wti

the price of oil might go to $130 or $150 in that very adverse scenario Scenarios based on length of Strait of Hormuz disruption: 21 days -> $110, 30 days -> $130, 60 days -> $150.

wti

The oil market is bifurcated... The middle east crude oil that goes to Asia is now trading at $16070... oil that goes to the United States is still trading around $95... it's never been $80 like we've seen now. Describes a structurally fractured market with extreme regional price disparities ($95-$170), indicating severe supply disruption and upward price pressure. Argues a 10-million-barrel deficit must be resolved by prices rising until demand is destroyed.

yields

we're going to get more inflation than we're going to get a reduction in growth... nominal GDP's going to go up. And that means that the appropriate response for interest rates to go higher... central banks might be to hike rates. Thesis is that oil-driven inflation will outpace growth slowdown, raising nominal GDP, which mechanically requires higher interest rates. Explicitly rules out cuts as a mistake.

metals

I do stand by that [call on gold]... Structural drivers of gold, such as purchases from central banks... provide a bit of a floor Maintains a structural bullish view based on diversification demand and central bank buying, despite acknowledging near-term headwinds.

ndx

we're seeing a lot of interest come back into tech, into AI... bringing attention back to the fundamentals and the really strong earnings picture Sees investor focus shifting back to the strong fundamental earnings story in tech/AI, away from macro concerns.

ndx

expecting a lot of volume for today that could create significant volatility Triple witching with Nasdaq 100 contracts expiring creates potential for aggressive sell-off then rally or opposite pattern.

rut

expecting a lot of volume for today that could create significant volatility Triple witching with Russell contracts expiring alongside other indexes.

dxy

We've held the view of a longer term view on the dollar of dollar weakness... We want to be conscious of potentially potential weakness in the dollar. Based on structural concerns over US fiscal sustainability.

metals

Gold is a strategic asset that we would have in portfolios irregardless of where the near-term pricing goes day to day. Positioning gold as a strategic, non-sovereign currency and portfolio diversifier, especially in a crisis environment, suggests a positive long-term view.

wti

The first order, we know that oil prices will go up. Direct statement about the immediate impact of the war and supply disruptions.

wti

higher for longer seems to be the risk right now Infrastructure damage will take time to repair even with ceasefire; Middle East supply disruption of 10 million barrels/day creates structural shortage; limited alternatives for middle distillates; temporary sanction relief insufficient.

ndx

Equities still look rich relative to where they could go in a genuine shock where the Fed is not able to cut interest rates. Valuations are too high for an environment of persistent inflation and constrained central bank response.

wti

We could get $125, $130 a barrel oil very easily if this continues to unfold in a scale that is measured in months, not weeks as it was originally intended. The market mispriced the conflict as short-term; the nature is a persistent supply shock.

metals

wti

Longer disruption will cause financial prices to embed more risk and go higher. The paper market is under-pricing the duration risk from infrastructure damage. Escalation increases the probability of a prolonged event.

metals

The dollar index goes down, the gold market in my opinion goes up. Presents two macro scenarios (higher energy prices hurting growth or lower oil prices easing dollar pressure) that both conclude with a positive outlook for gold and silver.

metals

gold... is now being a little bit put to the sideline... The technical break below 5000 was really the signal Pressure from reduced Fed rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking on a popular long position.

wti

higher for longer seems to be the risk right now... it will have to be reflected in the price to go higher Infrastructure damage will take years to repair, creating a sustained supply deficit of up to 10 million barrels per day.

wti

The market is saying... this is not going to be in the market's opinion a sustained increase in energy. Points to futures curve (first month up sharply but 12-month only up $10-15) as evidence the market sees the energy price spike as temporary, not a fundamental, lasting shock that would re-ignite broad inflation.

yields

Our belief for now is that you'll probably going to get another two cuts this year. Expects Fed cuts due to a 'slow growth job market' and a belief that AI-driven productivity will be disinflationary, mirroring the mid-90s. Argues the 2% inflation target isn't based on US financial history and the economy does fine at 3%.

metals

metals collapsing... copper did it, silver did it... This is just getting started. Explicitly states metals are collapsing and decline is just beginning, with silver down almost 3% for year after being up 63% in January.

ndx

Says stock market is 'wobbling' and market is worrying about triggering acceleration in downward trend like 9/11. Notes S&P 500 volatility hasn't reflected energy crisis yet but expects trickle-up effect. References 2008 recession pattern where stocks fell after oil peak.

yields

long bond yields starting to tick down today because it sees an end game Explicitly states long bond yields are ticking down as market anticipates end game of energy crisis leading to recession.

wti

there is a view that there is probably more durability in elevated energy prices around the world coming out of the conflict.

ndx

With that comes a technology trade... when you're going through tough times, particularly from a macro perspective, tech is relatively macro-agnostic asset class... that's where investors will be focusing on in moments of difficulty. Sees US tech as a relative safe haven and beneficiary of a flight to quality/resilience within the US market during the shock.

wti

We would certainly assume at this point in a time that oil prices... will stay fairly elevated through the rest of the year even if the conflict comes to an end in the next few days. The shift in dynamic where Iran, not the US, can call the shots means supply disruption risks are more persistent.

dxy

The dollar has really not lost its role in times of turmoil... We do think the dollar will continue to be the global reserve currency. His view is one of stability and maintained status, not a strong directional call up or down.

wti

Oil futures price of oil about a year out is around $70 a barrel not $100... oil investors seem to think this is going to end pretty quickly. Clarida cites futures market pricing, which suggests the market expects a reversion from current spike, implying a sideways-to-lower medium-term direction from current highs.

wti

all of this is obviously bullish for prices The reasoning is built on three escalating, supply-side risk factors: chokepoint risk, involuntary production shut-ins, and physical infrastructure damage with long repair times. The analysis of the Qatar LNG attack (3-year repair) is presented as a leading indicator for similar risks to oil infrastructure.

metals

gold futures continue in a cell off... you're going to see that they're going to be buying less gold in the future... gold, gold miners, silver, silver miners, all being sold off at the same time. High energy prices create a stagflationary shock, forcing the Fed to hold rates, which hurts growth-sensitive commodities. Capital is shifting from store-of-value metals to securing physical energy needs, removing a key structural buyer (central banks).

wti

the US oil is hanging in right at this 95 mark right between 95 and a hundred dollars Conflict-driven supply disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure are creating upward price pressure and volatility, particularly in Brent, which spills over into the oil complex.

yields

The interviewee states the Fed 'cannot cut rates' and is 'tightening things up' due to high energy prices and inflation. This implies a hawkish hold or potential for further tightening, which would keep yields elevated or push them higher in the short term.

dxy

It's put a short term bit for the US dollar. He directly states the conflict provides a short-term bid for the USD.

metals

I believe gold has entered a consolidation period... I view gold as in a trading range between 4-5 and 5-5. And I think that may extend for a period. He cites gold not making a new high on the conflict outbreak as a signal it has peaked for now.

yields

As long as the Treasury bond market remains well behaved... for now, the ten year has been relatively well behaved. He states the Fed won't be forced to tighten if the Treasury market stays well-behaved, indicating an expectation of stability in the near term.

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude none. Multiple supply chain disruptions across energy complex; SPR releases insufficient to offset ~18M bpd disruption; hoarding behavior adds 2-3M bpd demand pressure; damage will take months to unwind.

metals

gold market, it's down about $330... Gold Futures continuing to sell off... gold, gold miners, silver, silver miners all being sold off Central banks shifting from gold to energy security purchases; high energy costs hurting mining profitability; gold lost safe-haven status becoming growth story; structural support removed

wti

US oil is hanging in right at this 95 mark right between 95 and 100 dollars Geopolitical attacks on Middle East infrastructure causing price shocks; Strait of Hormuz disruption (20% of global energy) supporting prices; no progress on conflict resolution suggests continued pressure

yields

Fed can't cut rates with energy prices/inflation high; 'higher for longer' scenario; only if oil prices come down would '10-year Treasury yields will come off'

wti

chances are that as this continue to drag on, then the... a medium to longer-term oil price expectations will start to change as well. Explicitly states that the prevailing expectation of a quick oil price drop is wrong and that medium-term price expectations will rise due to the protracted conflict and supply damage.

wti

The size of this oil shock is unprecedented. The Strait of Hormuz has not been closed before. 20% of oil production. That is very material. Describing the shock as 'unprecedented' and 'very material' directly references the cause of the sharp price increase.

wti

market's starting to reprise maybe a higher for longer scenario Futures curve backwardation with longer-dated contracts drifting higher indicates repricing.

yields

I think the next move will be a hike Based on view that last cut is done, ECB is hiking, and Fed will follow if economy rebounds.

wti

You get long, buckle your seat belt and hang on for the ride... the upside here, I would argue, is substantial. Again, we want to be long... We haven't even really started the rebalancing process yet. Argues the current ~$100 paper price is massively disconnected from physical markets (~$130-$170). Uses the mirror of COVID's -$37 rebalancing price to imply a need for very high prices to destroy demand. Points to physical prices (Oman $173, jet fuel $220-$230) as a leading indicator. Sees no spare capacity and a supply shock equal to COVID's demand shock.

wti

In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Powell explicitly confirms a substantial, near-term rise in oil prices due to Middle East supply disruptions, characterizing it as a shock that will push up inflation.

yields

Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Powell explicitly states higher energy prices are inflationary and the Fed is watching the data closely. With inflation already elevated and risks to the upside, the implicit direction is for potential upward pressure on yields if the inflation shock persists, though the Fed is not pre-committing.

yields

I'd be buying the two-year part of the curve because the Fed will ease later this year. His entire thesis is that oil price spikes are deflationary demand shocks that will slow the economy, forcing the Fed to cut rates. He explicitly dismisses the idea of a hike as 'ridiculous'.

wti

substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East

yields

Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. Fed maintaining current policy rate suggests yields will remain stable in near term; no indication of imminent rate changes despite inflation concerns.

wti

How does that hit sticker shock for folks buying airline tickets in the US as oil goes to wherever it's gonna go Directly links the Middle East conflict to higher oil prices and consequent consumer price impacts (airfares) in the short term.

wti

Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Fed explicitly cites a 'substantial rise in oil prices' as a current factor, attributing it to Middle East supply disruptions. This is a direct observation of a price increase that has already occurred and is impacting near-term inflation expectations.

yields

The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year. Projected policy rate cuts imply lower short-term yields. The Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down suggests a dovish tilt, which would put downward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve over the medium term.

dxy

It's put a short term bid for the US dollar. Middle East conflict seen as short-term relative positive for US, attracting dollar flows.

metals

I believe gold has entered a consolidation period... I view gold as in a trading range between 4.5 and 5.5. Gold did not make new high on conflict outbreak; gold miners also consolidating due to higher energy costs.

wti

if we stay at these oil prices... $120 a barrel Describing current price level and its implications suggests expectation of sustained high prices for next several months.

wti

We could get $125, $130 barrel oil very easily if this continues to unfold in a scale that is measured in months, not weeks. Middle East uncertainty playing through to energy sector could drive substantial oil price increases over medium term.

yields

10-year yields are below 4% by the end of the year. Lower rates remains my base case. Long term bullish for treasuries. Flatter curve makes sense with 10-30yr outperforming. If Fed fights inflation/delays cuts, breakevens compress and nominal rates slip lower. Geopolitical uncertainty and potential consumer stress undermine growth.

wti

Right now, what's happening in the Middle East is one or two order of magnitude larger... the price of brent basically doubled... the largest supply event in the oil and gas market that I have seen in my career. Explicitly characterizes the situation as an unprecedented supply shock causing a sharp, sustained price increase.

yields

The front end is pricing in the lack of cuts... It's hard to see the two-year rise meaningfully unless we think inflation is going to stay high for many many years. Front-end yields are up because the oil shock prevents Fed cuts. However, a sharp, sustained rise is constrained by longer-term inflation expectations still being sub-3%.

wti

So I think you're at $100 a barrel. This thing's mispriced. [...] this rest of the complex likely to start to riot rally. Currie argues the physical market is trading at $130-170/bbl for Asian crude with products above $200/bbl, while paper WTI is around $100. The closure of the gap between cheap Russian crude and high-cost WTI/Brent has eliminated spare barrels. He equates the current supply shock to the COVID demand shock, which severely disrupted global supply chains, implying a sharp upward correction is imminent.

wti

You know what the price of oil is... If that continues, it's gonna not only damage our economy, it'll damage the world economy. Panetta's entire analysis is predicated on the Strait of Hormuz being closed, which restricts global oil supply. He states this gives Iran 'tremendous leverage' and that reopening it is critical. The direct causal link between the continued closure and economic damage implies upward pressure on oil prices in the short term until the geopolitical blockage is resolved.

dxy

Dollar is overvalued... if the Fed cuts and ECB is on hold... dollar will continue to go down... We are positioned for that.

yields

We bought recently quite a lot of two-year data bonds... market is too extreme pricing hikes in particular in Europe. His action of buying short-dated European bonds indicates he expects yields to fall as the market is overpricing rate hikes, especially with the ECB likely on hold and growth softer.

wti

We're in the midst of an oil shock... We don't know if it's going to dissipate from here on out or get bigger... It could go up, could go down. Blinder explicitly refuses to forecast a direction, emphasizing equal probability of up or down moves due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, which he states won't be over soon. This defines a sideways/volatile outlook, not a directional 'cautious up'.

wti

WTI, I believe is what... 98 and change now. So we're very similar, or we're back to similar levels that we saw just a week ago before. The bit of a pullback. Oil spike driven by Iran threat; prices jumped 50-60% recently.

wti

Our commodities team is forecasting with a baseline assumption of 21 days closure of the Strait of Hormuz... which takes the oil numbers towards 85 in April and thereafter lower into the 70s by the end of the year. The forecast implies oil prices are currently elevated (above $100) due to the conflict and supply disruption, with a path downward only after a gradual reopening of the Strait. This indicates an 'up' direction in the short term from a pre-conflict baseline, followed by a decline.

wti

Prudely oil prices are up 42% year over year Oil price surge is feeding into services inflation; conflict needs to subside for Fed cuts.

yields

A 30 basis points higher on core inflation... is probably good for enough of them to take a rate cut off the table. His core argument is that sticky, above-target inflation will force the Fed to be more hawkish in its projections, removing expected rate cuts, which should put upward pressure on yields.

wti

Energy prices moving higher are inflationary in the short-term Acknowledges oil moving higher due to conflict; short-term inflationary impact.