dxy

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. In a crisis, the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand during geopolitical crisis provides short-term support, but longer-term deficit risks pose a threat.

yields

We know interest rates are going to be higher longer. Linked to inflationary pressures from the Iran war affecting fuel, fertilizer, and military spending.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

wti

Oil prices are coming down Attributed to potential Iran deal progress reducing geopolitical risk premium

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

ndx

Earnings, earnings, earnings, positive analyst revisions and the US is the oasis around the world. Bullish due to strong corporate earnings, positive analyst revisions, and US being preferred destination for global capital compared to other major economies.

metals

Bull case is like 81 to 86...within kind of the next few weeks...silver could get that kind of second leg higher into the 80s Based on constructive Iran talks leading to lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, with silver in structural deficit providing support.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

WTI crude oil jumping back above $100... May crude oil futures... up just about 8% here... The effective shutdown of the Strait drove energy prices sharply higher. The immediate catalyst is the geopolitical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The speaker frames this as a direct, sharp reaction to the news.

yields

reinforced those expectations that central banks may delay any kind of interest rate cut. The speaker directly links the energy price spike to expectations that central banks will delay rate cuts. Delaying cuts implies a 'higher for longer' stance, which is typically associated with upward pressure on yields, especially in the short term as the market reprices the timing of monetary policy.

ndx

Stock market is being lower... you're gonna have stock markets falling... Even the peak of the war, the S&P was down 4%. He directly links escalation to lower stock markets in the short term. However, he is overwhelmingly bullish on tech/AI long-term, calling it a 'secular boom' that will drive markets. The short-term 'cautious down' view is specific to the war escalation scenario.

wti

all price are going to be higher than otherwise... oil prices go to 150, 200... oil is at 120, 130, 140... oil can go towards 80, 80 plus. It's not going to go back to 60. Roubini's analysis is conditional on conflict scenarios. For de-escalation with Iranian control, he sees a sustained higher floor (~$80+). For full escalation, he explicitly forecasts prices reaching $120-$140+ in the short term (2-3 months). The direction is clearly up from pre-war levels in all scenarios, but the magnitude depends on policy.

yields

Bond yields being higher... bond yields higher. Explicitly stated as a consequence of the conflict escalation, due to higher inflation expectations and growth concerns.

wti

oil crashed 16% and then shot back over $100 Iran Strait toll crisis creating uncertainty; traders likely to sell off into weekend; different crude grades at varying prices.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

It's difficult to imagine why [oil prices] wouldn't be higher. His analysis of extreme physical stress, tanker shortages, incremental daily shortages, and the potential for Iran to 'extract maximum pain' strongly supports a sharp upward move in the short term.

wti

We're at day 30 and we're already up 40-50%. Refers to the current oil shock's magnitude and duration relative to historical averages.

yields

Supply shocks create inflation pressures and that creates upward pressures on rates.

yields

not only seeing yields go up Nominal GDP (real growth + inflation) is rising due to fears of more inflation than growth slowdown, driving yields upward. Market has shifted from expecting rate cuts to considering potential hikes.

ndx

directional equity convictions are neutral now for U.S. equities Neutral stance on directional US equities while focusing on thematic opportunities.

metals

Host Sam Vadas reported aluminum stocks rallied 10%+ due to Middle East supply disruptions, with Strait of Hormuz blockage potentially impacting 10% of supply. This points to upward price pressure on industrial metals from ongoing supply shocks.

wti

We are expecting for that paradigm shift in energy markets to occur. Brent prices go from like the 100-type levels per barrel to 150 per barrel in April. The base case scenario is shifting to the 'most bearish alternative scenario' due to the protracted conflict, indicating a near-term, sharp price increase is the firm's expectation.

yields

We've seen long-term interest rates rise by 25 basis points on the 10-year treasury... monetary authorities will suddenly have to hike. The stagflationary shock from the war (higher energy/food prices) combined with potential fiscal stimulus to buffer consumers will force monetary authorities to tighten policy to combat inflation.

wti

Markets should be preparing for protracted conflict. Her direct warning for markets to prepare for a long conflict, combined with analysis that Iran's Strait of Hormuz stance is a non-starter, explicitly indicates severe, sustained supply disruption risk and upward price pressure.

wti

World is losing 10-11 million barrels a day. It cannot be replaced... Getting through June would mean significantly higher prices through end of year. Strait of Hormuz closure is sustained supply shock with no quick replacement.

ndx

With that comes a technology trade... when you're going through tough times, particularly from a macro perspective, tech is relatively macro-agnostic asset class... that's where investors will be focusing on in moments of difficulty. Sees US tech as a relative safe haven and beneficiary of a flight to quality/resilience within the US market during the shock.

wti

We would certainly assume at this point in a time that oil prices... will stay fairly elevated through the rest of the year even if the conflict comes to an end in the next few days. The shift in dynamic where Iran, not the US, can call the shots means supply disruption risks are more persistent.

wti

chances are that as this continue to drag on, then the... a medium to longer-term oil price expectations will start to change as well. Explicitly states that the prevailing expectation of a quick oil price drop is wrong and that medium-term price expectations will rise due to the protracted conflict and supply damage.

wti

The size of this oil shock is unprecedented. The Strait of Hormuz has not been closed before. 20% of oil production. That is very material. Describing the shock as 'unprecedented' and 'very material' directly references the cause of the sharp price increase.

wti

You get long, buckle your seat belt and hang on for the ride... the upside here, I would argue, is substantial. Again, we want to be long... We haven't even really started the rebalancing process yet. Argues the current ~$100 paper price is massively disconnected from physical markets (~$130-$170). Uses the mirror of COVID's -$37 rebalancing price to imply a need for very high prices to destroy demand. Points to physical prices (Oman $173, jet fuel $220-$230) as a leading indicator. Sees no spare capacity and a supply shock equal to COVID's demand shock.

wti

In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Powell explicitly confirms a substantial, near-term rise in oil prices due to Middle East supply disruptions, characterizing it as a shock that will push up inflation.

yields

Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Powell explicitly states higher energy prices are inflationary and the Fed is watching the data closely. With inflation already elevated and risks to the upside, the implicit direction is for potential upward pressure on yields if the inflation shock persists, though the Fed is not pre-committing.

wti

substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East

yields

Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. Fed maintaining current policy rate suggests yields will remain stable in near term; no indication of imminent rate changes despite inflation concerns.

wti

Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Fed explicitly cites a 'substantial rise in oil prices' as a current factor, attributing it to Middle East supply disruptions. This is a direct observation of a price increase that has already occurred and is impacting near-term inflation expectations.

yields

The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year. Projected policy rate cuts imply lower short-term yields. The Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down suggests a dovish tilt, which would put downward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve over the medium term.

metals

Metals since 2020 are just a straight line going up... I want to own metal, I want to own gold Part of regime change to asset-heavy economy, cost structure rising, demand from EM diversification away from dollar assets

wti

Get long, buckle your seatbelt, hang on for the ride... I want to own oil Regime change structural shift, supply chain disruptions lasting months, hoarding adding demand, no policy solution, SPR inadequate

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude none. Massive supply chain disruptions (18M barrels/day), ineffective policy responses, and emerging hoarding behavior creating additional demand pressure.

dxy

given what you've just talked about with the increase in the value of the dollar globally just adds insult to injury. Energy priced in dollars, and the crisis-driven demand for dollars will strengthen it, worsening inflation for non-US countries.

wti

prices could rise another 50% or even higher before leveling off. Based on scenario of Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping (adding 20M bpd shut-in) and prolonged bombing of energy infrastructure, with Iran's new hardline leadership fighting for regime survival.

wti

price of oil doesn't go much higher Gasoline prices already up 20 cents in 2 days, potential for more oil infrastructure damage from geopolitical events

yields

bonds could sell off some more Inflationary pressure from energy prices, Fed concerned about rising PCE, potential for further oil price increases