Today's move is a repositioning move, a lot of short covering in response to how investors were set up over the past five weeks.

We've seen volatility around the news flow; we think that probably persists. The ceasefire announcement allows us to shift away from viewing the Iran conflict as a black swan event.

The Goldilocks scenario is still under question. We're navigating lingering effects of higher oil prices, which will gradually impact the consumer.

We can begin to re-establish a framework for the broadening trade we pushed to the sidelines a few weeks ago.

First place is down into US small/mid-cap, which is more traditionally economically sensitive but also most at risk of higher-for-longer oil prices.

Also within large cap, look to parts of the market with a more cyclical setup, like banks.

Lower interest rates are, at a minimum, a sentiment importance to that trade. We have to watch where inflation data goes.

The more we see evidence that the bump in oil prices is a transitory inflation impact, the more you can come back to the small-cap playbook, which has a setup for notably improving earnings progression through 2026.