Global stocks set for best week since June - how much is due to Fed cut expectations and what risks could derail momentum?
Tom Mackenzie
Mark Cudmore
Large part of market move due to Fed pricing - almost certainty of Fed cut in December after Williams speech
Mark Cudmore
Risk aversion that started end of October not fully exhausted yet, but AI capex bubble will continue to re-inflate enthusiastically into 2026 with much higher stock prices
What could trigger further move lower before year-end and are we underestimating fiscal impulse from US, Japan, and Europe?
Tom Mackenzie
Mark Cudmore
Framework very bullish overall into year-end with lots of liquidity from all sources, global growth holding up, Fed pressured for easier policy than orthodox economics suggests
Mark Cudmore
Short-term derailers: yields probably higher from here after pricing in dovishness, might get hawkish cut in December, not convinced they follow through in January