yields

We've been thinking 375 to 4 and a quarter sort of that ten year range. We went above it... We think that's an opportunity. Sees the rise above 4.25% as a buying opportunity, implying a view that yields will move back down into the stated range. The call for 'revenge of diversification' into duration is a bullish (yields down) view on bonds.

dxy

Dollar will tend to be a little bit more sticky... the starting now is going to be a little bit more stable in terms of dollar.

metals

Precious metals is very crowded trade year to date. Some rally supported by fundamentals... but some is purely hype chasing. We would like to stay with companies with visible earnings instead of chasing those hypes.

ndx

We think the market may be go too fast, too far. Sustainability of the US AI rally would be the key risk to watch for this year.

wti

A U.S. strike on Iran is likely... but a spike in oil prices is a risk, but it's not going to happen. Base case is heightened volatility due to high strike probability, but a sustained spike is conditional on Iranian response targeting oil infrastructure. Current premium is only $3.

dxy

In the last few weeks, since the summer, it has fluctuated within a range. Whether you look at the euro-U.S. dollar or nominal effective exchange rate the story is the same. Lagarde describes recent EUR/USD movement as rangebound, implying the dollar index (DXY) is also in a range.

yields

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path. Policy is on hold with a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting stable rates in the near term.

metals

We've been bullish on gold for the last 18 months or so... We think that demand is going to remain strong... We prefer gold as the core diversifier and see upside there. Gold seen as diversification against dollar exposure, geopolitical concerns, and inflation; structural demand from central banks and institutions supports continued upside.

ndx

We think we're probably in for a period of consolidation as tech companies continue to grow into these earnings. Tech is worst performing sector, market broadening suggests rotation away from pure tech concentration, but still likes tech story long-term.

ndx

these typically are buying opportunities... this will prove to be quite a buying opportunity... stocks are on sale Views sell-off as overreaction, not systemic, with historical precedents of rebounds; sees current weakness as opportunity.

yields

The Fed will cut, whether it is Kevin Warsh or anyone else, they will have the right reasons to be cutting rates. Based on labor market softening, easing wage inflation, reduced tariff pass-through, and a favorable base effect in H2.

metals

In the last year, the dollar has gone down, gold and silver have gone up as you would expect... and they've gone up 100%. Silver is up even more. We're seeing a lot of client interest in silver and gold. 8.5% of our option volume last week was silver or gold related options. That's a dramatic increase from a typical week. So there's tremendous retail interest in the space. He explicitly reports strong recent price performance (100% up) and cites a sharp, recent increase in client trading activity (option volume) as evidence of 'tremendous retail interest.' This describes current momentum and sentiment, implying a near-term 'up' direction.

metals

When you have a break in gold and silver like that. Usually it's a three or four month thing... you could have them go lower than people expect, you know, in a sell-off. He sold 75% of silver and 25% of gold at highs, calling it a classic retail-driven top. He expects a 3-4 month consolidation period where prices could go 'lower than people expect' before potentially rebounding later in the year or next.

wti

you might have to go through a soft period for a while where oil goes back to 50 or 55 or something goes lower. He acknowledges near-term demand/price weakness due to economic 'soft period' and market perception of a glut, but his core thesis is that this is a buying opportunity for a major move higher over the next two years.

yields

He warns against owning 20-30 year treasuries ('I just don't think that's going to work for you here'). His concern about future 'financial repression' (the Fed buying bonds while inflating) and the massive $39T debt load implies he sees upward pressure on long-term yields over the medium term as these risks materialize, particularly by 2027.

metals

the surge in gold... gold has outperformed Bitcoin... we're seeing this incredible run by gold Gold is explicitly stated to be outperforming Bitcoin and on an 'incredible run,' acting as a superior hedge against global instability. The direction is clearly 'up,' though the term 'sharp up' from the previous answer was an over-interpretation; 'up' is more conservative and accurate.

ndx

They're not gonna win the year. I continue to think tech stocks are up big this year... It's year three of an eight to ten year build out. Frames the current sell-off as a mid-cycle panic within a multi-year (8-10 year) AI infrastructure build-out, leading to a positive full-year forecast for tech stocks.

metals

If we go below 70, that would be the first time for a couple of months. That's probably where the last people who got in the short term momentum players will probably have to give up their positions... you could see a fast acceleration there as people are forced... it could get ugly.

dxy

I think the pickup in the dollar really goes back to what I said about US data. US data has picked up of late... So there's this broadening picture of US strength... it's this removal of tail risks and this dollar risk premium that was sort of embedded in the price and that's coming out offering the dollar some footing. Links dollar strength to improving US economic data and reduced political risk premium from Fed chair nomination.

ndx

the damage the NASDAQ 100 is doing below the 100-day, you're starting to think about those November lows in terms of a technical level as to where we could trade, which wouldn't be great. Discusses ongoing rotation out of tech, self-reinforcing sell-off in software/AI names, and technical breakdown.

dxy

Dollar index kind of stabilizing here, sitting at about 97.46. Not too explosive to the upside nor the downside more consolidating waiting for more data Explicitly described as consolidating/stabilizing, not trending

metals

silver up 8.3% rally higher, gold up 2.78%, silver 265% gain over last 12 months, massive ETF inflows into silver (31.8M oz largest one-day increase) Technical breakout patterns, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF flows reversing from outflows to massive inflows

rut

I've been a bull on this Russell 2000 for quite a while now, Russell 2000 earnings really starting to accelerate and they're out accelerating like the S&P 500 Small businesses benefiting from AI adoption, productivity improvements, breakout after April lows, Fed rate cuts optimism for small businesses

wti

WTI crude oil futures getting a boost here, really holding above that 60 mark here in his bullish trend Geopolitics and OPEC rhetoric supporting prices at 63.42

yields

10-year Treasury yields remain right at the top end of the range here at 4.29% Described as at top of range, not breaking out, with Fed watching tool showing low near-term rate cut probability

metals

Gold will move more methodically up over the course of the year. Warsh-led Fed bodes well for gold - creating good environment for gold. Structural shift in gold demand intact, central bank buying provides support floors, silver benefits from critical minerals policy designation.

dxy

The dollar is off about 8.4% from its cyclical high on the 13th of January 2025... It's been moving sideways actually for a couple months... When people keep talking about how the dollar is collapsing, they're simply not telling the truth... The dollar's not collapsing. It may decline in the long run, but it also may do well. Dollar has declined from recent highs but still significantly above longer-term lows; currently moving sideways with acknowledgment of potential long-term decline but not imminent collapse.

metals

We can be very bullish about silver prices in the long run rising above last year's $40 average price, while at the same time saying we don't think prices will rise sharply from the intraday high of $121.79 last Thursday... Anybody who sees something rise 135% in two months ought not to be surprised to see it fall back and give up half of that increase when the speculative fervor dissipates. Recent sharp decline seen as natural correction after speculative spike; metals still in bull market long-term but short-term caution due to speculative excess being worked out.

metals

for tactical trade... commodities give it a downturn, give it a sell off, I think it's time to re-engage. The interviewee remains overweight materials, views the supply backdrop as favorable, and sees the recent correction as a buying opportunity ('time to re-engage'). This indicates a positive directional view, but the context of recent high volatility and a 'tactical' call suggests caution, not a 'sharp up' conviction.

ndx

I think that it was the sort of lead on the way up and we're gonna see it be a bit of a lead on the way down. Tech sector decline due to fundamental concerns (high valuations), fading AI hype, and broader macro risk-off sentiment with poor job numbers and shaky consumer confidence.

metals

I think the one word to describe the metal's mark markets right now is volatile... I wouldn't trust a rally just like I wouldn't trust a sell-off... I expect it to continue frankly. Cites large recent price swings in gold as evidence of the current whippy, two-way trading environment.

ndx

futures, eminence and nastict, both higher on the day Attributed to positive reaction (beat-and-raise) from a major software/AI component (Palantir) of the index.

metals

Gold to me is still a diversification story... I think there is a fundamental support there that would make me personally want to stay in that trade. She differentiates gold (diversification, dollar/inflation/crisis hedge) and silver (cyclical, supply chain story). Acknowledges recent speculation and profit-taking but sees underlying support for gold, arguing it's not purely speculative like Bitcoin. This is a fundamental, medium-term bullish view.

dxy

Dollar index sliding in this overnight session a bit. Dollar index 9747 ticking a bit here since start of recording. Seeing dollar index come off. Hawkish Fed rhetoric starting to dissolve according to speaker. Euro currency getting boost. Inverse correlation with metals suggests dollar weakness.

metals

April gold big snapback in the overnight session up about $282 sitting at 4935. High was 4974 just below 5,000 mark. March silver looking at the verge of another breakout to the upside. Dollar index sliding helping boost gold market due to 92-93% inverse correlation. Gold up 13% year to date. Potential for FOMO buying and algorithmic trading if gold breaks 5,000.

ndx

NASDAQ up 100 points. Stock futures up a bit here with S&P 500 firmly over 7,000 mark. Strong earnings with Palantir blockbuster beat and other major companies reporting. Positive momentum in broader markets with European stocks at record highs and Asian stocks bouncing back.

wti

Now we're seeing crude oil futures stabilizing pushing a bit back up here 6225. Recovering from big selloff yesterday on Iran talks. Stabilization suggests potential rebound after sharp decline.

dxy

Dollar as safe haven, no it's not, at least not this week, but maybe next week. Explicitly states the dollar's safe-haven role is currently broken, implying near-term volatility and lack of clear direction.

metals

I do think that the bull market in industrial metals, precious metals is still intact.

yields

To me, the rise in long term interest rates, the elevated levels should be a big focus of people. Cites RBA rate hike as evidence global inflation pressures persist, supporting a view of higher yields.

dxy

You're gonna see a weaker dollar against the creditor currencies... the dollar fall against the yuan... against the yen... against the euro... versus the Swiss Franc. The dollar's weakness is a direct consequence of the system unwind: loss of reserve status, weaponization, and devaluation needed to manage debt. A 'currency system transition' implies a long-term downtrend for the dollar.

metals

Gold is going back into the system as a reserve asset and rising in price... Gold could have way more upside than many people think even possible. The entire thesis is built on the 'Free Gold' unwind, where gold absorbs global surpluses. He cites JP Morgan's $8500+ target and historical parallels (1930, 1972, 2002) as evidence of a major, sustained move. Also bullish on base metals (copper, nickel) due to inflationary bottlenecks.

ndx

NASDAQ is down 45% versus gold since early 2024... Bitcoin's just levered NASDAQ... with capital leaving, Bitcoin's reacting to that. Views NASDAQ as a 'capital flow phenomenon' vulnerable to outflows (e.g., China stopping purchases). Sees a continued 'cool off in tech names' and shift to metals for the next few quarters. Does not 'love equities broadly here.'

metals

We have a long-term view on both copper and gold and we still remain position there Copper driven by AI infrastructure electrification; gold as hedge against dollar debasement, fiscal deficits, geopolitics.

ndx

This is a secular rout... right now it's more of a sentiment of a momentum wind down

ndx

I would expect more volatility, right? So you're having a new Fed chair. It's also a midterm election year, and both of those historically bring volatility. Based on historical patterns of Fed transitions and election years affecting equity markets; recommends low-vol strategies.

metals

I don't believe that our days of $100 silver and 5,000 ounce gold are behind us here... I believe that gold will continue to march on. And the same thing with silver. Views recent sharp sell-off as healthy correction after massive gains. Fundamentals (supply deficits, industrial demand, Basel 3, central bank buying) support higher prices long-term. Expects bottoming process this week, then resumption of uptrend.

yields

You see the yield curve steepening to interest rate cuts June and December. It's the exact same as before. Explicitly mentions yield curve steepening to rate cuts in June and December, indicating expectation for lower yields.

metals

When I talk to our gold strategist... he thinks the uncertainty story is going to stick around this year... you kind of do this with one hand and you do this with the other hand... that's what's been going on a lot in my world. She directly references her firm's gold strategist view that uncertainty supports gold. She describes a market dynamic where investors use gold to hedge equity/macro risks separately from their equity allocations, implying ongoing demand but also susceptibility to shifts in risk sentiment, leading to volatility.

ndx

AI jitters coming back into the market... the PE multiple... hit a ceiling... top 10 market cap names... priced for perfection, not a lot of room for error... healthy appetite... for diversification away from some of these big mega cap growth names. She explicitly cites high valuations, a ceiling on multiples, and investor desire to diversify away from mega-cap tech, pointing to near-term pressure and a lack of catalysts for significant upside.

rut

The Russell 2000 didn't do well after the pick... we saw it get hit again on Friday... the short-term trade equivalent is the Russell 2000 because fast-money hedge funds like to bid it up on Fed dovishness and sell it off when their dovishness goes too far... they're just not cheap anymore. Explicitly notes poor performance post-Fed news, frames it as a speculative short-term trade vulnerable to Fed sentiment shifts, and states valuations are no longer attractive.

dxy

We think that the combination of deregulation here in the United States, big tax changes... the returns on invested capital in the United States are going to go up relative to those elsewhere in the world... Trumponomics... is like Reaganomics on steroids. If you look at what happened to the dollar under Reagan, it doubled. Explicit forecast of dollar strength based on anticipated policy-driven capital returns and historical analogy to Reagan era.

metals

What you're seeing here is just a spillover where... Huge positions have been built up in the precious metals particularly in silver and gold... All of that is starting to pare back people losing money in one space. After quickly rush. to close position somewhere else. It's a domino effect... It's a question of... Sell fast. I'll ask questions later. Describes a panicked, forced liquidation across correlated trades (metals, tech, currencies), indicating a sharp, disorderly sell-off.

wti

It's evening, govd oil today. Not so much. because of the Iran situation more because positioning into the weekend was very long. in oil futures contracts. People are having drum-wide those positions because... They're costing you out somewhere else. Attributes oil's decline to long position unwinding as part of the broader risk-off/P&L survival theme, not geopolitics.

dxy

Our view is that we'll see further decline in the dollar over the course of 2026. Expects a gradual easing, which would be supportive for commodities. A weaker dollar would induce more investor appetite for the sector.

metals

The price came down... there was this massive round of profit taking... I think there is some downside left to it. The markets will continue to be extremely volatile. Describes a 'tremendous speculative bubble' that popped due to profit-taking and technical unwinding, with more near-term volatility expected.

dxy

I think the responsibility that the dollar will grant regain some of its footing... So I think the dollar could have further to go. Kevin Warsh nomination improves Fed credibility, may imply fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Positioning was overstretched short dollar.

ndx

We are the least optimistic on US technology stocks, the magnificent 7, then we have been in easily a decade. We believe that there's a rotation occurring that's coming out of them into emerging markets and hard assets. Cites concentration risk as eight of the ten largest global stocks are US tech. Expects continued rotation away during the year.

yields

We do think rates are going to come down... As interest rates come down this year Based on expectation of Fed cuts and normalization; recommends intermediate duration to benefit from price appreciation as rates fall.

ndx

The question is are they going to reassert their leadership for 2026. Our view is that they likely will.

yields

higher rates, less credibility and ultimately a lower fed put... As the term as trust goes down, term premium goes up... the yield curve steepens Warsh's appointment reduces market trust in Fed, increasing term premium and steepening yield curve, with market already showing reaction since nomination.

dxy

I think you got to counter trend in the next couple of months for sure. Dollar oversold, EM local currency bonds frothy, White House nervous, high probability of counter-trend rally near-term despite long-term bear market.

wti

This could be a great year for broadening out the commodity trade... the coal names, and the crude natural gas and oil. Capital migrating from financial assets to hard assets includes oil; part of sustained commodity bull market.

yields

"he can low rates pretty significantly and not be inflationary because his main concern is that the large inflationary pressure is built up from the huge balance sheet... which means that he can actually allow rates to drop." The 'Warsh maneuver' explicitly involves lowering rates while draining liquidity to combat inflation stemming from the balance sheet.