• For more, let's bring in Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife, John Hancock Investments Matt, it's great to have you on. I know earnings are going to kick off and really get underway in earnest tomorrow when some of the big banks begin to report. Why is that the thing that matters here the most?
    Host
  • Matt Miskin
    Because at the end of the day, multiples are stretched. There is a lot of froth in the market, in our view, but the lone driver of markets from here is going to be earnings. And we're about to go into the most wonderful time of the year and it's earnings season because we can turn off, we can have noise canceling headphones on and we can just focus on facts versus feelings. We can focus on numbers and be objective here. And what we're seeing is the best earnings revisions have been in the technology sector and financials, which is kind of an odd combo, frankly, but they're almost symbiotic, meaning they actually benefit from each other. Financials are likely benefiting from the huge rise in equities, the technology sector driving stocks here. And the technology profits are helping financial sector profits. And so in our view, technology is one of the best places to be. We do think that some might need to take a breather here if there's such a great run. But pound for pound it's the best earnings growth in the world today.
  • Okay I'm looking at your notes here. And you say we've highlighted that this is likely one of the most politically influenced markets in history. And that this past week showed it is far from changing yet. So what should investors not be doing in this environment?
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  • Matt Miskin
    So the easy thing to do is to get sucked into it and to try to day trade headlines and potential policy moves. And we've seen time and time again, if you're trying to time policy developments like this, you can get on the wrong side of it and you're focusing likely on the wrong things. Again, this is why we talk about earnings being so crucial. Because back in the day, in the 90s when I was growing up, there was this old saying it was it's the economy, stupid. And we don't like to use those words around here in the household. So we don't say stupid. But in our view, it's actually earnings. Whatever you may say it is, that are really driving stocks. And so for politically we would remove the noise, focus on the economy and being an equity investor the next couple weeks and even tomorrow morning we're waking up with huge bank earnings. That's really what we've got to watch here because the political developments could get you whipsawed so easily. The earnings trends have been the best indicator of relative performance this year. We think it's going to continue to be the case.
  • If you've got a higher bar to beat with earnings. Since investors are getting so optimistic going into this reporting season. I mean, is that a risk in of itself.
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  • Matt Miskin
    So it has come up some it's up to about 8%. But relative to the last two quarters they were doing about 13% earnings growth. So they could actually this is a lower bar than where it ended the last couple quarters. And so at 8% that's what the street's looking for. We think they can do better than that. But yeah into next year this is where it gets hard. So technology earnings growth into 2026 is already penciled in at 20%. That's going to be hard to reach. And the overall S&P 500 earnings growth in the next year is about 14%. So we've got to get it done here. So far earnings have delivered every single time. It has been a year of earnings coming in and doing their job. In our view the earnings bar is not too bad here in Q3. We think it's manageable and the markets actually are trying to sniff that out. Even on a day like today.
  • US versus the rest of the world, especially as we do have this conversation about earnings season.
    Host
  • Matt Miskin
    Yeah. We're looking around the world for the best earnings. We're trying to be we're investing in companies, not countries. If you take the outside of the rest of the world marketplace, European earnings are growing at about 1% year over year. The stocks are up 30%. In US dollar terms. The earnings are up one. China's earnings are up about zero on a year over year basis. The S&P 500 earnings are growing at about 10 to 11%. So when I look around the world, the best earnings in the world is in the United States. And if that's going to be the long term driver of stock market returns, that's where we're going to spend the money.
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