VIX remains a signal, but dynamics are weird; it can rise even when stocks go up due to right-tail chasing. Investors should hedge when they can, not when they have to, as many hedges went on sale last week.

Mentions persistent investor worries and the psychological 20 handle.

Prior to ceasefire talks, there was demand for downside hedges like put spreads, call spreads in energy, or straightforward S&P puts. Investors engaged in tactical hedging, removing hedges on downdrafts due to short-term memory.

Notes institutional investors were better positioned for the recent whiplash, and with volatility down, it's a good time to place downside protection again.

Yes, there's a chase to call options, which can drive VIX up alongside rising markets. However, skew inversion (calls more expensive than puts) hasn't occurred yet like in past crazes.

Says this is something to watch, especially heading into earnings season.

This year, the pattern flipped: retail was selling, while institutional investors (hedge funds, asset managers) were placing upside hedges. Short-term memory is strong; investors don't want to be caught offside.

Adds that systematic investors like CTAs also entered when certain market criteria were met.

Earnings will increase dispersion and idiosyncratic moves. There's a big divergence in volatility between Nasdaq/tech and the S&P, partly due to SpaceX IPO potential and a reversion to Mag 7 trades.

AI will remain in focus unless Iran headlines dominate.

Before the rally, the term structure was steep and high, indicating worry about longer tenors (3-6 months out) regarding earnings, inflation, and midterms. Now it has flattened as everything came in, and it will re-steepen with earnings hits, especially as management discusses consumer impact from the energy shock.