yields

I think yields could go up a lot... yields could bounce back and go up a lot as we move forward. His thesis is conditional: if fears of Middle East war and systemic spillover from private credit (BDC) problems are removed, yields have significant upward potential. His historical argument suggests these fears will indeed fade, leading to the rise.

wti

the spike in oil prices overnight really suggest that markets believe this conflict could last longer than initially expected Supply disruptions from conflict, production cuts, and storage filling up creating upward pressure on prices in near term.

wti

higher oil price is a price that's worth paying El-Erian notes oil supply constraints aren't quickly reversible (weeks/months, not days), suggesting upward pressure, but with caution due to political and economic constraints.

yields

those central banks in Europe that have a single mandate are going to be hiking rates While specifically mentioning European central banks, the context of higher inflation (1% higher than otherwise) and Fed staying unchanged suggests upward pressure on yields, particularly in Europe.

ndx

US stocks are going to have a pretty tough time. US equities dragged into center of crisis due to oil shock, stagflation fears, and global sell-off.

wti

oil prices now are $100... and they're quite likely going to stay there for some time as well. Middle East war disruption with no quick resolution in sight.

yields

treasury markets climbing aggressively. Driven by jump in energy prices, inflation fears, and removal of Fed rate cut expectations.

wti

Now we have added a new shot this gasoline price at the pump. We understand that diesel prices will be affected The entire discussion centers on a current energy price shock that is already happening and creating economic impacts, indicating upward price movement.

dxy

we've seen a resurgence in the dollar over the last couple of weeks Dollar strength cited as reason for capping gold/silver gains.

metals

Gains capped by dollar strength, recent rally exhausted, not seeing typical safe-haven inflows.

ndx

the tech actually did pretty well. IGV actually rallied last week. Amazon did well. Microsoft did well Explicit mention of tech strength and specific NDX components performing well.

rut

the small caps got hit late late last week, down over 4% Small caps specifically mentioned as declining significantly.

wti

there's going to be volatility here Production cuts, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions driving ongoing price swings.

wti

You saw prices surge 25% oil, Brent nearing $120. Surge driven by war in Iran and Strait of Hormuz closure, with no end in sight.

dxy

the only thing you really left with is the dollar... the dollar amplifies these energy shocks Dollar benefits as safe haven and due to US energy exporter status, creating a feedback loop with commodity prices.

ndx

equity sell off because of the growth implications Stagflation (higher inflation, lower growth) is toxic for equity markets, implying broad-based selling including growth indices.

wti

with brand-new particular something like hundred dollars a barrel or even higher. Discusses oil at $100+ as a given condition creating stagflationary impact.

yields

bonds under pressure because it's more inflationary. That means higher yields Stagflationary oil shock drives inflation expectations and hawkish central bank pricing.

wti

oil prices have scope to meaningfully move higher I would say from here... we are going to retest that 2022 high for Brent around 140. Disruption in Strait of Hormuz is multiples of 2022 shock; oil market in steep backwardation indicates extreme tightness.

yields

That's driving yields sharply higher with bonds under pressure. Oil price shock creating stagflationary concerns (higher inflation, lower growth) is pushing yields up.

wti

oil prices surging some 25% today heading towards 120 dollars a barrel Acceleration of attacks on infrastructure and production cuts driving immediate price spike.

dxy

Clearly in this round, the safe haven bet will push up the dollar. Sheng explicitly states dollar is getting haven bid due to Middle East conflict, overriding structural bearish dollar positioning based on monetary policy divergence.

wti

you should see elevated oil prices Supply tightness from Middle East conflict, Kuwait and UAE reducing output, storage at max capacity, Strait of Hormuz closed causing transportation difficulties.

dxy

The one thing investors are purely focused on right now... is buying the dollar pure and simple. Inflationary oil shock pushes back Fed cuts, supporting dollar; other traditional havens have fundamental flaws in this scenario.

wti

WTI was trading at 65, 64, 63 and it's now at 102, 103. That's a double increase... we're going to see $4 at the pump more sooner than we other way. Supply disruptions from Strait of Hormuz closure (16M bpd), potential further shutdown from Houthis (up to 20M bpd), continued bombing of infrastructure, and hardline Iranian stance point to sustained upward pressure. Market futures curve is dismissed as not reflecting these fundamental risks.

wti

maybe $100 oil would happen... now as these strikes hit the wider region, there are real fears... the risk of that continues to grow every day Kaczynski describes market shift from expecting short conflict to pricing in prolonged disruption due to infrastructure risks and production shutdowns that are hard to reverse.

wti

WTI was trading at 65, 64, 63, and it's now at 102, 103. That's a double increase... The interviewee describes a near-term doubling of the WTI price from ~$65 to ~$103, framing it as a sharp, realized increase and using it as a baseline to forecast further gasoline price rises.

wti

the price of oil will clearly be affected Iran war creates supply chain concerns but believes Strait of Hormuz won't close long-term

ndx

US stocks are going to have a pretty tough time. It would be very surprising if the US market can withstand this onslaught. Oil price spike eliminates Fed support, drags US equities into global sell-off, deep sell-offs across world markets.

wti

Oil prices are now above $100 rather than below, and they're quite likely going to stay there for some time as well. Host mentions $125/barrel, authorities very concerned, G7 considering oil release indicates supply pressure.

yields

Treasury markets yields climbing there aggressively. Zero chance of Fed rate cuts, inflation jump likely, conditions changed completely - all point to upward pressure on yields.

wti

Oil prices moved higher Thursday, US crude prices hit $80 a barrel The statement describes a recent price movement to $80/barrel, indicating upward direction in the short term

wti

the price of oil will clearly be affected Blankfein states oil is part of supply chain and will be affected by Iran conflict, but sees disruption as temporary (not forever, maybe not even that long a while).

yields

We are moving to a different place in terms of real rates and nominal rates will come down. Productivity gains will bring down wage pressure and inflation after the energy shock, leading to lower rates. High real rates are unsustainable due to the large US debt burden.

wti

everything points to higher prices Cited loss of 20% of world oil and LNG supply, bidding for supplies, and cargo diversions as pressures. The ultimate price level and severity of the move are contingent on the conflict's duration ('does this go on a week? a month?').

wti

Oil was sub 60... now it's 90 plus. What's the next stop... does it go to 120. Discusses the surge as a current, impactful fact driving markets. Questions the ceiling ($120), implying upward momentum is present and uncertain, not that it has peaked.

yields

The move in the bond market... breakeven component... gone way up... driving rates, especially shorter maturities. Attributed directly to inflation fear from surging oil prices. Describes bonds as 'taking it on the chin' and the move as 'very evident'.

yields

I think we're right around neutral... we should stay at least around neutral... I think it could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack sees policy as neutral, not restrictive, with economy performing reasonably well. She expects rates to remain unchanged for an extended period while balancing inflation and labor market risks.

wti

Oil could surge above $100 per barrel A 6-week Hormuz shutdown (handling 20% of global oil) would cause structural repricing, not just volatility, with extreme scenarios pushing crude to $120+

metals

significant volatility in commodities, most notably energy and precious metals Commodity volatility rarely stays contained without affecting stock markets

wti

If it stays close, crude oil is strong, if it opens... gonna collapse Current price spike driven by short squeeze and geopolitical risk; natural gas example shows volatility pattern; producers will increase supply at higher prices

wti

If we start to get them going to $100 or more, and they prolonged, then you start to get into global inflation going up maybe 0.7. Oppenheimer provides explicit scenarios for oil price moves ($100+) and their macroeconomic impacts, clearly framing the current shock and a potential sharper upward move.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Policy seen as around neutral, with two-sided risks. No indication of imminent cuts or hikes, suggesting yields stable.

wti

today with Brent Crude at $91 a barrel, there's an oil price shock... oil prices have moved higher. The host cites the current high price, and Myron acknowledges the move. No explicit forecast is given, but the context is discussing an existing price shock.

wti

The price move is a series of steps... that has sort of spun the price up Uncertainty over conflict duration causing panic buying and inventory drawdown, but substantial cushions exist.

yields

I think we could be on hold for quite some time. Hammack explicitly states policy is around neutral and expects to be on hold. This implies no imminent driver for a significant move in yields in either direction, suggesting a sideways trend for the policy-sensitive front end of the curve over the medium term.

wti

The prices of some of the fuels like diesel and jet fuel are soaring. Nightingale's description of 'soaring' fuel prices, coupled with the explicit cause (Strait of Hormuz closure blocking 20% of supply), indicates a sharp upward move in oil and refined product prices in the short term.

wti

We've already seen an oil push-up above $91 a barrel. further upside on that? Yes, that is going to create a little bit of inflationary pressure. Explicitly notes oil already above $91 and expects further upside due to Iran conflict.

yields

if you looked at what happened to tenure treasuries right after the non-Farm Payroll Report came out. yields plunged quite dramatically. They then quickly reversed course Describes immediate plunge then reversal, indicating high volatility rather than sustained directional move.

wti

Front-month crude is up, call it 20%. The entire interview context is about a supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Kaiser discusses the risk of prices moving 'sharply and sustainably higher' if the conflict prolongs, and references the potential for attacks on oil infrastructure as an escalatory risk.

yields

Because inflation's hot, it's going to look worse now with oil prices, at least on headline. Waller explicitly states that the oil shock will make inflation look worse in the near term ('headline'), which would typically put upward pressure on yields. However, he frames it as a temporary factor the Fed should look through, suggesting the move would be cautious and short-term.

wti

I stick with that outlook and I accelerate, and now I think it's gonna happen towards the end of this year... trend towards $40 a barrel Compares to natural gas trajectory (up 100% then down 15%); cites US net exporter status reducing geopolitical risk premium; expects supply surpluses to accelerate.

wti

They've jumped up over the last week Observing recent price increases but explicitly states uncertainty about duration (short-term vs long-term).

dxy

Dollars higher Strong US growth outlook relative to other economies and higher yield environment supports the dollar.

ndx

Continued focus on AI spending as a key economic driver, though high single-stock volatility indicates dispersion beneath low index volatility.

yields

Exactly. And that's exactly why... yields are higher. Strong economic acceleration, upside inflation risk, and potential Fed policy shift from cuts to hikes create upward pressure on yields.

wti

you're going to see a spike in gasoline prices Attributed to Middle East developments causing supply chain issues. Seen as temporary.

dxy

We think it can continue. It's all about the duration of the war and if it means the straight of almost remains closed. if it does. oil and gas prices every day should continue to go up. and that's very supportive for the dollar. Supports dollar through terms of trade, relative growth differentials (Europe underperforming US), and relative central bank reaction functions. Favors Eurodollar down.

wti

even though we could see oil prices going above 100, if they do, they're not going to stay there on a more structural basis Likelihood of prices staying very high for an economically meaningful time is lower than Russia-Ukraine due to military mismatch; assumes Strait reopens in a few months.

yields

GeForward duration has absolutely not proven itself to be a safe haven in the latest escalation... markets very focused on the near-term repricing higher. We've seen in inflation expectations... the Fed will not be cutting rates. Higher inflation expectations due to energy shock and a strong US economy mean the Fed will stay on hold, putting upward pressure on yields.

wti

The confusion about... how long energy prices are still going up has got people worried... they're going up rapidly this morning. Directly cites rapidly rising energy/gasoline prices as a key concern driving market anxiety, implying upward price pressure.

yields

It seems to be a status quo trade... now you're getting back to the trade of we don't know what's going to happen so we're just going to sit there. Initial shock from bad jobs data caused yields to drop, but inflation fears from oil caused a reversal, leading to indecision and range-bound trading.

ndx

I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction in the market... We're not even pullback zone yet, which is you know, five to 10%. The primary driver for a potential market correction is the oil price shock and its economic drag. He rules out a bear market and is long-term bullish, but sees clear near-term headwinds from oil.

wti

I think we'll see $100 oil next week. and remember it began the year under 60. I mean that. That would be a if we do get that that's that's a 70% increase in price. Based on geopolitical conflict (war) dragging on, shutdowns in the Gulf, global shipping issues that 'cannot be fixed overnight'.

ndx

I believe we're in the early days of an AI revolution and what's going to be a secular tech bull market. Views current software selloff as disconnected from reality, sees capex dollars continuing to increase despite jitters, believes military reliance on tech will increase due to geopolitical conflicts, and states we're less than a third of the way through the long-term thesis.

wti

On reopening the Strait of Hormuz: I'll give you a number... about two weeks. By providing a specific timeline for a key supply chokepoint to remain closed, Abrams explicitly signals that the supply disruption—a primary driver of the recent price spike—will persist for the short term, supporting elevated or rising prices.

wti

Brent crude backup over $84, I think that that is the... driver of short term, both ups and downs and volatility within the equity market is through the channel of... of oil Identifies oil as primary driver of short-term equity market volatility, with daily movements tied to oil price fluctuations.

wti

If there are going to be sustained persistent disruptions to energy facilities in the region, the Strait of Hormuz, that could actually lead oil prices to top $100. We estimate reaching up to $108 a barrel.

wti

The president's war has obviously disrupted oil prices in their way up over the last couple of days. The host explicitly states oil prices have gone up due to geopolitical conflict, framing the immediate shock. Kashkari does not contest this factual observation but discusses its uncertain duration and inflationary impact.

yields

Already the rates market is repricing the cuts we assumed this year. The repricing of expected Fed cuts is directly linked to inflationary concerns stemming from higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

wti

if the straight-of-home was closed for long period of time, apparently, worst case scenario, yes, we will have an oil price that is above 100 dollars... modeling 110 in a worst case scenario 20% of supply missing, not all replaceable quickly; pipelines limited, can't instantly ramp up Venezuela or US fracking.

wti

One thing is oil. Everything second derivative of oil. Oil causing dollar squeeze, permeating risk spectrum; stocks don't like it.

wti

This is the highest oil's traded since September of 2023 and it's the biggest weekly jump since 2022 Host mentions WTI up 11% today, on brink of $90; panel discusses Qatar warning of $150/barrel and production shutdown risks.

wti

We know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high stable energy output, which is going to be very good not only for energy markets but for risk premium around the world. Believes the military conflict will be resolved soon, leading to a restoration of supply and a decrease in the risk premium currently baked into prices.

wti

I'm just watching prices at the pump. They've jumped up over the last week you can see that when you drive around. Barkin explicitly notes the recent jump in pump prices (a direct function of oil/WTI prices) following geopolitical events. He frames it as an observed near-term increase but explicitly states uncertainty over whether it will be short-term or long-term, implying a 'short' term view on the direction.

wti

Triple digits. $120 possible. If nothing moves, could see $100 by early next week. Based on analysis of Strait of Hormuz blockage, storage filling up, production cuts, and supply shortages developing.

wti

You're seeing oil, it's not really spiking that much. He explicitly states oil is not spiking much and links US military escort of tankers to a political need to prevent oil prices from going through the roof before midterms to control inflation. This points to an expectation of contained, rangebound prices in the near term.

yields

Inflation is kind of going in the wrong direction right now. Feroli explicitly states inflation is moving the wrong way (core PCE rising) and links Middle East tensions to concerns about energy price pass-through. This suggests upward pressure on yields as the Fed remains on pause and inflation concerns persist.

dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

I think they're going to go up... I think it can go another 10 or 20 dollars up from here. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are disrupting tanker traffic and creating supply risks, with no near-term truce expected.

yields

10-year Treasury yields again sitting at 4.12%. Quite elevated here. It's not sparking that typical safe haven bond buying yields are continuing to edge higher as investors really kind of monitor those latest developments that's going on with the conflict.

ndx

I think it's a secular bull market that continues to be led by tech. Entire interview is a bullish thesis on major tech/AI companies (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, etc.) which dominate NDX. Sees current sell-off as a bottoming opportunity and is in 'year 3 of an 8-10 year build out'.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.