dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

ndx

this is a buying opportunity McCarteny explicitly frames the geopolitical sell-off as a buying opportunity, citing strong underlying tailwinds like the 'AI revolution' and 'double digits earning boom.' She notes a 'flight to safety in large cap U.S. stocks,' which includes NDX constituents.

wti

if oil goes up and is sustained at 90 for a considerable point in time Presents a conditional, risk-based scenario from UBS: sustained $90 oil for six months would have a measurable negative economic impact (60 bps off consumer spending). This frames the direction as cautiously upward, dependent on conflict duration.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

dxy

when you get panic... higher liquidity profile garners a premium... when people get fearful, that's where they go [to the dollar]. Explicitly states the dollar benefits from its liquidity during panic/risk-off events like the current geopolitical shock.

yields

only once before in 1990 did interest rates go up or bond sell-off... we're seeing the market kind of set the tone for where rates want to go. Draws parallel to 1990, a similar commodity-driven inflationary period following US involvement in conflict, suggesting the current situation is driving rates higher.

wti

Short war with oil at $80-90 probably won't have major effect, but if prolonged, all bets off.

wti

Oil has to stay in eighty eighty five dollars for at least three to four months for having meaningful inflation impact. Sees a prolonged period of elevated oil prices as necessary for a significant macroeconomic impact, implying a view that prices will be sustained at higher levels, not just a short spike.

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

wti

You could see oil trade even lower later today... if they release SPR.

wti

If this war with Iran... oil goes to 80, 90, 100... if it's short and not prolonged, it won't have a major effect. Explicitly sets a conditional price target range (80-100) in the short term if the war is contained, implying a sharp move up from current levels (~71).

wti

This is a stagflationary impulse... Prices go up Explicitly states the shock causes prices (i.e., oil/energy) to rise.

yields

we will mostly trade in the range of 4 to 4.5 Based on bond market shift from growth/flight-to-quality concerns to inflation concerns, with 10-year up 10bps after ISM data, but range-bound unless financial instability emerges.

metals

Gold is continuing to be an effective hedge in times of geopolitical volatility. Gold expected to perform well as a safe-haven asset amid conflict.

wti

Base case is what we're seeing playout right now, which is this introduction of new risk premium on politics into the oil price. This seven to eight dollar handle increase in the oil price overnight, not a spike to the 100 and above.

ndx

I would expect to see continued volatility on an intraday basis. While not giving a pure price direction, she explicitly forecasts continued intraday volatility. This is a 'volatile' directional call for the short term. Her emphasis on severe underlying weakness (avg member down >25%) supports a fragile, churning environment.

wti

I would not fade this current spike... I would be careful fading it because it starts to become much more serious... this is going to be a structural repricing... the risks are to the upside. Geopolitical risks from Iranian proxies create protracted supply disruption risks; hoarding by China/India increases demand; OPEC capacity constraints limit supply response; two-supply-chain world requires higher inventories.

yields

We now have the lowest mortgage rates in over 3 years, they're under six percent. and then 10 UtreasureCarct the 4% level. And so that's very, very bullish. So as rates come down, it will cause the Fed to cut. Falling goods prices (deflationary) recognized by bond market as bullish, leading to lower yields. Expects Fed cuts to follow.

metals

gold geopolitical premium has a lot of risk of heading back lower as we had deeper into training this coming week. Gold is extremely stretched versus historical metrics (60-month moving average, vs crude oil), and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce its risk premium.

wti

I'm fully expecting, come Monday, Kudau [crude] will probably be lower. Expects OPEC+ coordinated production increase, Trump election motivation for lower energy prices, and post-invasion relief to pressure prices.

metals

maybe in even in a gold to go lower Gold, like crude, has seen a risk premium due to the conflict. His expectation of global relief and lower risk premiums applies to gold as a safe-haven asset.

wti

We should expect the premium and crude oil to be lower... I think risks are might be might see a little bit more relief. and we had lower as we had in New York's money open. Believes the significant risk premium (~$10/bbl for Brent) is already priced in for a potential supply disruption he views as unlikely. Expects relief unless there is a major, unexpected escalation.

yields

The path of least resistance seems to be towards lower yields... The concern seems to me towards low yields... the safe haven bid is going to come into the back end of the yield curve. Cites risk-off sentiment, geopolitical concerns, AI disruption fears, and market positioning (call/put skews) pointing to lower yields, despite acknowledging sticky inflation and a strong economy.

ndx

We've cut our long-term estimate on the multiple for the market from 22 to 20... We're probably in a kind of single digit return market here, not a double digit return market. Auth explicitly cuts valuation multiple for the market (which is heavily tech-weighted) and forecasts single-digit returns, implying downward pressure on NDX. He highlights Mag7 losing free cash flow premium and software facing margin pressure from AI competition, directly negative for tech-heavy NDX.

yields

I think the Fed needs to cut the rate. His call for Fed rate cuts is directly tied to his macro thesis of needing to 'run a hotter economy' to manage debt and stabilize the dollar, implying he expects lower policy rates and, by extension, lower yields.

dxy

I'd be very surprised if the USD is not weaker in five years' time. He cites expensive valuation, historical cycles, and the Trump administration's policies encouraging diversification away from the dollar as reasons for a long-term bearish view.

yields

For the Fed, my view is they're not going to do anything for the next 6-12 months. Expects the Fed to be on hold, implying a rangebound period for policy rates and, by extension, front-end yields. Notes ambiguity on whether AI-driven productivity would ultimately lead to higher or lower neutral rates.

ndx

Top line S&P index is very flat, NASDAQ down a little bit. You've seen a massive cyclical rotation away from the digital to the physical. She explicitly notes the Nasdaq is down and highlights a rotation out of digital (tech) into physical assets, indicating near-term caution on the NDX.

yields

The pain trade for this year was going to be a bullish flattening of the yield curve. We're starting to see that now. Michele is explicitly calling for lower yields (bullish flattening). He cites attractive valuations and client inflows into bonds.

yields

I'm pretty optimistic that we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026, as long as we see the progress on inflation. His focus is on needing to see inflation progress before cutting, implying a cautious downward path for yields, not an immediate sharp move.

dxy

We are only slight dollar bears for this year. Explicitly states a bearish, albeit mild, view on the US dollar.

ndx

Big tech very well may be interesting for those that might want to step back in to some of the softness we've seen recently. Positive on big tech fundamentals (20%+ earnings growth) and sees recent softness as a potential entry point, indicating a constructive view.

yields

We only look for one, maybe two Fed cuts. We don't see a huge southbound interest rate impetus to drive the US dollar lower. Expects very muted Fed action (1-2 cuts), implying a view that yields will not see a major downward move and are more likely to remain rangebound.

yields

What is happening is more of a steepening of global yield curves through the longer end of the curve rising... Real rates are rising because of excess supply of government debt globally and because of increased productivity. This is a healthy steepening of the global yield curve. The interviewee explicitly describes the yield curve steepening due to the long end rising, driven by real rates. The tone is positive ('healthy'), indicating an expectation for yields to move higher, but the context of a 'Goldilocks' scenario and a 'holding pattern' for central banks suggests a measured, 'cautious' upward move.

dxy

Now you have the Supreme Court overruling and the dollar saying, well this is more uncertainty therefore dollar down. We see that new path for the dollar as lower and think that last year was just the start of a multi-year trend.

wti

there will be an immediate reaction to the market and it will be significant. So the risk premium will go up quite substantially. Strait of Hormuz handles 20M barrels/day with limited alternatives; any closure would create immediate supply disruption fears.

yields

I do think that that's going to keep it yields elevated... we do think that there's probably a floor on how much lower Treasury yields can go. Inflation remains above Fed target for five years, economy continues to grow, creating upward pressure on yields with a floor established.

dxy

It's not good for the dollar on the surface but that's mainly a cyclical factor talking about the growth decline. Acknowledged dollar is down and benefiting other currencies, attributing it to cyclical growth factors rather than secular trend.

dxy

I think the dollar's been falling... and I'm in the camp that the dollar could continue to fall... the dollar could go down for a little while more. A weaker dollar benefits US exports and manufacturing, aligning with political goals. Dismisses catastrophic 'debasement' narratives.

ndx

I think there is a big rotation and that rotation is away from software and some tech... The software companies are being hurt. It's their growth models are changing. AI is collapsing the cost of software, directly challenging the pricing power and growth models of major tech/software companies that dominate the NDX.

wti

That's why I think that there is go... that we've seen the price of oil going up... if there is going to be a regime change that there's going to be big disruption in the oil markets right away. Geopolitical risk from potential US kinetic response/regime change in Iran threatens disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint.

yields

I don't think the Fed should cut rates anymore. Whether they should hike rates, I'm not ready to go there, but let's just start with they should not cut rates anymore. Argues for a 'higher for longer' rate environment in a post-COVID economy with stickier inflation. His 5% bond return expectation implies rates stabilize at elevated levels, not trending down.

metals

look at asset classes like gold, silver... which give you that protection Explicitly recommends gold and silver as diversifiers for protection in the current environment, implying a positive outlook.

wti

Crude oil which is down only slightly today, but back up around $66 and you know that there is premium risk premium uncertainty put in the crude oil market Geopolitical tensions with Iran, Trump decision pending in next 10 days, risk premium in futures despite supply/demand favorable for lower prices

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

ndx

We have this idea that we're going to rotate out of really highly valued sectors like technology into the industries that need it... If you start to kind of have wrinkles and some sort of constraint on credit in those areas... how can you rotate, at least in the U.S.? Argues the rotation from tech to cyclicals is fundamentally flawed because the cyclical industries depend on easy credit (private credit) which is now showing stress. This implies near-term pressure on tech/NDX as the rotation narrative fails.

yields

I don't agree [that yields have to bounce] for a number of reasons. Look at what's happening in Japan. Japan's inflation is lower, Japan's rates have started to turn to lower. We are still in a fungible global bond market and people are looking for the highest yields. We still think the Fed is going to cut three times this year. Global disinflationary pressure from Japan, Fed cuts, and fading fiscal concerns support lower yields. The bond rally is described as 'defensive' amid equity rotation.

wti

We've had a bear market bounce... The consistent trend in crude oil is any time you get these bounces on potential supply disruption events in the Middle East. It puts in peaks. The Western dominated producers sell forward and prices go back downward... This is just adding to that bear market sensitivity... Typically takes a little spike, cleanse the shorts, and then you go back down. Historical pattern shows Middle East tensions create temporary peaks; Western producers increase supply during spikes; Political pressure from US administration to lower prices; Supply shifting to Western Hemisphere reducing import dependence

metals

I've always been a gold bug because fiat money is inherently inflationary. A lot of the demand for gold in the last three or four years had come from central reserve managers buying gold. Sees gold as a hedge against fiat inflation and geopolitical diversification. Demand from central banks is a structural support. Does not express a direct short-term price forecast, but the thesis is bullish long-term.

ndx

That really does call into questions. Some of those high-beater named rallies that we've seen over the last three or four months where really I would be rotating away again from the small caps, more towards the Mag7 where the valuations look much more reasonable now. Implies a near-term rotation away from high-beta/small-cap names (which have been rallying) and back toward Mag7, suggesting relative underperformance for the broader NDX/small-cap complex.

wti

This could be weeks long, a month-long campaign, which is why you see crude prices higher as well because... What does Iran do? What can they do to fight back? Part of that could be closing the straight of Hormuz... choking off a huge port when it comes to crude oil going through in and out of the region. Geopolitical risk from potential U.S.-Iran conflict is cited as a direct cause for higher crude prices, with escalation expected to last weeks/months.

yields

The next couple of weeks if we go from 4.10 back to 4.30... Do we really care?... It's probably something tactically that you can position for. I wouldn't be buying treasuries here... that move is largely really a bond market move. It is not high enough to hit that danger zone.

dxy

that should be supported for the dollar. So that gets dolly into the sort of 157158 level. Based on view that US front-end rates could head higher, supporting dollar.

yields

Brunton rates will probably remain pretty range bound with a sort of 25 to 30 basis points range until we get a better sense as what the new Fed Chair. could deliver in the second half this year.

ndx

As long as big tech does not go down, the market can go up as it broadens... I don't see a lot of upside, but again... even modest upside, I think, will keep us at very much above average rates of change. The Mag 7 is in a holding pattern, but market breadth is improving. The condition for NDX (big tech) is stability, not strong outperformance.

yields

The Fed is basically at neutral... The Fed's long-term neutral is 2% inflation plus 1% r-star and that's 3%... at 2.4% plus 1% r-star, you're at 3.4, the Fed's at 3, and not very much above that. The Fed is basically at neutral.

dxy

The broad view for us on the dollar is actually one that's relatively balanced this year and we will go through these periods where it's stronger because of the data and maybe the more hawkish fed but could also trade weaker if we get some of these kind of almost tail risk type events.

yields

This is consistent for us with our long-held view that the Fed will keep policy rates on hold for a long time now.

metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.