dxy

I think the dollar's been falling... and I'm in the camp that the dollar could continue to fall... the dollar could go down for a little while more. A weaker dollar benefits US exports and manufacturing, aligning with political goals. Dismisses catastrophic 'debasement' narratives.

ndx

I think there is a big rotation and that rotation is away from software and some tech... The software companies are being hurt. It's their growth models are changing. AI is collapsing the cost of software, directly challenging the pricing power and growth models of major tech/software companies that dominate the NDX.

wti

That's why I think that there is go... that we've seen the price of oil going up... if there is going to be a regime change that there's going to be big disruption in the oil markets right away. Geopolitical risk from potential US kinetic response/regime change in Iran threatens disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint.

yields

I don't think the Fed should cut rates anymore. Whether they should hike rates, I'm not ready to go there, but let's just start with they should not cut rates anymore. Argues for a 'higher for longer' rate environment in a post-COVID economy with stickier inflation. His 5% bond return expectation implies rates stabilize at elevated levels, not trending down.

metals

look at asset classes like gold, silver... which give you that protection Explicitly recommends gold and silver as diversifiers for protection in the current environment, implying a positive outlook.

wti

Crude oil which is down only slightly today, but back up around $66 and you know that there is premium risk premium uncertainty put in the crude oil market Geopolitical tensions with Iran, Trump decision pending in next 10 days, risk premium in futures despite supply/demand favorable for lower prices

wti

If we do get some actual attack and we get some actual impact on production or exports. Oil is gonna... shoot above that, we will see a spike Current price reflects high-side of $3-$10 risk premium; actual disruption would cause further spike. Spare capacity tight, amplifying upside risk.

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

ndx

We have this idea that we're going to rotate out of really highly valued sectors like technology into the industries that need it... If you start to kind of have wrinkles and some sort of constraint on credit in those areas... how can you rotate, at least in the U.S.? Argues the rotation from tech to cyclicals is fundamentally flawed because the cyclical industries depend on easy credit (private credit) which is now showing stress. This implies near-term pressure on tech/NDX as the rotation narrative fails.

yields

I don't agree [that yields have to bounce] for a number of reasons. Look at what's happening in Japan. Japan's inflation is lower, Japan's rates have started to turn to lower. We are still in a fungible global bond market and people are looking for the highest yields. We still think the Fed is going to cut three times this year. Global disinflationary pressure from Japan, Fed cuts, and fading fiscal concerns support lower yields. The bond rally is described as 'defensive' amid equity rotation.

wti

Current $72 price is at top end of $3-10 risk premium analysts have been talking about - pricing in risk of some action. If there's actual interruption to oil supply, prices could spike even higher. Geopolitical tensions with Iran creating risk premium, with potential for further upside if supply disruption occurs.

dxy

Middle East tensions add to dollar allure in short term. Hawkish Fed minutes, fading labor market risks, and geopolitical uncertainty supporting dollar strength.

wti

It's quite conceivable that the geopolitical risk premium and crude oil could go meaningfully higher than where it is now... The initial response would be probably a spike in shorter dated futures and spot prices. Military buildup and threats to Strait of Hormuz disruption (20-30% of global seaborne throughput) could drive short-term spike.

wti

We've had a bear market bounce... The consistent trend in crude oil is any time you get these bounces on potential supply disruption events in the Middle East. It puts in peaks. The Western dominated producers sell forward and prices go back downward... This is just adding to that bear market sensitivity... Typically takes a little spike, cleanse the shorts, and then you go back down. Historical pattern shows Middle East tensions create temporary peaks; Western producers increase supply during spikes; Political pressure from US administration to lower prices; Supply shifting to Western Hemisphere reducing import dependence

metals

I've always been a gold bug because fiat money is inherently inflationary. A lot of the demand for gold in the last three or four years had come from central reserve managers buying gold. Sees gold as a hedge against fiat inflation and geopolitical diversification. Demand from central banks is a structural support. Does not express a direct short-term price forecast, but the thesis is bullish long-term.

yields

I think that the recent rally that we have seen at the long end wonies, aren't terrible. I don't think that the tenier yield is... is going to be validated anytime around 4.06 levels that it was hovering around earlier. So I think that if you've got the Fed that is going to that is inclined to be cutting rates, despite sticking inflation, that is going to send yields at the long end higher because investors are going to want an inflation premium stuck into the 10 year and the 30 year majorities.

ndx

That really does call into questions. Some of those high-beater named rallies that we've seen over the last three or four months where really I would be rotating away again from the small caps, more towards the Mag7 where the valuations look much more reasonable now. Implies a near-term rotation away from high-beta/small-cap names (which have been rallying) and back toward Mag7, suggesting relative underperformance for the broader NDX/small-cap complex.

wti

This could be weeks long, a month-long campaign, which is why you see crude prices higher as well because... What does Iran do? What can they do to fight back? Part of that could be closing the straight of Hormuz... choking off a huge port when it comes to crude oil going through in and out of the region. Geopolitical risk from potential U.S.-Iran conflict is cited as a direct cause for higher crude prices, with escalation expected to last weeks/months.

yields

The next couple of weeks if we go from 4.10 back to 4.30... Do we really care?... It's probably something tactically that you can position for. I wouldn't be buying treasuries here... that move is largely really a bond market move. It is not high enough to hit that danger zone.

yields

In 2 years time, 10-year yields at 6% and then it will be a problem. Based on expectation of global cyclical upswing and growth improvement, not inflation.

metals

I have real issues with silver... It is not gold. Silver is small, easily manipulated, industrial substitution risk (solar), became a meme stock. Precious metals (gold) are the current debasement trade story.

wti

I think that this could go much higher. Geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz), China stockpiling, traders hedging weekend attacks with call options, potential for Iran disruption. Administration wants lower prices for elections but may not be able to control it.

dxy

that should be supported for the dollar. So that gets dolly into the sort of 157158 level. Based on view that US front-end rates could head higher, supporting dollar.

yields

Brunton rates will probably remain pretty range bound with a sort of 25 to 30 basis points range until we get a better sense as what the new Fed Chair. could deliver in the second half this year.

metals

We were significantly higher here in the middle of the night. For backing off here, we're led down by copper, which is down about 1.5%... gold is down about 15 basis points and silver is down about 5%. Metals retreating from overnight highs, with copper leading declines. ETF flows show selling in silver, mixed for other metals. Elevated volatility but downward pressure evident.

ndx

NASDAQ showing most weakness among indices, with FANG stocks weaker. Mentions AI cannibalism among tech names as concern.

rut

You get the Russell 2000 down 11 at 2651.40 that's down just about 0.4%. Small caps down but less than NASDAQ. Interviewee believes small caps would be 'much less impacted' by geopolitical events than large caps.

wti

WTI crude oil... up one and a half percent here. Up a dollar at $66.05... If you're going to trade on the geopolitical front here and you believe that oil will be greatly impacted, especially to the upside on that. Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran-Israel) create short-term upside pressure, but recommends front-month contracts due to transient nature of past conflicts.

yields

10-year Treasury yields tracking a bit higher here, of course, with the energy prices. Energy price increases (oil up 1.5%) putting upward pressure on yields via inflation expectations (energy = 6% of CPI).

dxy

Creating demand for safe haven assets, such as the US dollar. I think that will... continue heading into the weekend and maybe next week as well. Geopolitical tension viewed as negotiating tactic boosting USD near-term, but medium-term view is for USD softness due to rate cuts.

metals

Expect more increase in a price of gold. Safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions (US-Iran).

ndx

As long as big tech does not go down, the market can go up as it broadens... I don't see a lot of upside, but again... even modest upside, I think, will keep us at very much above average rates of change. The Mag 7 is in a holding pattern, but market breadth is improving. The condition for NDX (big tech) is stability, not strong outperformance.

yields

The Fed is basically at neutral... The Fed's long-term neutral is 2% inflation plus 1% r-star and that's 3%... at 2.4% plus 1% r-star, you're at 3.4, the Fed's at 3, and not very much above that. The Fed is basically at neutral.

dxy

The broad view for us on the dollar is actually one that's relatively balanced this year and we will go through these periods where it's stronger because of the data and maybe the more hawkish fed but could also trade weaker if we get some of these kind of almost tail risk type events.

yields

This is consistent for us with our long-held view that the Fed will keep policy rates on hold for a long time now.

metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

yields

I think that there's probably more upside with longer term yields Factors like higher Japanese yields, tariff concerns, and debt/deficit loads put a floor on yields and prevent them from going much lower, suggesting upward pressure on longer-term yields.

yields

Several participants indicated they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. First Fed commentary on rate hikes in years; focus shifted to inflation; concerns disinflation slower due to tariffs, AI spending, demand; inflation may stabilize higher, prompting Fed action.

wti

I think in the first year, we'll see pretty significant, 30, 40% growth in Venezuela and all products in this year. You can continue production growth rate at a pretty good class. The forecast is for Venezuelan oil production, not directly WTI crude price. However, a significant, rapid increase in production from a major reserve holder (Venezuela) would typically add to global supply, which could be bearish for WTI. The interviewee's tone is bullish on production volume, not price. Therefore, the previous 'up' direction for WTI is invalid. No explicit WTI price forecast was made.

wti

In the first year, we'll see pretty significant, 30, 40% growth in Venezuelan oil production this year. Increased Venezuelan production (world's largest reserves) coming back online with U.S. investment and licensing would increase global oil supply, potentially putting downward pressure on WTI prices. However, the explicit forecast is for production growth, not price direction. No explicit WTI price forecast was made.

yields

Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. First commentary from Fed about rate hike possibility in years; inflation concerns dominant with risks of slower disinflation from tariffs, AI spending, and demand stimulus.

ndx

This is a market... defined by three words: volatility, dispersion... you can see lot more dispersion and fragmentation Transition from AI hype to reality, market for lemons theory causing overshoots, need for bottom-up stock picking rather than sector-wide buying

yields

Yeah, I think we'll see it going back towards four, four and a half... So I think we are in a range for 4 to 450, with the average being closer to 450 than it is to four Administration worried about mortgage affordability may lead to yield curve control

dxy

Dx, y, down, roughly 10% last year. Our forecast is it goes down another 10% for this year. And then I would say it probably doesn't have much further to go because investors don't have many other options. Expect continued dollar weakness but limited room after ~20% total drop. Safe-haven flows in conflict could go to Swiss franc or yen rather than dollar.

wti

you could prepare for some sort of a sustained attack and that would of course be able to prop up the price of oil... you can see how quickly if you took off 20 million barrels, how quickly the price could go up weight in well-passed $100 a barrel. Geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions and potential Strait of Hormuz disruption. Rule of thumb: every 100k barrels/day offline moves price ~$1. 20M barrels offline could push >$100.

yields

if potential growth is higher, the equilibrium real long rate and also the real short rate has to be higher... once you have a growth of 3% the equilibrium real rate has to be at least 3% Roubini's core thesis is that AI-driven productivity will raise potential GDP growth to ~4%. He explicitly links this to a higher equilibrium real interest rate, implying upward pressure on nominal yields. He argues against cuts, seeing risk of overheating.

yields

interest rates are going to need to go higher. Reasoning is based on the premise that if 3% becomes the effective inflation target (with PCE risk at 3%+), and the Fed is already walking back rate cut calls, then higher rates are necessary. The term is 'medium' as he frames this as a 2026 period shift.

metals

Gold, silver, oil as well... commodities has been a place that has added some value to your portfolio going into the beginning of this year.

wti

Attributes oil price rise to Middle East tensions and weather; says 'I would expect some volatility there.'

dxy

Dollar will continue falling. Dollar will be falling substantially versus DM currencies like Japanese yen or other European currencies.

metals

If commodity prices... copper prices... iron ore prices decline which is my baseline scenario for next let's say 6 to 12 months.

yields

We have two cuts for the rest of the year, to 3.25%. Explicit forecast for two BOE rate cuts implies lower short-term UK gilt yields. The view is conditional on data not weakening further.

metals

$5000 isn't an unreasonable target... Gold has structural tailwinds. Explicitly mentions a $5000 target for gold, citing structural drivers like central bank buying and debt monetization, while acknowledging volatility.

yields

I think they cut in March, yes.

wti

Longer term, I think, you know, at tortoise we think $70 is probably a good, it's kind of the good, goli-lox scenario price Current $65 price includes $5 geopolitical risk premium; $70 balances producer returns with consumer affordability and inflation concerns; acknowledges upside risk from potential supply disruptions but sees base case as stable.

ndx

I think we might be in for a little bit of a range bound choppy market with regard to some of those areas of the marketplace. Refers specifically to areas impacted by AI disruption/software sell-off. The 'choppy, rangebound' view is driven by 'sell first, ask questions later' dynamic and lack of clarity on top-line revenues until analysts potentially catch down to price action.

metals

It's a much more choppy path but still a climb higher for gold in particular. Cites structural central bank demand as a persistent tailwind, but acknowledges near-term volatility from speculation. Does not explicitly say 'down' in the short term; the core thesis is for a continued climb.

yields

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from over 4.28% to under 4.04%, a 24 basis point drop... Favorable inflation news is raising speculation the Fed may cut rates sooner. The interviewee describes a factual, significant drop in yields linked directly to positive CPI data and market anticipation of Fed policy easing. The tone is descriptive of a recent, sharp move, implying a near-term downward trend.

dxy

dollar next trade at 96.96 Dollar mentioned in context of other currencies moving, with rate cut expectations potentially weighing on dollar.

metals

Gold is up about 17% year to date... gold silver ratio sits at 65 to 1... probably gonna see a continued upward movement as traders are going more into the gold market with the stagflation type of narrative playing out. Gold outperforming with stagflation narrative, but silver rangebound and struggling with ETF outflows - mixed picture for metals complex.

rut

Best performers were the Russell 2000 and also the gold market Outperformance linked to lower yields and stagflation narrative benefiting small caps.

wti

energy which makes up about 6% of CPI sitting at 62.88 up 13 ticks Mentioned as component of CPI with recent uptick, part of stagflation watchlist but no explicit directional call.

yields

10-year Treasury yields... down at 4.05%. It's been declining significantly. Soft inflation data supporting rate cut expectations, yield curve flattening indicating stagflationary environment.

metals

constructive copper price environment that we are in The interviewee's entire commentary is bullish: revising production guidance upward, planning significant capacity expansion, highlighting strong byproduct revenues, and describing the price environment as 'constructive'. This implies expectation of sustained or higher prices to justify increased investment and production.

yields

There's been a pretty sizable drop in long term interest rates... There's further expectations of Fed rate cuts, which is driving the entirety of the yield curve to see a rally... We do think the Fed will be cutting rates, you know, at least twice. Expects Fed cuts due to mixed labor data, inflation moving toward 2%, and geopolitical risks. Hard to see big further decline unless something goes wrong.

metals

longer term I think they can go higher Central bank buying support for gold, silver as high-beta gold, buy-on-dips strategy.

ndx

in the longer term I think lot of software is going to be trouble. A lot of these software stocks can go even lower than where they are now even the good ones. Software sector facing structural threats; distinguishes between tactical bounce and longer-term decline.

ndx

I think it has tremendous staying power. It will be the determining point of market and profitability and productivity for the next decade... I think we're not only not in a bubble, but we're actually going to see an acceleration... This is a market that is actually going to accelerate growth. His entire thesis is built on AI driving long-term market growth, productivity gains, and profitability. He dismisses bubble concerns, predicts acceleration, and frames volatility as temporary within a strong upward trend.

yields

We quite like JGBs a little bit tactically... cautiously constructive. Tactical bullishness on JGBs implies lower yields. For UK gilts, direction is conditional on political stability; a rally (lower yields) is 'plausible' if politics is calm.

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

yields

We don't really think this trend is going to continue to see the 10-year yield move meaningfully lower, say below 4%, maybe to get down to that 3-3-4% area... all of those factors should keep yields elevated. Near-term reaction is down (4.06%), but medium-term view is rangebound/sideways due to: 1) No expected recession/slowdown, 2) Inflation still elevated, 3) Debt supply concerns, 4) Global yield competition.

metals

"I think the risk is that it's going to roll over." (on industrial metals); "I think gold's run most of its course and it's just very, it's too risky to be long at here"; "I think this is going to be a down year for silver"; "I still view it as a prudent short." (on silver) Thesis is based on: 1) High correlation with a potentially peaking S&P 500. 2) Prices are historically stretched (aluminum >3000, gold vs. 60-mo MA, silver at record ratios). 3) Demand concerns from China (deflation, speculation crackdowns). 4) The universal commodity rule: 'up too much' leads to a shift down.

dxy

Dollar has been falling... diversification away from the US... president is all in favor of a weaker dollar... opens the door to a softer dollar.

yields

If core inflation is running around 2.5%, that's basically at the Fed's target. They can reduce policy rates from a slightly restrictive stance. Hollenhorst expects disinflation to continue, giving the Fed room to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

yields

Fed not going to be looking to cut rates when inflation is going up at their target number to 3%. If the Fed is not cutting because inflation (PCE) is rising, it implies a less dovish policy stance than the market expects, which would put upward pressure on yields, especially at the front end. The tone is cautious ('not going to cut') rather than aggressively hawkish.

yields

the 10-year yield has come down for sure Statement made in context of softer CPI data causing a positive market turnaround.

dxy

Dollar has been falling over the last year or so after decade long rally. What you're seeing is investors writ large start to move into other markets that are doing better. It seems as if the president is all in favor of a weaker dollar, and that sends a certain signal to the market. Along with all the geopolitical risks, it just opens a door to a softer dollar.