portfolio. Want to be earlier side. In 3rd-4th inning, target around 2030. Not overnight - don't be emotional, use gut.
What needs to happen for gold $30,000?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Already hit ratio twice in lifetime. Not even in frenzy mode - retail just started days ago. 2011 was speculative trading - this is physical demand market (hidden hand: institutions/governments).
Are people buying silver instead of gold?
Jeremy Safern
Josh Fair
Depends on gold/silver ratios. Gold slow/steady, silver wild ride/volatile. Higher allocation start layering more gold. Great opportunity with both.