yields

I think the Fed needs to cut the rate. His call for Fed rate cuts is directly tied to his macro thesis of needing to 'run a hotter economy' to manage debt and stabilize the dollar, implying he expects lower policy rates and, by extension, lower yields.

dxy

I'd be very surprised if the USD is not weaker in five years' time. He cites expensive valuation, historical cycles, and the Trump administration's policies encouraging diversification away from the dollar as reasons for a long-term bearish view.

yields

For the Fed, my view is they're not going to do anything for the next 6-12 months. Expects the Fed to be on hold, implying a rangebound period for policy rates and, by extension, front-end yields. Notes ambiguity on whether AI-driven productivity would ultimately lead to higher or lower neutral rates.

ndx

Top line S&P index is very flat, NASDAQ down a little bit. You've seen a massive cyclical rotation away from the digital to the physical. She explicitly notes the Nasdaq is down and highlights a rotation out of digital (tech) into physical assets, indicating near-term caution on the NDX.

yields

The pain trade for this year was going to be a bullish flattening of the yield curve. We're starting to see that now. Michele is explicitly calling for lower yields (bullish flattening). He cites attractive valuations and client inflows into bonds.

yields

I'm pretty optimistic that we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026, as long as we see the progress on inflation. His focus is on needing to see inflation progress before cutting, implying a cautious downward path for yields, not an immediate sharp move.

dxy

We are only slight dollar bears for this year. Explicitly states a bearish, albeit mild, view on the US dollar.

ndx

Big tech very well may be interesting for those that might want to step back in to some of the softness we've seen recently. Positive on big tech fundamentals (20%+ earnings growth) and sees recent softness as a potential entry point, indicating a constructive view.

yields

We only look for one, maybe two Fed cuts. We don't see a huge southbound interest rate impetus to drive the US dollar lower. Expects very muted Fed action (1-2 cuts), implying a view that yields will not see a major downward move and are more likely to remain rangebound.

yields

I'm pretty optimistic that we can get rates down further, multiple cuts in 2026 as long as we see the progress on inflation... I think rates can still keep going down. The interviewee's optimism about rate cuts is conditional on seeing progress on inflation. He notes the committee believes the terminal rate is 'well below where we are today,' but emphasizes the need to get inflation down from 3% first. This suggests a cautious, data-dependent path lower for yields, not an immediate or sharp move.

metals

If you're really bearish on world debt and divided by 8 billion, 43,000 bucks an ounce. Silver will be at those numbers. I think silver pushes $500 an ounce. Core thesis: Global debt ($350T) and money printing (MMT) are not going away, creating secular demand for scarce real assets. Gold is undervalued relative to debt/money supply metrics. Silver has new strategic military demand.

yields

What is happening is more of a steepening of global yield curves through the longer end of the curve rising... Real rates are rising because of excess supply of government debt globally and because of increased productivity. This is a healthy steepening of the global yield curve. The interviewee explicitly describes the yield curve steepening due to the long end rising, driven by real rates. The tone is positive ('healthy'), indicating an expectation for yields to move higher, but the context of a 'Goldilocks' scenario and a 'holding pattern' for central banks suggests a measured, 'cautious' upward move.

dxy

Now you have the Supreme Court overruling and the dollar saying, well this is more uncertainty therefore dollar down. We see that new path for the dollar as lower and think that last year was just the start of a multi-year trend.

wti

there will be an immediate reaction to the market and it will be significant. So the risk premium will go up quite substantially. Strait of Hormuz handles 20M barrels/day with limited alternatives; any closure would create immediate supply disruption fears.

dxy

our bigger concern is actually the direction of the US dollar, which we think will continue to trend lower.

metals

we are also advocating A for safe havens which at the moment you can really only see in gold. The recommendation for gold as a primary safe haven, amidst expected volatility from tariffs and other risks, implies a positive near-term view on precious metals as a defensive asset class.

yields

I do think that that's going to keep it yields elevated... we do think that there's probably a floor on how much lower Treasury yields can go. Inflation remains above Fed target for five years, economy continues to grow, creating upward pressure on yields with a floor established.

dxy

It's not good for the dollar on the surface but that's mainly a cyclical factor talking about the growth decline. Acknowledged dollar is down and benefiting other currencies, attributing it to cyclical growth factors rather than secular trend.

metals

I see a move, the structural and long-term move, hard to repress... has to do with central bank's accumulating... more and more gold because they have no choice. U.S. losing reserve currency status, deficit, geopolitical confiscation risks reducing dollar appeal.

wti

It has been very hard in history... to predict the effect on devices... it is very unpredictable. Geopolitical shocks (e.g., Iran) could spike prices, but historical prediction record poor; Western world vulnerable to stagflationary oil shock.

metals

Gold keeps going until you have a catalyst in the other direction... I just don't see that happening... the risk is to the upside rather than the downside from here at least in the near term. The interviewee describes a parabolic, momentum-driven rally with no fundamental catalyst to stop it in the near term, drawing a parallel to the late 1970s. He advises buying other commodities as the gold rally spreads, indicating a continued bullish near-term view on the complex.

metals

Gold is facing renewed buoyancy... it's got short-term momentum working in its favor... probably going to revisiting its peak Driven by Middle East threat and haven demand, coinciding with dollar weakness.

dxy

We like emerging markets, for example, alongside the US... could benefit from dollar weakness. Explicit call for dollar weakness as part of investment thesis for emerging markets.

yields

What these technologies have in common is that they are energy-war technologies... I think that actually that could be inflationary. Explicitly states AI is inflationary in the short term due to energy/resource competition, implying upward pressure on yields as central banks may be less able to cut rates aggressively.

metals

Precious metals just ripping higher. Attributes the sharp move to money rotation out of large-cap tech into the much smaller precious/industrial metals market, creating outsized moves.

yields

Thinks there's more room to lower yields, but limited on how much of a safe haven it can be at current yields. He has been bullish on Treasuries (10-year) since 4.25% and sees them at 4.05-4.06%, indicating a view for lower yields. However, he tempers this by saying the safe-haven appeal is limited due to inflation and uncertainty.

dxy

I think the dollar's been falling... and I'm in the camp that the dollar could continue to fall... the dollar could go down for a little while more. A weaker dollar benefits US exports and manufacturing, aligning with political goals. Dismisses catastrophic 'debasement' narratives.

ndx

I think there is a big rotation and that rotation is away from software and some tech... The software companies are being hurt. It's their growth models are changing. AI is collapsing the cost of software, directly challenging the pricing power and growth models of major tech/software companies that dominate the NDX.

wti

That's why I think that there is go... that we've seen the price of oil going up... if there is going to be a regime change that there's going to be big disruption in the oil markets right away. Geopolitical risk from potential US kinetic response/regime change in Iran threatens disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint.

yields

I don't think the Fed should cut rates anymore. Whether they should hike rates, I'm not ready to go there, but let's just start with they should not cut rates anymore. Argues for a 'higher for longer' rate environment in a post-COVID economy with stickier inflation. His 5% bond return expectation implies rates stabilize at elevated levels, not trending down.

metals

look at asset classes like gold, silver... which give you that protection Explicitly recommends gold and silver as diversifiers for protection in the current environment, implying a positive outlook.

wti

Crude oil which is down only slightly today, but back up around $66 and you know that there is premium risk premium uncertainty put in the crude oil market Geopolitical tensions with Iran, Trump decision pending in next 10 days, risk premium in futures despite supply/demand favorable for lower prices

wti

If we do get some actual attack and we get some actual impact on production or exports. Oil is gonna... shoot above that, we will see a spike Current price reflects high-side of $3-$10 risk premium; actual disruption would cause further spike. Spare capacity tight, amplifying upside risk.

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

ndx

We have this idea that we're going to rotate out of really highly valued sectors like technology into the industries that need it... If you start to kind of have wrinkles and some sort of constraint on credit in those areas... how can you rotate, at least in the U.S.? Argues the rotation from tech to cyclicals is fundamentally flawed because the cyclical industries depend on easy credit (private credit) which is now showing stress. This implies near-term pressure on tech/NDX as the rotation narrative fails.

yields

I don't agree [that yields have to bounce] for a number of reasons. Look at what's happening in Japan. Japan's inflation is lower, Japan's rates have started to turn to lower. We are still in a fungible global bond market and people are looking for the highest yields. We still think the Fed is going to cut three times this year. Global disinflationary pressure from Japan, Fed cuts, and fading fiscal concerns support lower yields. The bond rally is described as 'defensive' amid equity rotation.

wti

Current $72 price is at top end of $3-10 risk premium analysts have been talking about - pricing in risk of some action. If there's actual interruption to oil supply, prices could spike even higher. Geopolitical tensions with Iran creating risk premium, with potential for further upside if supply disruption occurs.

dxy

Middle East tensions add to dollar allure in short term. Hawkish Fed minutes, fading labor market risks, and geopolitical uncertainty supporting dollar strength.

wti

It's quite conceivable that the geopolitical risk premium and crude oil could go meaningfully higher than where it is now... The initial response would be probably a spike in shorter dated futures and spot prices. Military buildup and threats to Strait of Hormuz disruption (20-30% of global seaborne throughput) could drive short-term spike.

wti

We've had a bear market bounce... The consistent trend in crude oil is any time you get these bounces on potential supply disruption events in the Middle East. It puts in peaks. The Western dominated producers sell forward and prices go back downward... This is just adding to that bear market sensitivity... Typically takes a little spike, cleanse the shorts, and then you go back down. Historical pattern shows Middle East tensions create temporary peaks; Western producers increase supply during spikes; Political pressure from US administration to lower prices; Supply shifting to Western Hemisphere reducing import dependence

metals

I've always been a gold bug because fiat money is inherently inflationary. A lot of the demand for gold in the last three or four years had come from central reserve managers buying gold. Sees gold as a hedge against fiat inflation and geopolitical diversification. Demand from central banks is a structural support. Does not express a direct short-term price forecast, but the thesis is bullish long-term.

yields

I think that the recent rally that we have seen at the long end wonies, aren't terrible. I don't think that the tenier yield is... is going to be validated anytime around 4.06 levels that it was hovering around earlier. So I think that if you've got the Fed that is going to that is inclined to be cutting rates, despite sticking inflation, that is going to send yields at the long end higher because investors are going to want an inflation premium stuck into the 10 year and the 30 year majorities.

ndx

That really does call into questions. Some of those high-beater named rallies that we've seen over the last three or four months where really I would be rotating away again from the small caps, more towards the Mag7 where the valuations look much more reasonable now. Implies a near-term rotation away from high-beta/small-cap names (which have been rallying) and back toward Mag7, suggesting relative underperformance for the broader NDX/small-cap complex.

wti

This could be weeks long, a month-long campaign, which is why you see crude prices higher as well because... What does Iran do? What can they do to fight back? Part of that could be closing the straight of Hormuz... choking off a huge port when it comes to crude oil going through in and out of the region. Geopolitical risk from potential U.S.-Iran conflict is cited as a direct cause for higher crude prices, with escalation expected to last weeks/months.

yields

The next couple of weeks if we go from 4.10 back to 4.30... Do we really care?... It's probably something tactically that you can position for. I wouldn't be buying treasuries here... that move is largely really a bond market move. It is not high enough to hit that danger zone.

yields

In 2 years time, 10-year yields at 6% and then it will be a problem. Based on expectation of global cyclical upswing and growth improvement, not inflation.

metals

I have real issues with silver... It is not gold. Silver is small, easily manipulated, industrial substitution risk (solar), became a meme stock. Precious metals (gold) are the current debasement trade story.

wti

I think that this could go much higher. Geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz), China stockpiling, traders hedging weekend attacks with call options, potential for Iran disruption. Administration wants lower prices for elections but may not be able to control it.

metals

We still see those both gold and silver, precious metals, increasing over the next 12 to 24 months. Long-term bullish thesis based on US debt and lack of spending control. Acknowledges near-term risk from a stronger dollar if Waller is confirmed.

dxy

that should be supported for the dollar. So that gets dolly into the sort of 157158 level. Based on view that US front-end rates could head higher, supporting dollar.

yields

Brunton rates will probably remain pretty range bound with a sort of 25 to 30 basis points range until we get a better sense as what the new Fed Chair. could deliver in the second half this year.

metals

We were significantly higher here in the middle of the night. For backing off here, we're led down by copper, which is down about 1.5%... gold is down about 15 basis points and silver is down about 5%. Metals retreating from overnight highs, with copper leading declines. ETF flows show selling in silver, mixed for other metals. Elevated volatility but downward pressure evident.

ndx

NASDAQ showing most weakness among indices, with FANG stocks weaker. Mentions AI cannibalism among tech names as concern.

rut

You get the Russell 2000 down 11 at 2651.40 that's down just about 0.4%. Small caps down but less than NASDAQ. Interviewee believes small caps would be 'much less impacted' by geopolitical events than large caps.

wti

WTI crude oil... up one and a half percent here. Up a dollar at $66.05... If you're going to trade on the geopolitical front here and you believe that oil will be greatly impacted, especially to the upside on that. Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran-Israel) create short-term upside pressure, but recommends front-month contracts due to transient nature of past conflicts.

yields

10-year Treasury yields tracking a bit higher here, of course, with the energy prices. Energy price increases (oil up 1.5%) putting upward pressure on yields via inflation expectations (energy = 6% of CPI).

dxy

Creating demand for safe haven assets, such as the US dollar. I think that will... continue heading into the weekend and maybe next week as well. Geopolitical tension viewed as negotiating tactic boosting USD near-term, but medium-term view is for USD softness due to rate cuts.

metals

Expect more increase in a price of gold. Safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions (US-Iran).

ndx

As long as big tech does not go down, the market can go up as it broadens... I don't see a lot of upside, but again... even modest upside, I think, will keep us at very much above average rates of change. The Mag 7 is in a holding pattern, but market breadth is improving. The condition for NDX (big tech) is stability, not strong outperformance.

yields

The Fed is basically at neutral... The Fed's long-term neutral is 2% inflation plus 1% r-star and that's 3%... at 2.4% plus 1% r-star, you're at 3.4, the Fed's at 3, and not very much above that. The Fed is basically at neutral.

dxy

The broad view for us on the dollar is actually one that's relatively balanced this year and we will go through these periods where it's stronger because of the data and maybe the more hawkish fed but could also trade weaker if we get some of these kind of almost tail risk type events.

yields

This is consistent for us with our long-held view that the Fed will keep policy rates on hold for a long time now.

metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

yields

I think that there's probably more upside with longer term yields Factors like higher Japanese yields, tariff concerns, and debt/deficit loads put a floor on yields and prevent them from going much lower, suggesting upward pressure on longer-term yields.

yields

Several participants indicated they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate. First Fed commentary on rate hikes in years; focus shifted to inflation; concerns disinflation slower due to tariffs, AI spending, demand; inflation may stabilize higher, prompting Fed action.

wti

I think in the first year, we'll see pretty significant, 30, 40% growth in Venezuela and all products in this year. You can continue production growth rate at a pretty good class. The forecast is for Venezuelan oil production, not directly WTI crude price. However, a significant, rapid increase in production from a major reserve holder (Venezuela) would typically add to global supply, which could be bearish for WTI. The interviewee's tone is bullish on production volume, not price. Therefore, the previous 'up' direction for WTI is invalid. No explicit WTI price forecast was made.