yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

dxy

Fundamentals, rate differentials would point to a firmer dollar from where we are now. Question right now is, are we seeing a fundamental shift in terms of how global investors allocate? Or will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least let's say a rangebound dollar versus a weaker dollar from here.

yields

I still think that we can see 3.5% in the 10-year later on in the year. Expects four Fed cuts starting in June, back-end loaded, due to more anticipatory Fed stance under Waller.

yields

We've been in this very narrow range, 375 to 4 and a quarter for a while. I think that range is fine. Fundamentals don't argue for much higher rates; if labor market stays stable, yields remain in current range; only economic weakness would drive yields lower.

metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

yields

We've been thinking 375 to 4 and a quarter sort of that ten year range. We went above it... We think that's an opportunity. Sees the rise above 4.25% as a buying opportunity, implying a view that yields will move back down into the stated range. The call for 'revenge of diversification' into duration is a bullish (yields down) view on bonds.

metals

We've been bullish on gold for the last 18 months or so... We think that demand is going to remain strong... We prefer gold as the core diversifier and see upside there. Gold seen as diversification against dollar exposure, geopolitical concerns, and inflation; structural demand from central banks and institutions supports continued upside.

ndx

We think we're probably in for a period of consolidation as tech companies continue to grow into these earnings. Tech is worst performing sector, market broadening suggests rotation away from pure tech concentration, but still likes tech story long-term.

metals

for tactical trade... commodities give it a downturn, give it a sell off, I think it's time to re-engage. The interviewee remains overweight materials, views the supply backdrop as favorable, and sees the recent correction as a buying opportunity ('time to re-engage'). This indicates a positive directional view, but the context of recent high volatility and a 'tactical' call suggests caution, not a 'sharp up' conviction.

dxy

we're projecting that dollar will decline about 1% annually over the next decade Dollar weakness cited as key driver for international market outperformance; projected annual decline suggests gradual, sustained downward trend rather than sharp drop.

dxy

the weaker dollar, the bearish dollar trade, I think is here to stay Pro-cyclical phase in cycle, global growth trends, Fed on hold

metals

half a percentage point increase in the gold allocations by private investors means gold at 6,000... over the next couple of years, gold at 8,000 Demand for diversification, private investors increasing allocations, emerging market central bank buying, industrial demand from data centers

metals

Now this year you're hearing lots of... conversations about metals. There's been a metal frenzy. that certainly plays into possible... weakening of the dollar the dollar debasement. Mentioned in context of current year trends and record flows into metals ($216B, 100%+ increase).

metals

We are likely to have another two cuts this year... This will continue to support ETF buying of gold. Lower Fed rates make gold cheaper to hold; ETF positioning has increased with rate cuts.

wti

We expect prices to move below $60 a barrel for Brent. Fundamental oversupply is the primary driver, but a current $8-10 risk premium exists due to geopolitical tensions.

yields

We are likely to have another two cuts this year, only later in the year. Implies downward pressure on yields from anticipated Fed easing.

dxy

We think the dollar can still tactically weaken a little more from here. Cites market positioning and narrative tailwinds, but sees limits due to strong US fundamentals and potential election-related upswing.

metals

Links gold's strength to 'sell America, hedge America' and diversification due to discontent with US policy, implying continued supportive sentiment.

metals

Gold works in a portfolio... Gold is generally going to do well in those environments... There's also a broader rally going on in many commodities... this support for metals, not just precious metals... That's the start of the continued. He explicitly endorses gold as a hedge and notes a multi-year infrastructure trend supporting metals. The context is the current explosive price move, which he does not call overvalued.

yields

We think that does result in a bull steepener... led by the front end moving lower and not so much the back end moving higher. We don't think it's a huge move, but we do think the move will be downward in yields at the front end of the curve. Based on expectation of Fed rate cuts due to a productivity revolution enabling non-inflationary growth.

metals

We continue to look for significant additional upside from here... the path for gold prices here from here is higher. Primary drivers are structural central bank demand for diversification, Fed cuts, and stable supply (annual production is 100x smaller than outstanding stock). Private investor flows add upside risk but also uncertainty. The $5,400 target is a medium-term forecast.

metals

Gold being up 67% Central bank buying to diversify away from fiat currencies (USD, EUR) - described as 'the big move of last year, bigger than tech stocks'

yields

I expect it's going to be April... policy normalization needs to continue. Fujita explicitly forecasts a BOJ rate hike in April, which would put upward pressure on Japanese yields in the medium term.

metals

when you look at the gold being up 67%... It was bought by central banks, particularly by others, in order to diversify fiat currencies Identifies central bank buying as a primary driver for the 67% rise, framing it as a strategic move away from fiat currencies, indicating continued strong demand.

yields

Not yet. If you look at Japan, Japan has a whole host of domestic things to deal with. So that's become unanchored. When I look at the US market, yeah, we backed up a little bit. But you know what? We've got a Fed funds rated about three and five-eighths, the two years within touching distance of that. You've got some would have a normal steepness to the Yield Curve from Fed funds to twos to the 10 year and the 30 year. It all feels pretty orderly now, a bit of a pause. Michele contrasts the 'unanchored' situation in Japan with the US, where the curve has a normal steepness and things feel 'orderly.' He does not express a directional view on US yields moving significantly up or down in the near term, implying stability or sideways movement.

metals

I would be tilting toward gold and have a greater than normal amount to that... They're still short of gold. Gold is framed as a strategic reserve currency and diversifier in a breaking monetary order, driven by central bank buying and geopolitical conflict reducing appetite for fiat debt.

metals

Gold continues to perform very, very well... playing its traditional role... That's likely to continue. We wouldn't want to be overly focused on gold. Supported by debasement risk and geopolitical uncertainty, but framed as a traditional, possibly temporary hedge, not a core long-term conviction.

yields

US Treasury yields, we think over time, long-term yields likely to go up. Part of the thesis that the old 60/40 portfolio is inadequate in a fractured world; a headwind for traditional strategies.

metals

these prices of gold and silver will continue to go higher... the momentum trade in precious metals is going to stay so strong that they're going to continue to go higher. Driven by massive buying from Asia, especially China, where economic trouble and desire for protection are fueling demand. Central bank buying to de-dollarize adds to momentum.

yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

yields

it will drive rates higher, not lower Political interference with Federal Reserve independence undermines credibility and could lead to inflationary expectations, forcing higher rates.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

Key commodity remains gold... 5300 with a high conviction will get there. Positioned as the 'ultimate geopolitical hedge' against dollar exposure and current uncertainties.

yields

I think the Fed's got to get the rate down at 3%. I think that's closer to equilibrium. Argument is based on addressing a 'labor problem' and allowing an 'over levered' economy/government to 'breathe'. This is a policy prescription implying lower policy rates, which would generally pull down yields.

wti

an over supply market will see prices trending down... our base case... with Brent averaging 56 Base case is for lower average prices due to a substantial surplus, despite acknowledging a short-term geopolitical risk premium.

wti

for producers, there's a sweet spot for oil prices. And if we go too low, we have too much supply. It's not profitable for them to drill The argument centers on a balancing act: prices must be high enough to incentivize production investment but low enough to aid consumer affordability. This describes a range-bound or sideways dynamic, not a clear directional call for 'cautious down'.

metals

Nuclear has to be part of the solution... Cameco... great way to get exposure. Explicit bullishness on uranium (a metal) due to necessity for baseload power to meet rising demand from data centers, anticipating 2.6% CAGR power demand growth.

rut

We've been recommending small caps. Explicit recommendation of small caps as part of broadening trade, particularly in first half with >3% GDP growth creating pro-cyclical environment.

yields

We have four, two on the tenure at the end of the year. About where we are today. Explicit forecast for 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2% at year-end, similar to current levels, indicating sideways movement.

dxy

I still think we're in a case for a dollar weakness this year... monetary policy expectations would really put a backstop to any dollar strength because it really supports dollar weakness on a relative perspective here.

yields

A ruling against Trump would increase bill issuance... yields across the curve would rise, but yields at the front end of the curve would rise even more.

ndx

Pricing is going up in cloud. Spot pricing is starting to go up. That tells you about the demand being generated all over the world. All told, we should have a very good year. Strong cloud pricing and demand growth indicates continued bullish outlook for tech/AI sector through 2026.

dxy

Thinking that the dollar is going to rebound and get strength and strengthen throughout 2026. Positioned 5% of his index conviction bucket in dollar index forward contracts as of December, indicating a firm directional view.

yields

I think rates are going to go higher... That combination is going to push rates up. Fundamentals (sticky inflation ~2.7%, strong growth, massive deficit spending) argue for higher yields, but political pressure (Trump) is forcing an outlier move down. Bianco expects fundamentals to win out or cause a market rejection if Fed cuts prematurely.

wti

I still think that that'll be the case... crude oil prices start to drift higher for the first at least first half of the year. Underlying fundamentals (stronger end-of-year economy, demand, exhausted one-off production deals) support a rising price trend over the coming months.

yields

I think that the outlier of the 10-year yield being down in 25 is going to reverse and it's going to be a little bit higher. The 2025 decline was an artificial outlier driven by political pressure, inconsistent with higher US growth, inflation, supply, and global yield trends, suggesting a reversion.

yields

those types of numbers will produce higher 10 year yields through our 2026. Based on expectation of strong growth (4.3% GDP) and sticky inflation (upper 2%), combined with fading political pressure that drove 2025 anomaly.