metals

Pettit describes gold as a 'really easy inflation trade' that people go to when concerned about runaway inflation. He notes ETF flows and momentum trading, framing it as a hedge for longer-term inflation risks, suggesting a cautiously positive outlook.

yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

yields

it will drive rates higher, not lower Political interference with Federal Reserve independence undermines credibility and could lead to inflationary expectations, forcing higher rates.

yields

We think all things considered, there is room to cut the policy rate in the second quarter by 10 basis points. That's our forecast. Room for cut is constrained by net interest margin at record low; PBOC will use cuts sparingly and efficiently. Monetary support may mostly be liquidity injection to prevent bond yields from rising.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

I still like gold as well... We are just going through this huge debasement cycle right now. And I think that's likely to continue... Every time there was a debasement cycle, the S&P 500 underperformed gold, which is happening right now. And I think that could potentially continue if the debasement cycle continues. Thesis based on long-term historical currency debasement cycles (4th since 1800s) driven by fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP, and inflation. Gold outperforms equities during such periods.

rut

I still like the Russell 2000... For small caps to outperform you need speculation... you need a good manufacturing cycle. And I think we are on the cusp of a potential manufacturing upcycle for the first time in three years. Rotation from mega-caps to small caps driven by fiscal tailwinds and a changing market reaction function where higher rates are now seen as cyclical, not restrictive. A potential manufacturing upcycle provides fundamental support.

yields

If we are... I think... Rates can go down and still a fair amount... I do [see rates lower at the end of this year]. Conditional on seeing convincing evidence that inflation is on a path back to 2%. The direction is cautious due to the explicit conditionality and noted concerns about persistent services inflation.

yields

I think rates can come down... I do [see rates lower at end of year] Conditional on convincing evidence inflation returning to 2%. Sees progress but non-housing services inflation still concerning at >4% annualized.

rut

We're neutral small caps... We're gonna remain more neutral in that space. The explicit 'neutral' stance, supported by a multi-year pattern of earnings estimate downgrades, translates to a 'sideways' directional view for the Russell 2000 (RUT).

ndx

all of these points to a pretty robust US equity market outlook Superior earnings power, AI long-term growth, capex, and supportive fiscal policy ahead of midterms underpin strength. Fed cuts less relevant.

wti

We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days and WTI up to around $66-67. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran/Russia-Ukraine conflicts, supply disruptions, and shift from bearish to neutral/slightly bearish view due to demand/supply uncertainty.

yields

Market prices in a little over two Fed cuts this year; likely at least some will happen. First couple cuts seem more certain. Expects 10-year Treasury to be in a pretty tight, stable range for rest of year. Expects Fed to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on front-end yields, while long-end remains rangebound.

metals

it's just a big momentum trade... could go for a lot longer Driven by hedge fund momentum, central bank diversification from dollar reserves after geopolitical events (Russian assets), and as a hedge against dollar debasement/inflation.

dxy

A gradual reduction in rates towards the rest of the world. It means weaker dollar. It doesn't mean a collapse in the dollar.

yields

The Federal Reserve has already set up the market for interest rates to move to 3% by the end of the year. The market is already set up for rates to go lower.

metals

Key commodity remains gold... 5300 with a high conviction will get there. Positioned as the 'ultimate geopolitical hedge' against dollar exposure and current uncertainties.

metals

after this parabolic move... one has to be worried about a potential period of profit taking The sharp, parabolic rise since early December and recent spikes in platinum/palladium create vulnerability to short-term corrections and profit-taking, despite the strong fundamental backdrop.

metals

Direct analogy to gold going from 2,000 to 4,500 during previous hoarding episode. Raw industrial materials chart showing tightness and rising quickly. Hoarding of raw materials expected similar to precious metals. New order to inventory ratios turning up indicating demand for inventory.

wti

That's a recipe for a spike in prices right now. Record short positions, demand picking up (not slowing), geopolitical risk at all-time high, hoarding behavior beginning, supply vulnerable in dark fleet ships.

yields

they're not going to move this month or next month because of this Markets are discounting the political noise and focusing on FOMC dynamics, expecting no immediate policy change despite the investigation.

yields

I think the Fed's got to get the rate down at 3%. I think that's closer to equilibrium. Argument is based on addressing a 'labor problem' and allowing an 'over levered' economy/government to 'breathe'. This is a policy prescription implying lower policy rates, which would generally pull down yields.

wti

an over supply market will see prices trending down... our base case... with Brent averaging 56 Base case is for lower average prices due to a substantial surplus, despite acknowledging a short-term geopolitical risk premium.

dxy

The dollar is now trading at 3% risk premium discount to its model values... If we see this escalate tensions with the Fed, I think that premium will widen and the dollar will continue to trade at the discount.

metals

Gold has many tailwinds... Next 10% for gold should be easier from here because there's just so many tailwinds propelling the gold higher.

yields

One of the most important aspects of the news and as reflected in the market, it's simply a steepening of the yield curve in the U.S. when people are concerned about Fed independence... People get worried about long-term inflation and you're seeing reflected in gold prices rising, but you're also seeing it reflected in long-term yields going up relative to short-term yields.

dxy

it is quite difficult and challenging for the US dollar.

metals

The dollar weakening is positive for commodities, particularly precious metals. Cites three drivers: better global growth, weaker dollar, and geopolitics.

ndx

it could weigh negatively on US equities, particularly if you're an international investor. Due to dollar weakness and preference for international assets.

dxy

dollar falling... dollar weaker against everything Explicitly states dollar weakness as part of market reaction to Fed independence concerns.

metals

gold and silver catch that really strong bid again today Links metals strength to combination of political risk (Fed independence threat) and geopolitical risk (Iran), with both undermining dollar and driving haven flows.

ndx

stocks... falling... all US assets falling in tandem Describes knee-jerk reaction to Fed news with US futures down about half percent, part of 'sell US' narrative.

dxy

factoring in that the geopolitical tensions do feed into the US dollar weakness that we are expecting more from a strategic and structural standpoint as well. Geopolitical noise and a shift in capital allocation away from the US are structural drivers for dollar weakness.

metals

We've already allocated to gold for the last two years in our strategic asset allocation framework... maintain the gold allocation as a sort of the ballast you have in the portfolio. Positioned in anticipation of geopolitical changes and currency market flux.

yields

we're relatively neutral on duration, because of the uncertainties that we're seeing in terms of where rates go going forward. Uncertainty on timing of Fed rate cuts due to political pressure and data dependence.

metals

Gold is testing new highs. That's what gold is telling you. Gold cited as indicator of elevated geopolitical risk from Venezuela situation and broader risks (Iran, Russia). Current price action (testing new highs) presented as evidence of risk environment.

yields

Right, because I think it goes back to the ambiguity it has been dealing with... It's going to be harder to be convicted to say I want to be longer duration or shorter. Government shutdown, stale data, uncertainty about new Fed chair, current range 4.1-4.2%

metals

the scope for some short-term selloff is there... platinum price again is vulnerable to short-term profit taking Massive price increases since November create vulnerability to profit-taking despite longer-term upward trend.

yields

longer term, our biggest concern would be a move higher in long term rates He explicitly identifies higher long-term rates as his biggest longer-term concern, specifying a threshold of 4.50%-4.75% on the 10-year yield. This is a directional view, not just a risk factor.

yields

We now have the Fed on hold for the rest of the year. January cut off table, focused on unemployment rate not showing weakness, changed Fed call to no cuts

wti

We almost have no oil in our allocation. We're almost completely out. Position is based on fundamental surplus story, not politics. Would close short tactically below $60 on Brent, sees floor around $55 due to shale economics.

yields

Front end is mispriced by up to 50 basis points to the upside. Cites Dec 2026 futures level vs. effective Fed funds, arguing one rate cut priced out could imply a hike tail risk.

wti

for producers, there's a sweet spot for oil prices. And if we go too low, we have too much supply. It's not profitable for them to drill The argument centers on a balancing act: prices must be high enough to incentivize production investment but low enough to aid consumer affordability. This describes a range-bound or sideways dynamic, not a clear directional call for 'cautious down'.

ndx

The AI and data center spending boom continues. Continued AI/data center spending is cited as a key economic tailwind. The overall shift from a stagflationary to a more optimistic, potentially overheating outlook with strong capex (aided by 100% expensing) is supportive for growth-oriented tech stocks.

wti

We have tailwinds... coming from lower oil prices. And what's happening in Venezuela is likely also further going to add more supply to the oil market and therefore more downward pressure on oil prices. Explicitly cites lower oil prices as a tailwind and points to increased supply from Venezuela as a source of continued downward pressure.

yields

I'm looking for a handful of cuts. Cuts are driven by view that underlying inflation is within noise of target and unemployment indicates slack.

metals

Nuclear has to be part of the solution... Cameco... great way to get exposure. Explicit bullishness on uranium (a metal) due to necessity for baseload power to meet rising demand from data centers, anticipating 2.6% CAGR power demand growth.

rut

We've been recommending small caps. Explicit recommendation of small caps as part of broadening trade, particularly in first half with >3% GDP growth creating pro-cyclical environment.

yields

We have four, two on the tenure at the end of the year. About where we are today. Explicit forecast for 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2% at year-end, similar to current levels, indicating sideways movement.

dxy

Dollar is not acting as a safe asset. As long as dollar remains relatively weak...

wti

Oil price reaction muted. Fears of disruption vs. increased Venezuelan production curbing prices.

dxy

I still think we're in a case for a dollar weakness this year... monetary policy expectations would really put a backstop to any dollar strength because it really supports dollar weakness on a relative perspective here.

yields

A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance... yields across the curve would rise, but yields at the front end of the curve would rise even more.

yields

I think we get bond yields creeping a little bit higher... I would not be taking duration risk in the US at the moment. Stronger labor market and persistent inflation from reshoring/defense spending pressures.

wti

path of least resistance for oil prices is probably lower Assumes Venezuela deal improves access to oil reserves, boosting global supply, continuing the downward trend of the past year.

yields

longer term, looking out for the rest of the year, I won't be too surprised if we start to see a moderate uptick in longer term treasuries. And our call in our 2026 outlook was to see a little bit of a steepening of the yield curve. Expects Fed cuts (1-2 times starting mid-year) to potentially steepen the curve, with longer-term yields rising moderately.

ndx

Pricing is going up in cloud. Spot pricing is starting to go up. That tells you about the demand being generated all over the world. All told, we should have a very good year. Strong cloud pricing and demand growth indicates continued bullish outlook for tech/AI sector through 2026.

dxy

we project further dollar weakness but at a slower pace than 25... should allow the dollar to continue to weaken, but at a much slower pace than we saw last year. Reasoning based on cyclical factors: loss of yield advantage (Fed cuts vs. other central banks) and global growth convergence reducing US exceptionalism, alongside a large external deficit.