dxy

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. In a crisis, the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand during geopolitical crisis provides short-term support, but longer-term deficit risks pose a threat.

yields

We know interest rates are going to be higher longer. Linked to inflationary pressures from the Iran war affecting fuel, fertilizer, and military spending.

ndx

We are long the equity market... I like equities... orient it a bit more towards the equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. Cites powerful tech earnings (e.g., semis up 97%), extraordinary technicals (buybacks > IPOs), and a productivity revolution favoring big caps.

yields

My sense is that 10-year note will drift lower over the, you know, through this year. Expects Fed cuts, sees initiatives (Fed balance sheet, fiscal) to contain long-end rates and stimulate housing.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

wti

We did increase our Brent oil price target. We think that will average about $100 by the time we get to the end of June and by the time we get to the end of the year at $90. The forecast is for a rise to $100, but the tone is measured, noting the market has priced in a Strait reopening and that the consumer can absorb the increase. The year-end target of $90 is lower than the mid-year peak, indicating a cautious upward path.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

ndx

we just had a brand-new all-time high. Refers to stock market (implied S&P/NDX) hitting all-time highs, presenting it as a current fact and testament to economic strength.

wti

I think your oil price will go down to lower than what it was before. Ties lower oil prices directly to a successful Iran deal being announced 'fairly soon'.

wti

Oil prices are coming down Attributed to potential Iran deal progress reducing geopolitical risk premium

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

ndx

Earnings, earnings, earnings, positive analyst revisions and the US is the oasis around the world. Bullish due to strong corporate earnings, positive analyst revisions, and US being preferred destination for global capital compared to other major economies.

metals

Bull case is like 81 to 86...within kind of the next few weeks...silver could get that kind of second leg higher into the 80s Based on constructive Iran talks leading to lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, with silver in structural deficit providing support.

wti

speaker2: 'I assume oil's topped here, but it's topped in a regime where it's going to lead to a tailwind of inflation over the next little while.' Oil seen as having peaked but remaining elevated, contributing to inflation. No explicit directional call beyond 'topped', implying sideways/rangebound near-term.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

"$120 would be optimistic. In a physical market desperate for oil, $200 might be cheap" Reasoning is based on physical market dislocation if Iran conflict ceasefire fails, with a critical 2-4 week timeline. Confidence in shipping and agreements will be slow, preventing a quick return to pre-war prices.

wti

WTI crude oil jumping back above $100... May crude oil futures... up just about 8% here... The effective shutdown of the Strait drove energy prices sharply higher. The immediate catalyst is the geopolitical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The speaker frames this as a direct, sharp reaction to the news.

yields

reinforced those expectations that central banks may delay any kind of interest rate cut. The speaker directly links the energy price spike to expectations that central banks will delay rate cuts. Delaying cuts implies a 'higher for longer' stance, which is typically associated with upward pressure on yields, especially in the short term as the market reprices the timing of monetary policy.

ndx

stock markets falling Geopolitical risk, higher yields, falling confidence, and growth slowdown create negative environment for equities.

wti

higher oil prices Iran conflict and control of Hormuz creates supply disruption risks that drive oil prices higher.

yields

bond yields higher Geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will push bond yields upward.

wti

we've seen that now with oil prices soaring The announcement of the US naval blockade is a direct supply shock, leading to an immediate price spike.

ndx

Stock market is being lower... you're gonna have stock markets falling... Even the peak of the war, the S&P was down 4%. He directly links escalation to lower stock markets in the short term. However, he is overwhelmingly bullish on tech/AI long-term, calling it a 'secular boom' that will drive markets. The short-term 'cautious down' view is specific to the war escalation scenario.

wti

all price are going to be higher than otherwise... oil prices go to 150, 200... oil is at 120, 130, 140... oil can go towards 80, 80 plus. It's not going to go back to 60. Roubini's analysis is conditional on conflict scenarios. For de-escalation with Iranian control, he sees a sustained higher floor (~$80+). For full escalation, he explicitly forecasts prices reaching $120-$140+ in the short term (2-3 months). The direction is clearly up from pre-war levels in all scenarios, but the magnitude depends on policy.

yields

Bond yields being higher... bond yields higher. Explicitly stated as a consequence of the conflict escalation, due to higher inflation expectations and growth concerns.

wti

President Trump went on to announce a blockade of the straight-of-formers, spiking oil prices, of course this morning. The announced blockade will halt at least 2 million barrels a day of Iranian oil flowing through the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating an immediate supply shock.

wti

oil crashed 16% and then shot back over $100 Iran Strait toll crisis creating uncertainty; traders likely to sell off into weekend; different crude grades at varying prices.

wti

think prices would come down very quickly especially when it looks like it is safe to bring maritime traffic through the Gulf. Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to drop dramatically. Bolton argues that securing the Strait of Hormuz and allowing Gulf Arab oil (but not Iranian oil) to flow will quickly increase supply, reversing the war-driven price spike. He references a pre-conflict petroleum surplus.

wti

Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to drop dramatically... think prices would come down very quickly especially when it looks like It is safe to bring a maritime traffic through the Gulf. His thesis is that the current high prices are due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed/unsafe. A successful U.S. military action to reopen it would restore the pre-crisis oil glut, leading to a rapid price decline.

yields

higher energy and higher input costs lead to higher inflation. So, ergo's the simple conclusion that yields should move up... Our view has been that we are in a more bullish structural environment for commodities, including oil. And so we believe the press for yields actually does remain on the upside... in the next three to six months, we will see more pressure build up to that effect. And I think that means for yields, the path is higher.

wti

We're going to stand much higher than we have been... Before the war, we were closer to 65. Right now, if Trump keeps on doing this things, we're going to be over 100. I think the pressure is going to be on him to throttle things back so it wouldn't surprise me if at the rest of the year we hang closer to 100 but below it. Expects sustained higher prices due to ongoing conflict and supply constraints, tempered by political pressure on Trump.

yields

yields have risen sharply from where they ended February CPI driven by fuel costs created an 'inflation-on' period, not risk-off. The Iran conflict has trumped all other factors, putting upward pressure on yields.

wti

Prices just need to be higher than that $82 going forward. Structural supply constraints, higher transport costs, inventory depletion, and potential toll scenario create floor of $80-100.

metals

I continue to think the gold to oil ratio is going to finish this cycle way, way higher, way higher, over 100, over 200, maybe, maybe as high as 400 barrels an ounce. Sees gold as a hedge against counterparty/credit risk if supply chains break. The ceasefire was seen as a 'Suez moment' potentially leading to a gold-settled multi-currency system, which is 'good for gold'.

wti

I think oil is going a lot below 60. Part of his thesis that the gold-to-oil ratio will soar to 100-400. Expects near-term volatility due to war, but long-term direction is down.

wti

It's kind of inevitable that's where we're going to end up... it's reasonable when you look at those long dated futures going out to December of this year to see lower prices. Believes a deal will be struck to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, returning oil flows to a post-war equilibrium, which futures markets are already pricing.

wti

If we can open the straight and get Gulf oil flowing, prices would come down very quickly. His support for a US blockade is predicated on the goal of reopening the Strait for Gulf oil, which he believes would rapidly increase supply and lower prices.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

Potentially closer to 80, 75, 80 by the end of the year... you're going to see a risk premium of 10 to 15 dollars by the end of the year. He explicitly forecasts a year-end price of $75-80, which is below current ~$98, implying a downward move. However, he emphasizes a slow process and a persistent $10-15 risk premium, indicating the decline will be cautious and not a crash. The term 'cautious up' is interpreted here as 'cautiously moving up to a lower level from an even higher spike', but the directional intent is a moderated decline from current war-premium highs.

wti

Oil prices not back to $60 but potentially closer to $75-80 by year-end. Even with ongoing negotiation/ceasefire, risk premium of $10-15 through end of year.

wti

So the price is going to have to go up and it's going to have to stay up... I think we're probably gonna have to see much higher prices Arithmetic of global oil shortage (~13M bpd) necessitates a sharp price increase to ration demand. $100+ may not be enough if the supply disruption is protracted.

yields

I do think you're going to see inflation expectations kick in in interest rates and they're going to move higher. Based on thesis that a protracted Middle East risk premium will be inflationary, increasing nominal GDP. Current yield rise is from real yields; inflation expectations will follow if situation persists.

wti

oil prices yesterday, they went down 20%, but they stabilized 50% higher than they were 12 months ago. The description is of a sharp drop followed by stabilization at a much higher level than a year ago. This paints a picture of high volatility but a recent move to a plateau, suggesting a near-term sideways or rangebound dynamic rather than a continued directional move down.

wti

Energy prices are just higher than they were before the recent events... energy prices overall... is going to be higher as a result. Infrastructure damage, Strait of Hormuz closure, and ongoing conflict risks.

wti

We're looking at a very volatile summer coming in... we are a long way from seeing any sort of resolution... that is to say, a resumption in prices going back to where they were prior to the conflict. Physical infrastructure damage unresolved, futures market disconnect, seasonal demand spike imminent, and production response too slow collectively point to sustained high/rising prices in the short term (summer).

wti

if oil prices stay up Conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, creating supply constraints beyond just price increases

yields

interest rates would hike...there might be a scenario of a hike, which is the opposite of what we would have thought a few months ago Higher oil prices ? higher inflation ? potential Fed rate hikes despite previous dovish expectations

wti

our baseline case is that we see average oil prices on a Brent measure that slide down to around $85 in the third quarter and then further down towards $80 by year end Baseline assumes decline from current levels but acknowledges recent volatility with oil trading around $110 per barrel and downside risk scenarios where prices could remain elevated.

yields

we've seen pricing of fewer rate cuts by the Fed lead to upward pressure on long term rates. We've seen higher inflation expectations push higher long term rates. And we've also seen questions around fiscal sustainability and fed influence pressure long term rates higher. Inflation remains above 2% target with further inflationary pressures expected, Fed likely on hold, creating upward pressure on yields despite geopolitical conflict that would normally push yields down.

wti

oil plunged below $100 a barrel after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire Ceasefire agreement reduces geopolitical risk premium in oil markets

ndx

I really see a sideways market Expects 2-3 months of sideways movement until geopolitical resolution improves. Long-term bullish on AI and economy, but near-term upside limited.

wti

oil is still in the upper 90s Cites current price level ($80-100 vs. past $60) as a persistent problem, impacting corporate earnings (e.g., Delta's fuel costs). No expectation of near-term decline mentioned.

metals

"I'm getting pretty bullish on gold again." (Quinn); "Gold is becoming a really great diversifier." (Tyler) Both Quinn and Tyler are explicitly bullish on gold as a debasement hedge against market manipulation and currency weakness. Tyler cites strong fundamentals for gold miners (high margins, M&A activity). The context is a medium-term hedge against inflationary policies and dollar weakness.

ndx

the bull market that started in October of 2022 has further to go... US tech has been all of those end up leading Explicitly states tech leadership in continuing bull market.

wti

we're looking at a Brent price that ultimately lands in the mid to high 80s, WTI the low to mid 80s Describes as structural change taking years, indicating long-term upward shift from pre-conflict levels.

yields

the fall in yields here telling you that that is an endorsement of higher multiple equities References current yield drop as positive for equities, implying near-term downward pressure.

wti

at the very least, you're looking at a balanced market probably closer to 80. And then each day that this ticks on, you're looking at energy prices going higher from here. Surplus gone due to Middle East conflict damage and logistics disruption. Even if conflict ends, baseline ~$80 vs previous $60.

wti

At the very least, you're looking at a balanced market probably closer to $80. And then each day that this ticks on, you're looking at energy prices going higher from here. Physical disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping and Middle East energy assets (Qatar gas, Iraq production, Saudi/UAE pipelines) is severe and will take months/years to repair, eliminating the prior supply surplus.

wti

oil prices are high and that hurts the consumer... there's definitely a left tail where things can go really, really badly... there's also a right tail where things could go a lot better and oil prices could come down Markets pricing both escalation risk (higher prices) and settlement potential (lower prices), creating volatility. No explicit 'sharp up' forecast - rather acknowledgment of current high prices with potential for movement in either direction.

ndx

equities will boom... much higher equities in the next 24 hours. Geopolitical shocks tend to create buying opportunities; compares to 1990-91 Kuwait invasion where a 20% sell-off was completely reversed.

wti

You would expect the big falls in oil prices to continue... much cheaper oil If Iran agrees to ceasefire and reopens Strait of Hormuz, it releases its economic leverage, allowing oil stocks to be rebuilt.

wti

The nearby contracts are making new lifetime highs... they keep making new highs. Imminent oil supply shortage due to 35-36 day shipping halt from Persian Gulf; failure of ceasefire would extend disruption.

yields

That should put the Fed on hold for a long time... We might be talking about them hiking rates later this year if there is some kind of persistent inflation. 0.9% March CPI (3%+ YoY) driven by oil prices forces Fed to stay on hold or consider hikes, implying higher yields.

yields

the ten year yield might go up if the Fed starts releasing Advocates for policy rate cuts which would steepen the yield curve, explicitly acknowledging this would push up long-end yields/mortgage rates.