dxy

we have the the dollar down Stated as an observed market move on the day, part of the 'opposite direction' pattern.

wti

We've got oil prices up Mentioned as part of the day's price action, in contrast to the typical war-period inverse relationship with equities.

yields

we have bond yields down Stated as an observed market move on the day, part of the 'opposite direction' pattern.

wti

we are seeing oil move to the upside Due to supply disruptions from strikes on UAE port and gas fields, with focus on refining/production infrastructure over next couple weeks.

dxy

You're seeing it in the rally in the dollar Flight to safety/quality is driving dollar strength

ndx

You're also seeing it in the recent out performance of tech Investors returning to tech due to long-term structural fundamentals, earnings growth, and upgrades

wti

expectations for energy prices are to recover and be back around $80 in the not-too-distant future

wti

once the conflict settles. I think oil prices move back down. View that Middle East conflict is a temporary disruption; once settled, focus returns to fundamentals (strong earnings, falling inflation) which don't support sustained high oil prices.

wti

if we are still in the same place in May, looking into a third quarter, I've already mentioned we could see spikes 160 or as a barrel, if things keep going we can see Brent breaking 200 gs of barrel The Strait of Hormuz closure lacks viable rerouting alternatives, creating immediate supply disruption risks. Without resolution in weeks, the situation becomes 'very, very complicated for oil prices,' with potential for dramatic spikes as recession risks escalate.

metals

Buyer of gold dip under $5000/oz. Gold does start to recover once central banks begin to react to the impact on global growth. Sees gold pressured short-term by rate hike expectations and strong dollar, but recovery likely as growth impact becomes focus.

wti

We have not yet seen the peak of oil prices. Clearly, the next two weeks is extremely vital. Base case $90 by June if Strait reopens, but currently disrupted. Prices could stabilize around $90-$100.

wti

even if this was to end right away, you're probably gonna have spillover effects to things like food and transportation. It's gonna take some time before the oil would start flowing in a more regular way. Explicitly states that oil supply disruptions will persist for some time, leading to higher prices (spillover effects) in the near term.

wti

you probably don't get some real good durable low in equities until you get crude back into the 75 to 85 range Current price at $96.05 implies oil needs to come down significantly for equity lows

wti

Futures markets have them going down into the 60s again by the fall... It goes all the way down to the 50s past the year... We're moving towards a world where the energy of the Middle East is accessible through free markets without extortion... that's going to drive oil prices down in the long run. Hassett believes ending Iranian terrorism and creating Middle East stability will reduce risk premiums and increase investment, leading to lower long-term oil prices.

dxy

that should keep the dollar somewhat supported over the short run Cites the dollar's reserve status, ongoing demand for Treasuries, and elevated US yields as supporting factors, despite acknowledging a potential marginal waning in demand.

yields

the 10 year treasuries up 25, 30 basis points over the past few weeks... if US yields kind of stay elevated Mentions recent rise in yields and discusses factors (Fed outlook, inflation expectations) that could keep them elevated.

yields

HSBC expects no Fed cuts this year - taking extreme view. Explicit no-cuts view combined with concern about oil price inflation suggests yields may remain elevated or rise.

metals

We have been pushing commodity as an interesting space to be in... That drives commodity price high... All of these perspectives gives you a long commodity lens.

metals

we're increasing our gold position. we bought copper Action is part of defensive shift and stagflation hedge. Buying is a direct, current position increase, indicating a positive near-term view.

rut

We took down our small cap exposure to its minimum position... from 6-7% to 2% Explicit reduction in exposure due to data being 'the complete opposite of what you want to own in those areas'. Action implies a negative near-term outlook for small caps (Russell 2000 proxy).

wti

oil at these elevated levels over the coming weeks... oil to stay elevated even if it doesn't go up a dollar from here View driven by war-related supply chain disruptions keeping Strait of Hormuz traffic from normal, sustaining price pressure. Expects elevated levels to persist, implying a 'cautious up' or 'sideways at high level' view rather than a sharp rally.

wti

Close to 100 for Dubai crude and persisting for 16 days. It will have an effect already. Discusses oil price impact on GDP and inflation; assumes elevated prices due to war.

yields

If the price of oil continues to persist at elevated levels. It is most likely that the monetary board will consider tightening.

yields

Siegel expects no Fed action 'this week' or until the June meeting, placing the Fed in a 'wait and see' mode. He argues the Fed should 'look through' the current oil price spike as it's not a repeat of COVID-era inflation. This implies he sees rates/yields remaining stable in the near term, with potential for cuts later in the year.

ndx

Market's going to be in a trading range until we get any kind of visibility with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty (Strait of Hormuz) is creating market volatility and limiting upside until clarity emerges.

wti

When this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly. Trump directly states oil prices will drop rapidly after Iran conflict ends, indicating he sees current high prices as war-driven temporary spike.

metals

I think 6000 would be a no-brainer for gold. And from there, I think we're moving substantially higher... I remain dogmatically bullish. Her bullish thesis is structural: aggressive fiscal/monetary policy to address oil shock, affordability, and a looming credit/pension crisis will lead to currency debasement, making gold the primary hedge.

yields

Treasury yields are up 34 bps since the Iran action... This is a reset of fiscal policy expectations that's being reflected in the Treasury yield. Her entire thesis is that higher oil prices will force aggressive fiscal stimulus (to cushion voters) and monetary accommodation, which will reset expectations for government borrowing and inflation, pushing yields higher.

wti

every day that the streets are closed or that ships are not going through could add three to five dollars onto the barrel of oil Current market drop reflects US reassurance efforts, but underlying risk of Strait disruption creates upward pressure; explicit quantification of $3-5 daily increase indicates cautious upward bias with high volatility risk.

wti

Even if there is a ceasefire, we could go back to a situation which might be quite different from what we had before. So oil might not go back to $60 Explicitly states oil may not return to pre-war levels due to lasting Middle East tensions and supply chain disruptions, indicating elevated price environment.

yields

The catalyst could be the war and therefore higher commodity prices and central banks not being able to cut as much or even hike. having to hike. That's what the market is pressing for Europe. Explicitly links war and higher commodity prices to potential central bank rate hikes, particularly in Europe, indicating upward pressure on yields.

yields

The moves have been probably the most dramatic in the rates market... US rates have risen a lot... there is this inflation fear... a geopolitical driven oil price spike. Attributed recent rise to inflation fears from oil and deleveraging flows. Did not specify 'sharp up' or a 'medium' term direction. View is about recent price action and near-term Fed hold.

wti

If we see these disruptions persist... for several more weeks. We could not only see oil continue to tick up where it is now, a little bit of $100 a barrel, but rise even higher. We've estimated that if the disruptions persist for closer to three months, You could see oil well above $150 a barrel, maybe even closer to we estimate around $164. Based on continuation of conflict, Iran keeping Strait of Hormuz closed, and targeting of energy infrastructure. Assumes disruptions persist for weeks to months.

yields

The yield curve has flattened... The long end has been coming down. Bond traders are pricing in an economic slowdown, pulling down longer-term yields.

wti

keep the price of oil around that $100 a barrel mark for a couple of weeks maybe Supply disruption from Strait of Hormuz closure is the fundamental driver; stockpile releases are only a temporary fix.

yields

Higher-for-longer narrative isn't a bad thing for investors... Cuts, if any, are likely in the back half of this year. Expects the Fed to be on hold for an extended period ('higher-for-longer'), implying yields remain elevated/rangebound, not trending sharply up or down in the medium term.

wti

that is the factor that is driving oil prices higher and creating this dislocation in the market Strait of Hormuz closure blocking 13-15M barrels/day with insufficient strategic reserves to compensate, pushing prices to $100/barrel

yields

Rates markets have reacted appropriately they've racked quite enthusiastically to what's happened in oil prices. We've seen a big surge higher in yields Bond market appropriately pricing inflationary shock from Middle East conflict versus stock market's misplaced resilience

dxy

I think the dollar is a safe haven, and most people see it, and as you said, that's probably what we've been seeing. In response to host noting people went to the dollar during war risk, Rattner explicitly affirms the dollar's safe-haven status and that this dynamic is likely occurring. This implies upward pressure on the DXY, tempered as 'cautious' due to the complex market context he describes.

wti

you're seeing this premium on oil Strait of Hormuz closure is creating supply disruption and price pressure.

yields

The short end has risen. In context of discussing the front end taking out two Fed rate cuts in two weeks due to war/inflation concerns.

yields

The yield curve has flattened... bond traders are beginning to price in the idea of a real economic slowdown. So that's why the long end has been coming down. Long-end yields declining due to economic slowdown expectations, short-end stable as rate cuts priced out. This suggests downward pressure on longer-term yields.

wti

Market has already been assuming we're going to get like the kind of 90s plus number until into June, right? So then declining to December. That's already a couple of months. The shock is driving prices higher temporarily, with market curve pricing $90+ until June before declining. This represents an upward move from current 70s-80s levels to 90s, but the interviewee emphasizes it's temporary (weeks/couple of months) rather than sustained.

wti

The magnitude of the price shock is so far much smaller basically than we have had in the past. ... It's not really about oil prices. I mean, it is obviously. It depends on where we end up. Current price (~$100 WTI) is much lower than past shocks when adjusted for inflation ($145 in Russia-Ukraine, $185 in 2008). Risk premium from physical shortage concerns could persist, but magnitude of shock is currently contained.

yields

We are in a phase where all rates are going up. ... If you consider a hypothetical of suddenly cutting short-term policy rates, the 10-year would go even higher. Based on historical analogy to 1973-74 oil shocks where accommodating with rate cuts led to higher long-term yields. The current context is one of rising yields across the curve.

yields

I was not expecting the two-year yield to climb to 3.75. The market's not pricing in any more cuts for this year. Front end of Treasury curve feels unhinged; markets shifting from expecting cuts to no cuts reflects upward pressure on yields.

wti

if you get oil at $120, $130 a barrel for any kind of sustained period of time Guest discusses oil price impact assuming sustained high prices, implying upward pressure or already elevated levels.

ndx

I think equities are the pain points. You had declines in U.S. equities overnight... who wants to go long equities into this weekend... it's going to be very brave to actually add to long positions.

yields

There's been some pretty severe repricing in the short end as traders accept that the Fed is not about to cut rates in the foreseeable future as long as this war is going on...

ndx

Most concerned really about the earnings outlook more towards the 3rd/4th quarter because their earnings expectations are super-high... That is something I think towards the second half of the year we're worried about it. Concern over high earnings expectations for H2 2024 suggests downward pressure on equity indices if those expectations aren't met.

wti

Look at oil, the oil, the oil pressure is on the last two, three days. You either can trade that intraday. But I don't think it's particularly helpful to say, like my oil price target by the end of this year is X dollars, right? Because it depends about the path over the next couple of days and couple of weeks.

dxy

US dollar has been relatively firm... US is self-sufficient in oil and gas so from a simple terms of trade perspective, the US dollar should be relatively well supported in this more adverse scenario. In $120-$130 Brent scenario, dollar would likely strengthen.

metals

Gold, of course, has very well owned going into this, but one of the major markets for gold trading is exactly where we have the issue... US dollar has been relatively firm. Gold ownership high pre-conflict, but dollar strength and specific market disruptions (Middle East trading hub) limiting upside.

wti

We laid out three scenarios... the one that we're in right now is $90-$100 on Brent... the third would be $120-$130 at which point you start to cut off global demand more significantly. Current market pricing reflects ~20M bpd interruption from Strait closure, with IEA reserves only offsetting at most one third of shortfall. Not a huge surprise to see where oil is trading.

wti

oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel for say several months, three to six months Based on scenario of protracted Strait of Hormuz closure.

yields

if we were to see inflation staying higher driven by energy that would eventually lead to demand destruction... eventually we would see demand drop and very likely we'd see inflation coming down that for Central Bank actually cutting rates Prolonged high oil prices would crush demand, leading to lower growth, lower inflation, and eventual rate cuts.

yields

The rates market is viewing this simply as an inflation shock globally... global rates have risen. Describes current market pricing driven by oil price shock. Her own view is that this rise is a short-term shock and that Fed cuts will eventually cap yields.

metals

Metals since 2020 are just a straight line going up... I want to own metal, I want to own gold Part of regime change to asset-heavy economy, cost structure rising, demand from EM diversification away from dollar assets

wti

Get long, buckle your seatbelt, hang on for the ride... I want to own oil Regime change structural shift, supply chain disruptions lasting months, hoarding adding demand, no policy solution, SPR inadequate

wti

Every $10 rise in oil prices leads to a 40 basis point bump in inflation... The issue here is going to be twofold. One is the length of the war and also the Strait of Hormuz. And when will that reopen? Until we can get clarity on both of those energy prices are going to remain volatile.

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude none. Massive supply chain disruptions (18M barrels/day), ineffective policy responses, and emerging hoarding behavior creating additional demand pressure.

wti

Retail gasoline prices are already up 20% versus when the episode in Ukraine started. Energy price shock is already impacting prices, suggesting upward pressure on oil prices in the near term.

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude none. Massive supply disruption (~18M bpd) vs. limited strategic reserve release capacity (2M bpd flow rate) creates immediate upward price pressure.

wti

Oil traders are looking to what's happening in the straight of our moves and just trying to figure out how long flows are gonna be backed up. Supply disruption from Strait of Hormuz closure driving immediate price surge; infrastructure complications suggest sustained pressure.

wti

We could see oil prices spike... back above $120 again. Views conflict as finite; only Strait of Hormuz reopening will bring prices down; maintains $80/bbl year target despite near-term spike potential.

ndx

tech will make all time highs... where are the share? Now are we going through white knock-a-moment?... But we've gone through it a year... if you look at the spending in the capex dollars, That! I think that ultimately is yellow brick road because of the multiplier and capex that will be for software infrastructure second third derivatives across tech. His entire thesis is a rebuttal to the bear case ('AI ghost trade'). He calls the sell-off oversold, a generational buying opportunity, and sees AI capex as a powerful multi-derivative driver for the entire tech sector, which is the core of NDX.

wti

oil prices, I'm afraid, are going to continue marching in the triple digit range... we can go well into the mid-hundred dollar range and beyond Based on a 30-day base case for Strait of Hormuz disruption, rendering IEA stock releases and other measures insufficient. Direction is 'sharp up' due to phrases 'marching', 'mid-hundred dollar range and beyond', and context of a 20M bpd supply shock.

yields

I think all of this really, when you put it all together, is moving sideways. Ferguson describes the overall economic data and Fed policy stance as 'moving sideways,' which in context of Fed expectations and inflation data suggests yields are likely to remain rangebound in the short term pending clearer signals.

metals

shift away from US dollars back towards gold over the next few weeks Gold showing strong resilience above $5,000/oz despite dollar strength, strong central bank buying continues even at record prices

yields

Probably you won't see any any rate cuts. I think the markets are suggesting there will be no rate cuts this time.

wti

I think we're starting to price in what is looking like going to be a much longer term disruption. Conflict off-ramp unclear, disruption expected to last longer than initially hoped, driving oil prices higher.

yields

That's why we're seeing the 10 year yields back above 4.2%. Higher oil prices contributing to inflation with cooling labor market puts Fed in tight spot, driving yields higher.