dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

ndx

this is a buying opportunity McCarteny explicitly frames the geopolitical sell-off as a buying opportunity, citing strong underlying tailwinds like the 'AI revolution' and 'double digits earning boom.' She notes a 'flight to safety in large cap U.S. stocks,' which includes NDX constituents.

wti

if oil goes up and is sustained at 90 for a considerable point in time Presents a conditional, risk-based scenario from UBS: sustained $90 oil for six months would have a measurable negative economic impact (60 bps off consumer spending). This frames the direction as cautiously upward, dependent on conflict duration.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If current disruptions continue, we think oil prices can basically go up to a hundred, or a hundred dollars per barrel. Current price already includes $19 war premium. Further disruption, especially closure of Strait of Hormuz, would push prices sharply higher.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

dxy

The US dollar did turn lower after reports that Iranian operatives made offers to discuss terms of ending the war... since then we saw the dollar index turn negative... jumped above 99 for the first time since mid January. The dollar index spiked above 99 on conflict/safe-haven flows, then turned negative on peace talk reports, showing sharp, news-driven swings in both directions.

metals

Even though gold is typically considered a safe haven asset, there are times when the pressure just becomes too intense leading to a liquidation event... They sold gold, they sold silver, and they sold platinum. Those were down very heavy during the session... Futures up here about 1.6% here today. Metals experienced a heavy sell-off (liquidation) followed by a sharp rebound overnight on dollar weakness, indicating high volatility driven by conflicting forces of safe-haven demand and dollar/rate pressure.

yields

10-year Treasury yields that spiked nearly 20 basis points over two sessions here hitting a multi-week high right around that 4.10%... as the Iranian conflict really driven those energies energy to surge reigniting the inflation fears Conflict-driven energy price surge is directly linked to reignited inflation fears, causing a sharp, rapid rise in yields.

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

dxy

when you get panic... higher liquidity profile garners a premium... when people get fearful, that's where they go [to the dollar]. Explicitly states the dollar benefits from its liquidity during panic/risk-off events like the current geopolitical shock.

yields

only once before in 1990 did interest rates go up or bond sell-off... we're seeing the market kind of set the tone for where rates want to go. Draws parallel to 1990, a similar commodity-driven inflationary period following US involvement in conflict, suggesting the current situation is driving rates higher.

wti

Short war with oil at $80-90 probably won't have major effect, but if prolonged, all bets off.

wti

Oil has to stay in eighty eighty five dollars for at least three to four months for having meaningful inflation impact. Sees a prolonged period of elevated oil prices as necessary for a significant macroeconomic impact, implying a view that prices will be sustained at higher levels, not just a short spike.

metals

Gold has quite a bit of downside for the next couple of weeks.

wti

If this lasts weeks, months, you're going to see an energy crisis in the developing world and higher prices in the developed world...

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

wti

You could see oil trade even lower later today... if they release SPR.

yields

cuts are being priced further back, September now not June July. Explicitly states that Fed rate cut expectations are being pushed out, which directly implies higher yields in the near term.

rut

The Russell 2000 down about 2.5% Explicit reporting of current decline amid broad market selloff.

wti

crude oil prices up about 8%... WTI crude oil futures well they're pushing up here at 77.14, high was 77.53, up about 8% here Direct reporting of current sharp price increase due to Middle East conflict escalation and supply concerns.

yields

10-year Treasury yields well 3.96% yesterday, 4.10% here today. A big hawkish move Explicit reporting of yield increase from 3.96% to 4.10% described as 'hawkish move'.

wti

If this war with Iran... oil goes to 80, 90, 100... if it's short and not prolonged, it won't have a major effect. Explicitly sets a conditional price target range (80-100) in the short term if the war is contained, implying a sharp move up from current levels (~71).

dxy

Dollar will do well in this type of scenario.

metals

If conflict lasts longer than everyone thinks, gold will go higher... could go way higher.

wti

All roads do lead to higher oil prices

wti

This is a stagflationary impulse... Prices go up Explicitly states the shock causes prices (i.e., oil/energy) to rise.

ndx

the overall AI tech trade is exhausting itself, and investors need to look at other places for returns Recommends focusing on non-AI trade like consumer staples instead of tech

wti

there's a fundamental bull case for the price of oil...it's one of the cheapest assets in the world Still likes oil stocks despite potential short-term volatility from geopolitical events

yields

we've seen a rise around the world in sovereign yields because of the worries about higher inflation driven by energy costs Bond market quickly adjusting to oil price jump, pricing out Fed rate cuts

yields

we will mostly trade in the range of 4 to 4.5 Based on bond market shift from growth/flight-to-quality concerns to inflation concerns, with 10-year up 10bps after ISM data, but range-bound unless financial instability emerges.

wti

Crude needed this headline... We were starting to see some panic trading overnight with crude trading up 8%... The market is going to significantly sell off when those ships start moving. Explicitly describes panic-driven spikes and expected sell-offs based on fluid logistics and security developments, indicating high volatility in the short term.

wti

the rise in the oil price was sustainable... oil prices would stay high for longer

yields

yields starting to rise yesterday, they continue to do so today... it's now spread from Treasuries right across the Asian zone

dxy

dollar at over three month highs in the last two sessions. We've seen a massive spike in the dollar Flight to safety amid geopolitical uncertainty from Iran attack

metals

gold down almost 5% Dollar strength at 3-month highs pressuring commodity prices, despite gold's recent safe-haven status

ndx

NASDAQ... all down over 2% near session lows Risk-off selling post-Iran attack, VIX spike to 27, broad-based equity selloff

rut

Russell 2000 all down over 2% near session lows Part of broad-based equity selloff in risk-off environment

wti

massive rally above the seventy seven dollar a barrel level for crude oil Geopolitical risk from Iran attack driving oil prices higher

rut

small caps... it's been a big winner for our clients... these are the times to be dollar cost averaging in... we think two three weeks from now all these areas will be up from where we are today He explicitly includes small caps as an area he is buying on dips and expects to be higher in 2-3 weeks, despite acknowledging it's 'taking a beating today.'

dxy

we're up a dollar again today. We're at 99 on the dollar... The dollar goes up and oil prices go up Knapp explicitly notes the dollar is up sharply ('up a dollar again'), links it to the oil price spike due to the US being a petrocurrency exporter, and describes the correlation as a current, exacerbating factor.

wti

when you see the spike in gas oil prices... they have a big problem The entire discussion is framed around a recent and ongoing spike in oil (and gas) prices due to geopolitical targeting in the Gulf, presenting it as a current, sharp increase.

metals

Gold is continuing to be an effective hedge in times of geopolitical volatility. Gold expected to perform well as a safe-haven asset amid conflict.

wti

Base case is what we're seeing playout right now, which is this introduction of new risk premium on politics into the oil price. This seven to eight dollar handle increase in the oil price overnight, not a spike to the 100 and above.

metals

Gold and gold miners... Gold is $35T asset, play on geopolitics, debasement, inflation, central bank incompetence. If way out is bailing out private credit, gold prices that in. Still long gold, plays via PHYS. Gold miners up 100%. Commodity trade here to stay. Geopolitics, inflation, central bank actions all supportive.

ndx

I would expect to see continued volatility on an intraday basis. While not giving a pure price direction, she explicitly forecasts continued intraday volatility. This is a 'volatile' directional call for the short term. Her emphasis on severe underlying weakness (avg member down >25%) supports a fragile, churning environment.

metals

The fact that gold's not making new highs on this... should be a wake-up call that... maybe the bull market has happened... Silver had a nasty, nasty reversal yesterday. Points to poor price action in precious metals despite the geopolitical catalyst, suggesting a pause or end to the bull move.

wti

energy was getting better regardless of this. And if we get any sell-the-news in energy or oil over the next couple of weeks, that's actually what you want to be buying Identifies energy as the clear market leadership that has been improving for months and should be bought on dips.

yields

if you look at the price action in the last couple days, It's bond yields up, particularly in Europe. Sees recent price action as signaling a return to an environment of rising yields.

wti

I would not fade this current spike... I would be careful fading it because it starts to become much more serious... this is going to be a structural repricing... the risks are to the upside. Geopolitical risks from Iranian proxies create protracted supply disruption risks; hoarding by China/India increases demand; OPEC capacity constraints limit supply response; two-supply-chain world requires higher inventories.

wti

Chancellor acknowledges oil/gas price developments are 'crucial' and that extended Middle East conflict would impact UK economy due to region's importance for oil/gas. Meeting with producers to discuss price scenarios implies recognition of upward price risk in coming days/weeks.

dxy

Assets are moving into the dollar, we can see that Investor uncertainty during Middle East conflict driving dollar strength as safe haven

wti

oil prices are going to go up Conflict disruption in Strait of Hormuz and regional chaos driving oil price increases

ndx

I think it's going to be a lot of volatility before we know how long this is going to go on. Volatility expectation tied to oil price shock uncertainty and its impact on inflation/Fed policy.

yields

Jablonski states oil price could be inflationary and 'perhaps curtail the amount of rates that the government will be able to do' – implying higher yields due to reduced rate cut expectations.

dxy

the dollar here strengthening with the spike in oil prices Traders dialing back Fed rate cut expectations due to inflation concerns

metals

Gold rose to the highest in a month... gold is up about 22% this year... up another 2.8% Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, stagflation environment favorable for gold, technical breakout patterns

ndx

The NASDAQ down about 1.1% here Risk-off sentiment from geopolitical tensions, hedge funds trimming long positions

wti

crude oil futures up 5% Geopolitical tensions driving oil higher, but reference to previous conflict where oil popped then collapsed suggests caution

yields

10-year Treasury yields are dipping below that 4%, 3.97% Flight to safety amid geopolitical tensions, despite inflation concerns

metals

Gold is once again heading towards record highs, that seems to be the one constant throughout all of this. People unanimously agree that gold is the place to go for a haven play.

metals

Gold is reflecting that [uncertainty] and has reflected that over the last year, year and a half. Up. Gold is seen as a hedge against the sustained uncertainty that has been a market staple for 18 months, which the current conflict exacerbates.

yields

You start it off with the flight to quality and lower yields. And that quickly reversed course and now you're seeing higher yields and I think that's the right reaction. The war is inflationary (not disinflationary), adding to existing inflationary pressures from rising input prices. The bond market's initial flight-to-quality move has reversed as it prices in higher inflation.

wti

If we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends those prices are going to drop, I believe lower than even before. The ongoing military conflict with Iran is causing supply disruption and uncertainty, leading to near-term price pressure. The expectation is for a reversal once the conflict concludes.

wti

We're looking in the second half, we were bullish because basically the shale production can't be increasing the way it has, keeping up with global growth. That's why oil is up 37% this year. Geopolitical risks with Iran could further tighten supply, especially if US controls Iranian exports via Kharg Island. China's inventory building suggests anticipation of tighter market.

wti

I'm pretty sure that that green candle we see and crude oil right now will switch to red by time we get to the midterms. Argues the oil price surge is short-term, accentuating a bear market due to Western supply response and political incentives for lower prices ahead of US elections.

metals

It's not so much the precious metals that are getting hit. It's actually the industrial metals... silver move to the downside here. Also copper, palladium, platinum also moving lower on the industrial front. Fears of slowing economic growth in Europe and Asia due to potential energy crisis from prolonged conflict.

wti

200-week moving average has been the area of resistance... that's exactly where we saw the price actually kind of stop out at... market's kind of settling out. Technical resistance, limited refinery damage, and OPEC quota increase being a 'drop in the bucket' suggest range-bound near-term action.

yields

10-year Treasury has moved over 17 basis points. That's a very aggressive move. So we are starting to see yield volatility actually ramp up here. Hot ISM prices (70.5) driving yield moves and backing out rate cuts.

wti

Oil jumped in the early hours of trading. They're close to $80 a barrel. Direct observation of market move following military strikes.

yields

Treasuries are no longer the safe haven. They obviously got the bid immediately, but then people in the right to this inflationary story. Inflationary pressures from the conflict are overriding the initial safe-haven bid, pushing yields higher. Fed cuts are being pushed back.

yields

We now have the lowest mortgage rates in over 3 years, they're under six percent. and then 10 UtreasureCarct the 4% level. And so that's very, very bullish. So as rates come down, it will cause the Fed to cut. Falling goods prices (deflationary) recognized by bond market as bullish, leading to lower yields. Expects Fed cuts to follow.