metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

metals

I've always been a gold bug because fiat money is inherently inflationary. A lot of the demand for gold in the last three or four years had come from central reserve managers buying gold. Sees gold as a hedge against fiat inflation and geopolitical diversification. Demand from central banks is a structural support. Does not express a direct short-term price forecast, but the thesis is bullish long-term.

yields

I think that the recent rally that we have seen at the long end wonies, aren't terrible. I don't think that the tenier yield is... is going to be validated anytime around 4.06 levels that it was hovering around earlier. So I think that if you've got the Fed that is going to that is inclined to be cutting rates, despite sticking inflation, that is going to send yields at the long end higher because investors are going to want an inflation premium stuck into the 10 year and the 30 year majorities.

ndx

That really does call into questions. Some of those high-beater named rallies that we've seen over the last three or four months where really I would be rotating away again from the small caps, more towards the Mag7 where the valuations look much more reasonable now. Implies a near-term rotation away from high-beta/small-cap names (which have been rallying) and back toward Mag7, suggesting relative underperformance for the broader NDX/small-cap complex.

wti

This could be weeks long, a month-long campaign, which is why you see crude prices higher as well because... What does Iran do? What can they do to fight back? Part of that could be closing the straight of Hormuz... choking off a huge port when it comes to crude oil going through in and out of the region. Geopolitical risk from potential U.S.-Iran conflict is cited as a direct cause for higher crude prices, with escalation expected to last weeks/months.

yields

The next couple of weeks if we go from 4.10 back to 4.30... Do we really care?... It's probably something tactically that you can position for. I wouldn't be buying treasuries here... that move is largely really a bond market move. It is not high enough to hit that danger zone.

metals

I have real issues with silver... It is not gold. Silver is small, easily manipulated, industrial substitution risk (solar), became a meme stock. Precious metals (gold) are the current debasement trade story.

wti

I think that this could go much higher. Geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz), China stockpiling, traders hedging weekend attacks with call options, potential for Iran disruption. Administration wants lower prices for elections but may not be able to control it.

dxy

that should be supported for the dollar. So that gets dolly into the sort of 157158 level. Based on view that US front-end rates could head higher, supporting dollar.

yields

Brunton rates will probably remain pretty range bound with a sort of 25 to 30 basis points range until we get a better sense as what the new Fed Chair. could deliver in the second half this year.

metals

We were significantly higher here in the middle of the night. For backing off here, we're led down by copper, which is down about 1.5%... gold is down about 15 basis points and silver is down about 5%. Metals retreating from overnight highs, with copper leading declines. ETF flows show selling in silver, mixed for other metals. Elevated volatility but downward pressure evident.

ndx

NASDAQ showing most weakness among indices, with FANG stocks weaker. Mentions AI cannibalism among tech names as concern.

rut

You get the Russell 2000 down 11 at 2651.40 that's down just about 0.4%. Small caps down but less than NASDAQ. Interviewee believes small caps would be 'much less impacted' by geopolitical events than large caps.

wti

WTI crude oil... up one and a half percent here. Up a dollar at $66.05... If you're going to trade on the geopolitical front here and you believe that oil will be greatly impacted, especially to the upside on that. Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran-Israel) create short-term upside pressure, but recommends front-month contracts due to transient nature of past conflicts.

yields

10-year Treasury yields tracking a bit higher here, of course, with the energy prices. Energy price increases (oil up 1.5%) putting upward pressure on yields via inflation expectations (energy = 6% of CPI).

ndx

As long as big tech does not go down, the market can go up as it broadens... I don't see a lot of upside, but again... even modest upside, I think, will keep us at very much above average rates of change. The Mag 7 is in a holding pattern, but market breadth is improving. The condition for NDX (big tech) is stability, not strong outperformance.

yields

The Fed is basically at neutral... The Fed's long-term neutral is 2% inflation plus 1% r-star and that's 3%... at 2.4% plus 1% r-star, you're at 3.4, the Fed's at 3, and not very much above that. The Fed is basically at neutral.

dxy

The broad view for us on the dollar is actually one that's relatively balanced this year and we will go through these periods where it's stronger because of the data and maybe the more hawkish fed but could also trade weaker if we get some of these kind of almost tail risk type events.

yields

This is consistent for us with our long-held view that the Fed will keep policy rates on hold for a long time now.

metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

yields

I think that there's probably more upside with longer term yields Factors like higher Japanese yields, tariff concerns, and debt/deficit loads put a floor on yields and prevent them from going much lower, suggesting upward pressure on longer-term yields.

yields

Several participants indicated they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. First Fed commentary on rate hikes in years; focus shifted to inflation; concerns disinflation slower due to tariffs, AI spending, demand; inflation may stabilize higher, prompting Fed action.

yields

Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. First commentary from Fed about rate hike possibility in years; inflation concerns dominant with risks of slower disinflation from tariffs, AI spending, and demand stimulus.

ndx

This is a market... defined by three words: volatility, dispersion... you can see lot more dispersion and fragmentation Transition from AI hype to reality, market for lemons theory causing overshoots, need for bottom-up stock picking rather than sector-wide buying

yields

Yeah, I think we'll see it going back towards four, four and a half... So I think we are in a range for 4 to 450, with the average being closer to 450 than it is to four Administration worried about mortgage affordability may lead to yield curve control

yields

if potential growth is higher, the equilibrium real long rate and also the real short rate has to be higher... once you have a growth of 3% the equilibrium real rate has to be at least 3% Roubini's core thesis is that AI-driven productivity will raise potential GDP growth to ~4%. He explicitly links this to a higher equilibrium real interest rate, implying upward pressure on nominal yields. He argues against cuts, seeing risk of overheating.

dxy

Dollar will continue falling. Dollar will be falling substantially versus DM currencies like Japanese yen or other European currencies.

metals

If commodity prices... copper prices... iron ore prices decline which is my baseline scenario for next let's say 6 to 12 months.

yields

We have two cuts for the rest of the year, to 3.25%. Explicit forecast for two BOE rate cuts implies lower short-term UK gilt yields. The view is conditional on data not weakening further.

metals

$5000 isn't an unreasonable target... Gold has structural tailwinds. Explicitly mentions a $5000 target for gold, citing structural drivers like central bank buying and debt monetization, while acknowledging volatility.

yields

I think they cut in March, yes.

wti

Longer term, I think, you know, at tortoise we think $70 is probably a good, it's kind of the good, goli-lox scenario price Current $65 price includes $5 geopolitical risk premium; $70 balances producer returns with consumer affordability and inflation concerns; acknowledges upside risk from potential supply disruptions but sees base case as stable.

ndx

I think we might be in for a little bit of a range bound choppy market with regard to some of those areas of the marketplace. Refers specifically to areas impacted by AI disruption/software sell-off. The 'choppy, rangebound' view is driven by 'sell first, ask questions later' dynamic and lack of clarity on top-line revenues until analysts potentially catch down to price action.

metals

It's a much more choppy path but still a climb higher for gold in particular. Cites structural central bank demand as a persistent tailwind, but acknowledges near-term volatility from speculation. Does not explicitly say 'down' in the short term; the core thesis is for a continued climb.

yields

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from over 4.28% to under 4.04%, a 24 basis point drop... Favorable inflation news is raising speculation the Fed may cut rates sooner. The interviewee describes a factual, significant drop in yields linked directly to positive CPI data and market anticipation of Fed policy easing. The tone is descriptive of a recent, sharp move, implying a near-term downward trend.

dxy

dollar next trade at 96.96 Dollar mentioned in context of other currencies moving, with rate cut expectations potentially weighing on dollar.

metals

Gold is up about 17% year to date... gold silver ratio sits at 65 to 1... probably gonna see a continued upward movement as traders are going more into the gold market with the stagflation type of narrative playing out. Gold outperforming with stagflation narrative, but silver rangebound and struggling with ETF outflows - mixed picture for metals complex.

rut

Best performers were the Russell 2000 and also the gold market Outperformance linked to lower yields and stagflation narrative benefiting small caps.

wti

energy which makes up about 6% of CPI sitting at 62.88 up 13 ticks Mentioned as component of CPI with recent uptick, part of stagflation watchlist but no explicit directional call.

yields

10-year Treasury yields... down at 4.05%. It's been declining significantly. Soft inflation data supporting rate cut expectations, yield curve flattening indicating stagflationary environment.

metals

constructive copper price environment that we are in The interviewee's entire commentary is bullish: revising production guidance upward, planning significant capacity expansion, highlighting strong byproduct revenues, and describing the price environment as 'constructive'. This implies expectation of sustained or higher prices to justify increased investment and production.

yields

There's been a pretty sizable drop in long term interest rates... There's further expectations of Fed rate cuts, which is driving the entirety of the yield curve to see a rally... We do think the Fed will be cutting rates, you know, at least twice. Expects Fed cuts due to mixed labor data, inflation moving toward 2%, and geopolitical risks. Hard to see big further decline unless something goes wrong.

metals

longer term I think they can go higher Central bank buying support for gold, silver as high-beta gold, buy-on-dips strategy.

ndx

in the longer term I think lot of software is going to be trouble. A lot of these software stocks can go even lower than where they are now even the good ones. Software sector facing structural threats; distinguishes between tactical bounce and longer-term decline.

ndx

I think it has tremendous staying power. It will be the determining point of market and profitability and productivity for the next decade... I think we're not only not in a bubble, but we're actually going to see an acceleration... This is a market that is actually going to accelerate growth. His entire thesis is built on AI driving long-term market growth, productivity gains, and profitability. He dismisses bubble concerns, predicts acceleration, and frames volatility as temporary within a strong upward trend.

yields

We quite like JGBs a little bit tactically... cautiously constructive. Tactical bullishness on JGBs implies lower yields. For UK gilts, direction is conditional on political stability; a rally (lower yields) is 'plausible' if politics is calm.

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

yields

We don't really think this trend is going to continue to see the 10-year yield move meaningfully lower, say below 4%, maybe to get down to that 3-3-4% area... all of those factors should keep yields elevated. Near-term reaction is down (4.06%), but medium-term view is rangebound/sideways due to: 1) No expected recession/slowdown, 2) Inflation still elevated, 3) Debt supply concerns, 4) Global yield competition.

metals

"I think the risk is that it's going to roll over." (on industrial metals); "I think gold's run most of its course and it's just very, it's too risky to be long at here"; "I think this is going to be a down year for silver"; "I still view it as a prudent short." (on silver) Thesis is based on: 1) High correlation with a potentially peaking S&P 500. 2) Prices are historically stretched (aluminum >3000, gold vs. 60-mo MA, silver at record ratios). 3) Demand concerns from China (deflation, speculation crackdowns). 4) The universal commodity rule: 'up too much' leads to a shift down.

dxy

Dollar has been falling... diversification away from the US... president is all in favor of a weaker dollar... opens the door to a softer dollar.

yields

If core inflation is running around 2.5%, that's basically at the Fed's target. They can reduce policy rates from a slightly restrictive stance. Hollenhorst expects disinflation to continue, giving the Fed room to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

yields

Fed not going to be looking to cut rates when inflation is going up at their target number to 3%. If the Fed is not cutting because inflation (PCE) is rising, it implies a less dovish policy stance than the market expects, which would put upward pressure on yields, especially at the front end. The tone is cautious ('not going to cut') rather than aggressively hawkish.

yields

the 10-year yield has come down for sure Statement made in context of softer CPI data causing a positive market turnaround.

dxy

Dollar has been falling over the last year or so after decade long rally. What you're seeing is investors writ large start to move into other markets that are doing better. It seems as if the president is all in favor of a weaker dollar, and that sends a certain signal to the market. Along with all the geopolitical risks, it just opens a door to a softer dollar.

yields

I still think that we can see 3.5% in the 10-year later on in the year. Expects four Fed cuts starting in June, back-end loaded, due to more anticipatory Fed stance under Waller.

dxy

Another pretty bad day for the US dollar if it turns out that way. Mark explicitly states dollar would have a bad day if CPI is soft, implying dollar weakness.

ndx

We probably reached a tipping point where bad news is just bad news for equities. People have known for some time that there's a possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering rates again. It hasn't made much difference to equities this week. So if we get a CPI number which suggests that interest rates are still too high, that will probably won't be taken very well by equities. The entire interview context is about AI-driven sector selloffs and risk-off sentiment. Mark explicitly states equities won't take high CPI well and that bad news is now bad news for equities.

dxy

That could also contribute to further dollar strength. Reasoning provided: Strong US economy, sticky inflation from tariffs, Fed likely to stay put, all contributing to dollar strength.

dxy

the dollar may still be on a weakening path Part of three themes for 2026; dollar weakness provides tailwind for Asia assets

yields

The Taylor rule rate is suggesting that the Fed funds rate should be 375 exactly where we are now. So where is the room to cut rates? Strong jobs report and AI-driven productivity gains suggest the economy has momentum, inflation remains above target, and the Fed has no room to cut rates, implying yields will stay at current levels.

yields

We've been in this very narrow range, 375 to 4 and a quarter for a while. I think that range is fine. Fundamentals don't argue for much higher rates; if labor market stays stable, yields remain in current range; only economic weakness would drive yields lower.

metals

the FOMO over the last two months has been anywhere but stocks. It's been in gold and silver and you see what's happened in the gold and silver in the last several weeks. Describes recent FOMO-driven surge in metals, indicating upward price action has already occurred and is characterizing recent market behavior.

yields

how incredibly sedate U.S. 10-year yields have been when the rest of the world's yields have been exploding higher for months and months now Expresses surprise at lack of movement in US yields compared to global trend, implying expectation of continued calm/sideways action in near term.

dxy

You could see a big pullback in the dollar index. Conditional on CPI coming at or below expectations tomorrow.

metals

Describes gold facing resistance and silver with elevated volatility, ETF flows declining, and market becoming more of FOMO day trading affair with algorithms cutting positions.

wti

If there's no geopolitical event that occurs or if there's an agreement with Iran, you'll probably see that futures on crude oil come back down and test that 60 level. Due to supply glut despite current geopolitical tensions.

yields

You could also see those 10-year Treasury yields slip from about 4.2% back down to the key lows of the range here right around 4.11%. Conditional on CPI coming at or below expectations tomorrow.

metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

yields

yields

The 10-year yield is now higher on that Strong jobs data with lower unemployment, higher wages, and increased labor participation suggests higher interest rates and pushes back Fed rate cut expectations

dxy

Now a weak dollar is part of the story. It's added just over 200 of the 700 basis points of outperformance.

metals

'$10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold'; 'gold is going to run the deficits...'; 'gold over long-term treasuries until the dollar is appropriately priced relative to gold' Gold is framed as the solution to the global sovereign debt bubble and the mechanism to settle US trade deficits. The price targets are orders of magnitude above current levels, indicating a 'sharp up' long-term view.

ndx

Warns of a 'whoosh down' for assets globally, potentially led by Bitcoin, in the first half of the year, linked to Japanese bond market contagion. This implies broad risk-off including tech/NDX. Also notes stocks will go up in dollars but down in gold terms over the cycle.

wti

we are likely to see a short... but temporary. brief spike in oil prices Described as the 'more likely scenario' of 'managed escalation', with the spike being temporary before market adaptation.