• Stocks globally returning to pre-war levels, questioning whether ceasefire extension is risk-on or risk-off given Strait of Hormuz closure uncertainty.
    speaker1
  • Adam
    Market has moved on from war to some extent, showing resilience to negative headlines and running with optimism.
    Points to potential economic reckoning from conflict impacts that could become equity factor, but AI/tech trade filling void with US tech up 13% MTD and TSMC earnings positive.
  • Adam
    Europe lacks big tech sector exposure, creating high bar for earnings to impress compared to US.
    Notes European luxury sector carrying weight but tech sector marked down despite good earnings.
  • Bull market listening to central banks telling them they're wrong.
    speaker1
  • Adam
    Bailey comment about markets being wrong led to repricing of about 100bps of hikes; bonds being more cautious in pricing out conflict impacts.
    ECB likely to hold in April as financing conditions do heavy lifting, with two rate hikes priced for ECB, less for BOE, until more clarity on war impact.
  • If equity market looking through conflict toward ceasefire, does that mean further unwind of dollar hedging?
    speaker3
  • Adam
    Dollar downside has more room to run but EUR/USD at 1.20 seems stretched.
    Whether ECB hikes or not will drive unwind; similar dynamic for pound; yen bulls face problem if BOJ doesn't hike despite cooked-in growth/inflation.
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