Two weeks ago after weak jobs report, I was ready to dissent for a rate cut, thinking oil spike would be short-lived with no inflation issues.

Since then, Strait of Hormuz closed, conflict looks protracted, oil prices will stay high longer, suggesting inflation is more concerning.

Second issue: research suggests labor force growth this year will be zero or close to zero, meaning zero net new jobs is break-even for unemployment.

Last three months averaged around zero jobs, putting me in odd spot where brain understands math but gut says this isn't okay.

Economist for 45 years, never told zero was normal; Fed would need to respond to -92,000 jobs.

If oil stays high for months, it bleeds through because oil is input into many products, unlike tariffs on specific goods.

Worry about high and persistent oil shocks, not transitory ones that go up and come right back down.

70s had sequence of oil shocks, not one-time; central bank wisdom since 80s is to look through oil price moves that go up and come down.

Critical difference: oil goes up and stays high for long time bleeds into core inflation, then you have to respond, can't just look through.

Started thinking inflation problem may be worse if this continues; caution is warranted, similar to approach before Russia-Ukraine invasion.

Doesn't mean staying put all year; if things go reasonably well and labor market weak, would advocate cutting policy rate later this year.

If inflation was 2.8% in Dec 2024 and 2.8% now with tariffs adding 50-100bps, structural inflation had to come down to maintain 2.8%.

Structural inflation rate probably more like 2%, getting closer to 2%.

Once past tariffs and maybe second quarter, will see inflation come back down.

Don't think there's need for rate hikes because of this math argument; tariffs pushing inflation up while structural factors bringing it down.