dxy

"Does this dollar stay supported then in the near term? Most likely." Explicitly states near-term dollar support, likely due to safe-haven flows and Fed policy relative to others.

wti

If current futures levels, actually realized. that can be quite concerning from a specific perspective. Risk of elevated oil prices feeding into inflation, dependent on conflict duration.

yields

If current futures curve are actually realized. You'll likely to see inflation in the year area this year between 3 and 3.5%. That's quite meaningful... they're going to be concerned about this with the boundaries of those expectations. ECB concerned about inflation expectations de-anchoring; if oil/gas prices persist, could force ECB to hike rates, pushing yields up.

yields

I think yields could go up a lot... yields could bounce back and go up a lot as we move forward. His thesis is conditional: if fears of Middle East war and systemic spillover from private credit (BDC) problems are removed, yields have significant upward potential. His historical argument suggests these fears will indeed fade, leading to the rise.

wti

"$120 the limit I don't think so I think we're meant for more." Argues physical supply remains severely constrained, conflict is protracted, and lack of Gulf crude will have global economic knock-on effects, all bullish for oil.

wti

the spike in oil prices overnight really suggest that markets believe this conflict could last longer than initially expected Supply disruptions from conflict, production cuts, and storage filling up creating upward pressure on prices in near term.

wti

higher oil price is a price that's worth paying El-Erian notes oil supply constraints aren't quickly reversible (weeks/months, not days), suggesting upward pressure, but with caution due to political and economic constraints.

yields

those central banks in Europe that have a single mandate are going to be hiking rates While specifically mentioning European central banks, the context of higher inflation (1% higher than otherwise) and Fed staying unchanged suggests upward pressure on yields, particularly in Europe.

wti

prices need to go a lot higher. If infrastructure is damaged, moving from a flow disruption to a capacity destruction scenario. Pipeline and reserve releases only slow the increase, don't stop it.

ndx

US stocks are going to have a pretty tough time. US equities dragged into center of crisis due to oil shock, stagflation fears, and global sell-off.

wti

oil prices now are $100... and they're quite likely going to stay there for some time as well. Middle East war disruption with no quick resolution in sight.

yields

treasury markets climbing aggressively. Driven by jump in energy prices, inflation fears, and removal of Fed rate cut expectations.

wti

If markets think that these disruptions won't be temporary, likely the higher oil prices are to go. We saw them touch very high levels... They're likely to continue to grow if we think for example, the straight of her moves won't be opening anytime soon. That could put prices well above 110, we estimate even higher than that. Conflict prolongs supply disruption; Iran's strategy to impose costs on region and global oil markets is seen as working.

wti

We're also waiving certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices. Announcement of sanctions relief and naval escorts is intended to increase supply security and lower prices in the near term.

wti

By the time we get to the elections, crude oil will be down on the year. Cites bear market trend, Western Hemisphere supply surplus, and the example of natural gas which reversed from +100% to -15%.

wti

Now we have added a new shot this gasoline price at the pump. We understand that diesel prices will be affected The entire discussion centers on a current energy price shock that is already happening and creating economic impacts, indicating upward price movement.

dxy

we've seen a resurgence in the dollar over the last couple of weeks Dollar strength cited as reason for capping gold/silver gains.

metals

Gains capped by dollar strength, recent rally exhausted, not seeing typical safe-haven inflows.

ndx

the tech actually did pretty well. IGV actually rallied last week. Amazon did well. Microsoft did well Explicit mention of tech strength and specific NDX components performing well.

rut

the small caps got hit late late last week, down over 4% Small caps specifically mentioned as declining significantly.

wti

there's going to be volatility here Production cuts, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions driving ongoing price swings.

wti

You saw prices surge 25% oil, Brent nearing $120. Surge driven by war in Iran and Strait of Hormuz closure, with no end in sight.

wti

Oil can move off of its highs if we see some de-escalation, but it's very unlikely that we return to the pre-conflict lows simply because there has been a lot of infrastructure kind of of damage and you're going to have more of a geopolitical risk premium that get kept in oil markets. The explicit statement rules out a return to prior lows, establishing a structurally higher floor. The direction is 'cautious up' relative to pre-conflict levels, not a near-term rally call from current spot.

dxy

the only thing you really left with is the dollar... the dollar amplifies these energy shocks Dollar benefits as safe haven and due to US energy exporter status, creating a feedback loop with commodity prices.

ndx

equity sell off because of the growth implications Stagflation (higher inflation, lower growth) is toxic for equity markets, implying broad-based selling including growth indices.

wti

with brand-new particular something like hundred dollars a barrel or even higher. Discusses oil at $100+ as a given condition creating stagflationary impact.

yields

bonds under pressure because it's more inflationary. That means higher yields Stagflationary oil shock drives inflation expectations and hawkish central bank pricing.

wti

oil prices have scope to meaningfully move higher I would say from here... we are going to retest that 2022 high for Brent around 140. Disruption in Strait of Hormuz is multiples of 2022 shock; oil market in steep backwardation indicates extreme tightness.

yields

That's driving yields sharply higher with bonds under pressure. Oil price shock creating stagflationary concerns (higher inflation, lower growth) is pushing yields up.

wti

Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel Supply/shipping disruptions from Middle East conflict (Strait of Hormuz closed, producers scaling back) creating tighter oil market

wti

oil prices surging some 25% today heading towards 120 dollars a barrel Acceleration of attacks on infrastructure and production cuts driving immediate price spike.

dxy

Clearly in this round, the safe haven bet will push up the dollar. Sheng explicitly states dollar is getting haven bid due to Middle East conflict, overriding structural bearish dollar positioning based on monetary policy divergence.

dxy

given what you've just talked about with the increase in the value of the dollar globally just adds insult to injury. Energy priced in dollars, and the crisis-driven demand for dollars will strengthen it, worsening inflation for non-US countries.

wti

prices could rise another 50% or even higher before leveling off. Based on scenario of Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping (adding 20M bpd shut-in) and prolonged bombing of energy infrastructure, with Iran's new hardline leadership fighting for regime survival.

wti

you should see elevated oil prices Supply tightness from Middle East conflict, Kuwait and UAE reducing output, storage at max capacity, Strait of Hormuz closed causing transportation difficulties.

dxy

The one thing investors are purely focused on right now... is buying the dollar pure and simple. Inflationary oil shock pushes back Fed cuts, supporting dollar; other traditional havens have fundamental flaws in this scenario.

metals

I'm still using 6,000 by the end of the year, and I'm still using 10,000 by the end of the decade. I still think it's a long term bull market. Geopolitics (frozen Russian assets) triggered bull market; serves as portfolio diversifier with inverse correlation to stocks short-term.

metals

Still using 6,000 by the end of the year and I'm still using 10,000 by the end of the decade. Sees gold as good diversifier, inversely correlated with stocks short-term. Bull market began when it jumped above $2,000 on geopolitics. It's both store of wealth and speculative asset.

wti

WTI was trading at 65, 64, 63 and it's now at 102, 103. That's a double increase... we're going to see $4 at the pump more sooner than we other way. Supply disruptions from Strait of Hormuz closure (16M bpd), potential further shutdown from Houthis (up to 20M bpd), continued bombing of infrastructure, and hardline Iranian stance point to sustained upward pressure. Market futures curve is dismissed as not reflecting these fundamental risks.

wti

maybe $100 oil would happen... now as these strikes hit the wider region, there are real fears... the risk of that continues to grow every day Kaczynski describes market shift from expecting short conflict to pricing in prolonged disruption due to infrastructure risks and production shutdowns that are hard to reverse.

wti

WTI was trading at 65, 64, 63, and it's now at 102, 103. That's a double increase... The interviewee describes a near-term doubling of the WTI price from ~$65 to ~$103, framing it as a sharp, realized increase and using it as a baseline to forecast further gasoline price rises.

wti

Huge downside move when it comes to oil... concern around the price of oil... drop in oil. Geopolitical tensions easing (war potentially ending), potential release of petroleum reserves, and market reaction to headlines about Strait closure being resolved.

yields

We were up last night over 4.20%... now we're back down. We were below 4.10% a moment ago. So really that move down in yields is telling us... there's less inflationary pressure people are expecting because of the drop in oil. Lower oil prices reduce inflation expectations, which pushes bond yields lower in the short term.

wti

6 to 12 months, 150 to 200, no problem for our market like this Geopolitical conflict with Iran creates asymmetric price pressure that administration cannot manage, Iran has incentive to keep prices high for political leverage.

wti

I'd be very wary of trying to buy into this... I think that'll happen in a matter of weeks, probably instead of months... it is difficult to see how this structurally persists for much longer than several weeks. Geopolitical spike is temporary; all major players want an off-ramp; pre-existing oil supply was robust; practical constraints limit a prolonged blockade.

ndx

AI thesis and the demand of the fundamentals are numbers have only gone up... the AI trade on software or on technology will be touched and in part it's because... We're making this build. It's a decade-long build. Long-term AI infrastructure demand is war-independent and insatiable, supporting tech/NDX.

wti

Over the last month and a half we've seen oil go up, you know. 50, 60 percent. Oil spike is a current context; if conflict resolves, cyclical trade returns.

yields

The 10 year would have come down as a as a safety. It hasn't done that. It's actually gone up 20 bits since the beginning of this war.

wti

There's a lot of gyrations here... it fell to about 78, $75 a barrel last night, and then now it's climbed back up to 80. So those gyrations continue... The interviewee describes rapid price movements tied to geopolitical news flow, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction but high volatility in the near term.

wti

I think it should have a high floor... I think what's happened here is you put in now a 60 floor. Structural blockage of Strait of Hormuz creates permanent risk premium, higher insurance/tanker costs, reduces capital investment in Middle East supply, establishes new price floor.

wti

I think we're not far from having 100... I do not believe that the 100 dollar [is] sustainable... But I think we will see it again... during a crisis we might see it for a short period again. Based on unprecedented Strait of Hormuz disruption blocking 20% of world's energy, increased shipping rates, and additional factors like legitimate Russian oil transport increasing ton miles.

wti

the price of oil went above a hundred dollars and stayed there for a week. the president would pivot automatically to off-ramp... I think oil, we got one of them, which was oil the last two days. High oil prices are a direct trigger for US administration to seek conflict resolution; successful off-ramp would bring oil prices down.

yields

if the 10-year yield went to 4.5, huge problem for the consumer, not to mention the bond market, generally... would force the president to seek an off-ramp. High yields are a trigger for Trump to end conflict; relief on conflict resolution would likely bring yields down from panic highs.

wti

the price of oil will clearly be affected Iran war creates supply chain concerns but believes Strait of Hormuz won't close long-term

wti

what's going on with the price of oil... the largest week over week gain... since 1982... prices get to almost $130 a barrel before retracing... you saw the spike again here this morning... all this volatility in the price of oil

ndx

US stocks are going to have a pretty tough time. It would be very surprising if the US market can withstand this onslaught. Oil price spike eliminates Fed support, drags US equities into global sell-off, deep sell-offs across world markets.

wti

Oil prices are now above $100 rather than below, and they're quite likely going to stay there for some time as well. Host mentions $125/barrel, authorities very concerned, G7 considering oil release indicates supply pressure.

yields

Treasury markets yields climbing there aggressively. Zero chance of Fed rate cuts, inflation jump likely, conditions changed completely - all point to upward pressure on yields.

wti

Oil prices moved higher Thursday, US crude prices hit $80 a barrel The statement describes a recent price movement to $80/barrel, indicating upward direction in the short term

wti

the price of oil will clearly be affected Blankfein states oil is part of supply chain and will be affected by Iran conflict, but sees disruption as temporary (not forever, maybe not even that long a while).

yields

We are moving to a different place in terms of real rates and nominal rates will come down. Productivity gains will bring down wage pressure and inflation after the energy shock, leading to lower rates. High real rates are unsustainable due to the large US debt burden.

wti

everything points to higher prices Cited loss of 20% of world oil and LNG supply, bidding for supplies, and cargo diversions as pressures. The ultimate price level and severity of the move are contingent on the conflict's duration ('does this go on a week? a month?').

wti

Oil was sub 60... now it's 90 plus. What's the next stop... does it go to 120. Discusses the surge as a current, impactful fact driving markets. Questions the ceiling ($120), implying upward momentum is present and uncertain, not that it has peaked.

yields

The move in the bond market... breakeven component... gone way up... driving rates, especially shorter maturities. Attributed directly to inflation fear from surging oil prices. Describes bonds as 'taking it on the chin' and the move as 'very evident'.

yields

I think we're right around neutral... we should stay at least around neutral... I think it could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack sees policy as neutral, not restrictive, with economy performing reasonably well. She expects rates to remain unchanged for an extended period while balancing inflation and labor market risks.

wti

Oil could surge above $100 per barrel A 6-week Hormuz shutdown (handling 20% of global oil) would cause structural repricing, not just volatility, with extreme scenarios pushing crude to $120+

metals

significant volatility in commodities, most notably energy and precious metals Commodity volatility rarely stays contained without affecting stock markets

wti

If it stays close, crude oil is strong, if it opens... gonna collapse Current price spike driven by short squeeze and geopolitical risk; natural gas example shows volatility pattern; producers will increase supply at higher prices

wti

If we start to get them going to $100 or more, and they prolonged, then you start to get into global inflation going up maybe 0.7. Oppenheimer provides explicit scenarios for oil price moves ($100+) and their macroeconomic impacts, clearly framing the current shock and a potential sharper upward move.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Policy seen as around neutral, with two-sided risks. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting yields stable.

wti

today with Brent Crude at $91 a barrel, there's an oil price shock... oil prices have moved higher. The host cites the current high price, and Myron acknowledges the move. No explicit forecast is given, but the context is discussing an existing price shock.

wti

The price move is a series of steps... that has sort of spun the price up Uncertainty over conflict duration causing panic buying and inventory drawdown, but substantial cushions exist.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack explicitly states policy is around neutral and expects to be on hold. This implies no imminent driver for a significant move in yields in either direction, suggesting a sideways trend for the policy-sensitive front end of the curve over the medium term.

wti

The prices of some of the fuels like diesel and jet fuel are soaring. Nightingale's description of 'soaring' fuel prices, coupled with the explicit cause (Strait of Hormuz closure blocking 20% of supply), indicates a sharp upward move in oil and refined product prices in the short term.

wti

We've already seen an oil push-up above $91 a barrel. further upside on that? Yes, that is going to create a little bit of inflationary pressure. Explicitly notes oil already above $91 and expects further upside due to Iran conflict.

yields

if you looked at what happened to tenure treasuries right after the non-Farm Payroll Report came out. yields plunged quite dramatically. They then quickly reversed course Describes immediate plunge then reversal, indicating high volatility rather than sustained directional move.

yields

Because inflation's hot, it's going to look worse now with oil prices, at least on headline. Waller explicitly states that the oil shock will make inflation look worse in the near term ('headline'), which would typically put upward pressure on yields. However, he frames it as a temporary factor the Fed should look through, suggesting the move would be cautious and short-term.

wti

Front-month crude is up, call it 20%. The entire interview context is about a supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Kaiser discusses the risk of prices moving 'sharply and sustainably higher' if the conflict prolongs, and references the potential for attacks on oil infrastructure as an escalatory risk.

wti

I stick with that outlook and I accelerate, and now I think it's gonna happen towards the end of this year... trend towards $40 a barrel Compares to natural gas trajectory (up 100% then down 15%); cites US net exporter status reducing geopolitical risk premium; expects supply surpluses to accelerate.

wti

They've jumped up over the last week Observing recent price increases but explicitly states uncertainty about duration (short-term vs long-term).

dxy

Dollars higher Strong US growth outlook relative to other economies and higher yield environment supports the dollar.

ndx

Continued focus on AI spending as a key economic driver, though high single-stock volatility indicates dispersion beneath low index volatility.

yields

Exactly. And that's exactly why... yields are higher. Strong economic acceleration, upside inflation risk, and potential Fed policy shift from cuts to hikes create upward pressure on yields.

wti

you're going to see a spike in gasoline prices Attributed to Middle East developments causing supply chain issues. Seen as temporary.

dxy

We think it can continue. It's all about the duration of the war and if it means the straight of almost remains closed. if it does. oil and gas prices every day should continue to go up. and that's very supportive for the dollar. Supports dollar through terms of trade, relative growth differentials (Europe underperforming US), and relative central bank reaction functions. Favors Eurodollar down.

wti

even though we could see oil prices going above 100, if they do, they're not going to stay there on a more structural basis Likelihood of prices staying very high for an economically meaningful time is lower than Russia-Ukraine due to military mismatch; assumes Strait reopens in a few months.

yields

GeForward duration has absolutely not proven itself to be a safe haven in the latest escalation... markets very focused on the near-term repricing higher. We've seen in inflation expectations... the Fed will not be cutting rates. Higher inflation expectations due to energy shock and a strong US economy mean the Fed will stay on hold, putting upward pressure on yields.

wti

The confusion about... how long energy prices are still going up has got people worried... they're going up rapidly this morning. Directly cites rapidly rising energy/gasoline prices as a key concern driving market anxiety, implying upward price pressure.

yields

It seems to be a status quo trade... now you're getting back to the trade of we don't know what's going to happen so we're just going to sit there. Initial shock from bad jobs data caused yields to drop, but inflation fears from oil caused a reversal, leading to indecision and range-bound trading.

ndx

I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction in the market... We're not even pullback zone yet, which is you know, five to 10%. The primary driver for a potential market correction is the oil price shock and its economic drag. He rules out a bear market and is long-term bullish, but sees clear near-term headwinds from oil.

wti

I think we'll see $100 oil next week. and remember it began the year under 60. I mean that. That would be a if we do get that that's that's a 70% increase in price. Based on geopolitical conflict (war) dragging on, shutdowns in the Gulf, global shipping issues that 'cannot be fixed overnight'.