yields

We're likely going to see, therefore, rates stay a little bit higher for longer. They're going to come down, but they're going to stay higher for longer than what we've seen historically. The forecast is based on inflation peaking mid-next year but remaining above the Fed's target, leading to a 'higher for longer' rate environment.

yields

rates to come down in the US to around 3% by the middle of next year Expected decline in interest rates coupled with economic growth and dollar moderation supports risk assets

metals

nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 26 with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 26 Central bank diversification post-Russia sanctions, Fed rate cuts boosting ETF inflows, potential private sector diversification in small gold market relative to bond markets

rut

Russell 2000 is an indicator of small caps is up something like close to 10% this year... when it was likely that the Fed was going to cut, that's when you saw small caps take off Sees continued opportunity in small caps due to Fed cuts, valuation, and AI innovation in niche markets

ndx

they're going to continue to power the market higher Based on Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance as largest cap stock, with AI theme dominating market focus

yields

10 and 30 year yields are higher now than when Fed funds were over 5%, so for all this easing the long end isn't really responding at all Persistent inflation pressures and Fed lack of control over long end suggest continued upward pressure

metals

Gold is being part of that... It's negatively correlated. It does very well in such bubbles... I would rather be short debt in a sense Dalio explicitly recommends gold as hedge against government debt problems and sees it performing well during bubble periods

ndx

It strikes me that the market could pull back further from here. I do think that the technicals are kind of more bias for more protection and more downside Based on market pullback being healthy after strong run, concerns about AI returns meeting expectations, and technical indicators showing bias toward protection

metals

I think gold is going to be bigger than the dollar in global FX reserves within 2 to 3 years Fiscal dominance makes treasuries unsuitable as reserve assets; central bank gold buying accelerating; commodity markets much larger than gold will bid prices higher; gold already surpassed treasuries in reserves

yields

without sending 10-year Treasury yields to rates that I estimate to be somewhere between 4.6 and 4.8% which would start to trigger equity volatility Structural deficits and inability to term out debt without yield pressure; treadmill problem forces bill issuance but creates upward pressure on longer yields

yields

We certainly do because the short end coming down looking through over the next 12 months Expects yield curve steepening with short-term rates declining while long end may rise, creating uncertainty that takes froth out of equity markets

dxy

States dollar recoupled with interest rates and will stay stronger if US rates trend higher as he expects, following three-phase pattern of tracking rates, decoupling, then recoupling

metals

Gold is going to have a... it has had a fantastic year. It's up almost 60%... I think it's going to continue to perform very well. Gold is a hedge against something going wrong Cites political tensions, wars, inflation risks as reasons for gold's continued performance, recommends small position as warranted

ndx

Describes market as dominated by retail investors driving 17% returns mostly from AI stocks, with only 4-5% from everything else, suggesting concentration risk and potential for digestion phase

yields

I'm still of the opinion that we're in a long term secular rise in interest rates... once we break out of this long sideways action that we've been in for two years, then it'll probably be higher on the back of economic strength and on the back of stickier or uncomfortable inflation References hitting 5% in 2023 and current ~4% levels, sees inflation running 3-3.5% vs Fed target of 2% as problematic for bond market

yields

They cut rates in September on a risk management consideration; the Fed can cut more if the economy slows Labor market slowing due to demand; inflation steady but elevated; Fed's rate decisions reflect balancing inflation risk and labor market risks

dxy

The dollar has been on a pretty good run over a long period of time and it's certainly given back this year given some of the policy actions some of the gains. But the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. I don't see anything at the moment that threatens that. Despite recent depreciation, the speaker believes the dollar's fundamental reserve currency status is intact, and the recent decline is an appropriate adjustment rather than a sign of structural weakness.

ndx

It is likely to be a volatile ride. AI growth story is positive but investor nervousness and valuation concerns lead to expected volatility.

ndx

The NASDAQ shows weakness with tech leading declines and is on track for worst week since April. Market participants reacting to valuation concerns and mixed economic data are favoring downside risk for Nasdaq in the short term.

yields

We have reduced interest rate sensitivity, pulled some from the front end of the yield curve, focusing on carry and lower duration. The funds rate could move slightly lower from current break even levels. Due to sticky inflation and moderating employment, central banks are likely to pause and possibly lower rates slightly, leading to cautious down yields in the medium term.

yields

I think the Fed will cut in December. There's about a 70% chance of that baked into the futures market right now... The problems the American economy are facing are really not ones the Federal Reserve can fix and I think the Fed knows that. Labor market is softening, economic slowdown is ongoing, and government shutdown is worsening damage. Fed cuts are expected but are limited in ability to fix broader economic issues.

yields

I think we can move rates a bit lower. Stabilizing the back end of the yield curve to support mortgage rates and velocity; suggesting the funds rate around 3% and possibility to move rates lower to maintain economic activity.

yields

The data points to a slowdown in the labor market and about 70% odds of the Fed continuing its rate cutting cycle, which supports cautious downward pressure on yields in the medium-term.

yields

I'm comfortable that the Fed will deliver a rate cut at the December meeting despite uncertainty injected in Chair Powell's press conference. Labor market is weakening with hiring and openings down, while inflation pressures appear manageable and trending towards the Fed’s target after accounting for tariff effects, supporting expectations for a medium-term cautious decline in yields as the Fed moves to cut rates.

yields

The labor market is squishy and there is a downside risk to employment which is the rationale for the cuts. Also, the Fed Chair said several times that December's rate cut is not a done deal, indicating that the Fed is cautious and may cut rates but is not certain. The inflation target is around 2%, but current inflation remains above that. So the Fed may act cautiously by cutting yields in medium term. Given soft employment growth, downside risk to employment, and inflation above target, the Fed is likely to cautiously lower yields over the medium term but with uncertain outcomes due to data incompleteness.

ndx

David Solomon and Ted Pick stressed the correction could happen quickly and without a major trigger; a 10 to 15% pullback is a healthy pause, implying caution in the Nasdaq 100 due to valuation risks. The warnings on valuation and the risk of a correction due to AI hype imply caution on technology indices like Nasdaq in the medium term.

yields

We are constructive on the gilt market; longer term, tax rises or policy disrupting growth but preventing inflation moving higher is priced in; recent inflation numbers are constructive. Tax rises may be implemented in the UK budget, which could be disruptive to growth but expected to contain inflation; therefore, yields could rise cautiously over the medium term.

ndx

NASDAQ's up 16 of 17 years due mostly to earnings growth or dividends, and top stocks have earned their place; stick with US mega cap tech; difficult to pick market tops; view that Fed likely to cut rates in December supports positive outlook. Strong earnings growth and dividends have driven market gains historically; concentration does not predict a big sell-off; multiple fundamental supports (Fed easing, expected cyclical upturn, strong capex, flow of funds) argue against a market top.

ndx

We expect AI spending and adoption to continue growing, leading to a 15% productivity uplift over about a decade and a GDP boost starting in 2027. Increasing AI investment and adoption will drive significant productivity gains similar in magnitude to prior technological waves, supporting long-term market growth, notably in technology-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100.

wti

Supports our view that you sort of have another $10 per barrel of downside for oil prices over the next year; prices will probably come down somewhat more next year, the last leg lower before we likely recover. The earnings and supply data indicate a continuing supply growth leading to downward pressure on prices in the near to medium term, followed by a supply slowdown causing eventual recovery.

yields

The Fed's hawkish rate cut and growth revisions going up imply that yields are likely to move cautiously upward over the medium term.

yields

I think Myron could have gone for 75 basis points... Powell is losing his grip on the Fed. The speaker suggests that Fed policy may loosen soon due to a softer labor market and easing inflation risks, implying yields might decline cautiously in the short term.

yields

I think we'll get a reaffirmation that there'll be a cut again in December... So I think in line for another cut in December, at which point I think the Fed will want to take stock and see how things look early in the new year. The interviewee explicitly expects a Fed rate cut in December implying yields will move down cautiously over the medium term, but also notes uncertainty beyond that with a possible pause, indicating cautious sentiment.

yields

The Fed's widely expected to cut 25 basis points today; the market expects more cuts but the Fed will be less dovish than priced, implying front end rates rising a bit after the decision today. Because the Fed’s balance sheet reduction pressures and weaker guidance lower the likelihood of further aggressive rate cuts, short-term yields will be cautiously lower with some volatility.

yields

We're going to be more likely to ease rates than to tighten rates because most of the economy elements are weakening. The speaker highlights a divergence between a bubble in asset prices and weakening real economy, implying monetary policy will ease, which tends to push yields lower over the medium term.

yields

We're going to be more likely to ease rates than to tighten rates. Most of the economy is weakening. Monetary policy for both is not going to work because of the divergent elements.

ndx

"I think the market recognizes that this is the kind of innovation that this industry has needed." and "now we can innovate much faster." Partnerships and new product platforms specifically leveraging AI and accelerated computing will accelerate innovation in semiconductor and technology sectors, leading to a medium-term positive outlook for NASDAQ 100 stocks.

ndx

Over 40% of the economic growth in the second quarter was CapEx for technology. This driving the large gap between U.S. and European GDP and justifies maintaining a large overweight in the U.S. for at least 18 months.

yields

The Fed is getting closer to neutral interest rate range of 3.5 to 3.75. They are likely to cut in October but remain vigilant beyond that, guarding against weakening labor market while inflation is still above target around 2.75 to 3 percent. Due to inflation remaining above target and labor market dynamics, the Fed is cautiously approaching neutral rates with potential cuts, implying bond yields may drift moderately lower over the medium term.

ndx

We're expecting earnings to grow into 2026. The expectation is that the Fed is likely to be cutting... That's generally speaking been a Tailwind for stocks when the Fed is in an easing mode as long as we don't go into recession. That's not part of our forecast meaning that we're expecting the economy to grow... So I think those are the building blocks... I think the backdrop remains pretty solid for equities in that context. The interviewee expects earnings growth supported by Fed easing and corporate optimism about capital expenditures and AI adoption, which should support equity prices into 2026.

ndx

Consensus estimates for this quarter's earnings growth are low and we expect to clear that bar; the market can keep climbing from here. Strong earnings growth, cautious positioning, and Fed easing expectations support a short-term upward direction for the Nasdaq 100.

ndx

We think we're in the early innings of an uptrend here in the United States economic growth, earnings momentum that carries forward into 2026. Strong earnings and economic expansion along with anticipated Fed rate cuts underpin the expectation of a continued upward trend for US equities.

ndx

Some of these companies will be glad they spent all this money. Some of them will fail. There is a frenzy like in the internet bubble. AI is the biggest technical thing ever. Companies are investing heavily but face risks and some will be deadends. AI technology is transformative and valuable yet investors should expect volatility and a significant shakeout, similar to past tech bubbles.

yields

Looking at a range of 3.75% to 4.25%. 4% is a strong magnet currently. Next moves depend on payroll data once the shutdown ends.

metals

Gold is currently overbought but underowned, we raised the forecast to $5000 an ounce. Central bank demand and geopolitical tensions support gold. Expect consolidation but still worth owning for long term. Geopolitical fractures, central banks seeking alternatives to US dollar assets, and historical stability support a cautiously bullish long-term outlook for gold.

wti

There's been price rallies due to sanctions on Russian oil producers reducing supply, but also OPEC+ is adding production leading to surplus. Prices could be a little higher for 2-3 months but no shortage expected. Short-term supply constraints from sanctions temporarily push prices up, but increased OPEC+ production leads to surplus preventing sustained price increases.

yields

I think the case for lowering rates to make sure that the labor market doesn't continue to deteriorate makes sense. Probably Fed officials feel like it doesn't make sense to take the gamble of finding out if that's how things turn out. The labor market shows signs of weakening beyond what slower labor supply growth explains, and the Fed is cautious about risking further labor market deterioration, suggesting a medium term downward direction for yields.

ndx

I don't think we're in a bubble at this stage. Valuations are high but not extreme. The NASDAQ had a correction but recovered as fundamentals reasserted themselves. We're looking for a broadening out over the coming months. Tech sector dominance is supported by strong profit growth and fundamentals rather than speculation. The current capital expenditure is increasing but funded mainly from cash flow rather than excessive debt or equity issuance. Market breadth and diversification supports a cautious upward stance rather than a bubble scenario.

yields

THE MEDIAN EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL CUT AGAIN IN DECEMBER. THE FEDERAL RESERVE FACES DOWNSIDE RISK TO THE LABOR MARKET AND IS CAUTIOUS DUE TO LIMITED DATA AND UNCERTAINTY. Inflation pressures easing and economic adjustments are reducing risks of rate hikes, but downside labor market risks and data limitations make the Fed cautious, likely leading to lower yields in the short term.

metals

Stocks, bonds, cash, commodities, gold, it's all going higher. ... All the other non big central banks were buying gold big time since the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And China now has an insatiable appetite after not having any appetite for a long time. Gold buying is driven by Asian demand, particularly China, and central banks accumulating gold to protect from dollar exposure and sanctions risk.

yields

It does. It does that. It believes that there's going to be three more rate cuts, but the caveat I would give you is we're in a government shutdown. We haven't gotten any data. When that data comes out, if it's too strong, this could change.

dxy

The dollar is the only major asset not rallying currently and is relatively weak compared to other markets. Strong rallies in risk assets and inflation concerns reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar in the short term.

metals

Gold keeps setting new all-time highs and rallying sharply, driven by inflation fears and market dynamics. As inflation risk rises and dollar weakens, investors seek refuge in precious metals, boosting prices strongly.

ndx

Stock market is at all-time highs, supported by bullish animal spirits and passive investment inflows. Momentum and passive buying create a reinforcing mechanism for stock price increases, although risks remain.

yields

Fed is likely to cut rates to juice the economy, but that might be a policy mistake causing inflation and market backlash as happened last year when yields went up despite cuts. Given low population growth and job creation aligned to that, further stimulus via rate cuts is unnecessary and could destabilize bond yields.

yields

Edward Yardeni suggested the 10-year yield could hit 3.75 if oil continues to slide, indicating cautious downward movement; another 17 basis points move is plausible this month.

ndx

I think the long-term trends around this technology, the opportunity for productivity gains, for some great companies to be formed is really quite exciting. Growth opportunities from AI and technology will create winners in the tech sector, leading to a positive long-term outlook despite rebalancing and volatility.

yields

I would argue the latter that the 10 year rate should go up... long term rates are a little too low. Based on 3% sticky inflation and neutral rate ~1% above that, short-term rates (~4%) are appropriate, but long-term rates are mispriced low.

metals

I think we're going to take out $50 for the first time in Silver's history and we're probably going to keep moving higher. It's going to $75 or $100. Retail safe-haven flows into the small precious metals market are creating parabolic, speculative momentum expected to continue near-term.

ndx

Over the short term I think it will continue... The momentum of all of that constant bid from retail will continue. Retail-driven passive flows into indices, concentrated in AI stocks, are expected to persist in the near term despite overvaluation concerns.