dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

wti

Short war with oil at $80-90 probably won't have major effect, but if prolonged, all bets off.

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

wti

If this war with Iran... oil goes to 80, 90, 100... if it's short and not prolonged, it won't have a major effect. Explicitly sets a conditional price target range (80-100) in the short term if the war is contained, implying a sharp move up from current levels (~71).

metals

Gold is continuing to be an effective hedge in times of geopolitical volatility. Gold expected to perform well as a safe-haven asset amid conflict.

wti

Base case is what we're seeing playout right now, which is this introduction of new risk premium on politics into the oil price. This seven to eight dollar handle increase in the oil price overnight, not a spike to the 100 and above.

yields

I think the Fed needs to cut the rate. His call for Fed rate cuts is directly tied to his macro thesis of needing to 'run a hotter economy' to manage debt and stabilize the dollar, implying he expects lower policy rates and, by extension, lower yields.

ndx

Top line S&P index is very flat, NASDAQ down a little bit. You've seen a massive cyclical rotation away from the digital to the physical. She explicitly notes the Nasdaq is down and highlights a rotation out of digital (tech) into physical assets, indicating near-term caution on the NDX.

yields

The pain trade for this year was going to be a bullish flattening of the yield curve. We're starting to see that now. Michele is explicitly calling for lower yields (bullish flattening). He cites attractive valuations and client inflows into bonds.

dxy

We are only slight dollar bears for this year. Explicitly states a bearish, albeit mild, view on the US dollar.

ndx

Big tech very well may be interesting for those that might want to step back in to some of the softness we've seen recently. Positive on big tech fundamentals (20%+ earnings growth) and sees recent softness as a potential entry point, indicating a constructive view.

yields

We only look for one, maybe two Fed cuts. We don't see a huge southbound interest rate impetus to drive the US dollar lower. Expects very muted Fed action (1-2 cuts), implying a view that yields will not see a major downward move and are more likely to remain rangebound.

dxy

Now you have the Supreme Court overruling and the dollar saying, well this is more uncertainty therefore dollar down. We see that new path for the dollar as lower and think that last year was just the start of a multi-year trend.

metals

look at asset classes like gold, silver... which give you that protection Explicitly recommends gold and silver as diversifiers for protection in the current environment, implying a positive outlook.

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

yields

I still think that we can see 3.5% in the 10-year later on in the year. Expects four Fed cuts starting in June, back-end loaded, due to more anticipatory Fed stance under Waller.

metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

yields

We've been thinking 375 to 4 and a quarter sort of that ten year range. We went above it... We think that's an opportunity. Sees the rise above 4.25% as a buying opportunity, implying a view that yields will move back down into the stated range. The call for 'revenge of diversification' into duration is a bullish (yields down) view on bonds.

metals

We've been bullish on gold for the last 18 months or so... We think that demand is going to remain strong... We prefer gold as the core diversifier and see upside there. Gold seen as diversification against dollar exposure, geopolitical concerns, and inflation; structural demand from central banks and institutions supports continued upside.

ndx

We think we're probably in for a period of consolidation as tech companies continue to grow into these earnings. Tech is worst performing sector, market broadening suggests rotation away from pure tech concentration, but still likes tech story long-term.

metals

for tactical trade... commodities give it a downturn, give it a sell off, I think it's time to re-engage. The interviewee remains overweight materials, views the supply backdrop as favorable, and sees the recent correction as a buying opportunity ('time to re-engage'). This indicates a positive directional view, but the context of recent high volatility and a 'tactical' call suggests caution, not a 'sharp up' conviction.

dxy

we're projecting that dollar will decline about 1% annually over the next decade Dollar weakness cited as key driver for international market outperformance; projected annual decline suggests gradual, sustained downward trend rather than sharp drop.

dxy

the weaker dollar, the bearish dollar trade, I think is here to stay Pro-cyclical phase in cycle, global growth trends, Fed on hold

metals

half a percentage point increase in the gold allocations by private investors means gold at 6,000... over the next couple of years, gold at 8,000 Demand for diversification, private investors increasing allocations, emerging market central bank buying, industrial demand from data centers

metals

Now this year you're hearing lots of... conversations about metals. There's been a metal frenzy. that certainly plays into possible... weakening of the dollar the dollar debasement. Mentioned in context of current year trends and record flows into metals ($216B, 100%+ increase).

dxy

We think the dollar can still tactically weaken a little more from here. Cites market positioning and narrative tailwinds, but sees limits due to strong US fundamentals and potential election-related upswing.

metals

Links gold's strength to 'sell America, hedge America' and diversification due to discontent with US policy, implying continued supportive sentiment.

metals

Gold works in a portfolio... Gold is generally going to do well in those environments... There's also a broader rally going on in many commodities... this support for metals, not just precious metals... That's the start of the continued. He explicitly endorses gold as a hedge and notes a multi-year infrastructure trend supporting metals. The context is the current explosive price move, which he does not call overvalued.

yields

We think that does result in a bull steepener... led by the front end moving lower and not so much the back end moving higher. We don't think it's a huge move, but we do think the move will be downward in yields at the front end of the curve. Based on expectation of Fed rate cuts due to a productivity revolution enabling non-inflationary growth.

metals

We continue to look for significant additional upside from here... the path for gold prices here from here is higher. Primary drivers are structural central bank demand for diversification, Fed cuts, and stable supply (annual production is 100x smaller than outstanding stock). Private investor flows add upside risk but also uncertainty. The $5,400 target is a medium-term forecast.

metals

Gold being up 67% Central bank buying to diversify away from fiat currencies (USD, EUR) - described as 'the big move of last year, bigger than tech stocks'

yields

I expect it's going to be April... policy normalization needs to continue. Fujita explicitly forecasts a BOJ rate hike in April, which would put upward pressure on Japanese yields in the medium term.

metals

when you look at the gold being up 67%... It was bought by central banks, particularly by others, in order to diversify fiat currencies Identifies central bank buying as a primary driver for the 67% rise, framing it as a strategic move away from fiat currencies, indicating continued strong demand.

metals

these prices of gold and silver will continue to go higher... the momentum trade in precious metals is going to stay so strong that they're going to continue to go higher. Primary driver is Chinese demand due to economic trouble, capital flight, and central bank buying to de-dollarize. US retail buying is secondary. Sees no change in this dynamic for 'next several months.'

dxy

Thinking that the dollar is going to rebound and get strength and strengthen throughout 2026. Positioned 5% of his index conviction bucket in dollar index forward contracts as of December, indicating a firm directional view.

yields

I think rates are going to go higher... That combination is going to push rates up. Fundamentals (sticky inflation ~2.7%, strong growth, massive deficit spending) argue for higher yields, but political pressure (Trump) is forcing an outlier move down. Bianco expects fundamentals to win out or cause a market rejection if Fed cuts prematurely.

wti

I still think that that'll be the case... crude oil prices start to drift higher for the first at least first half of the year. Underlying fundamentals (stronger end-of-year economy, demand, exhausted one-off production deals) support a rising price trend over the coming months.

yields

I think that the outlier of the 10-year yield being down in 25 is going to reverse and it's going to be a little bit higher. The 2025 decline was an artificial outlier driven by political pressure, inconsistent with higher US growth, inflation, supply, and global yield trends, suggesting a reversion.