wti

Brent crude backup over $84, I think that that is the... driver of short term, both ups and downs and volatility within the equity market is through the channel of... of oil Identifies oil as primary driver of short-term equity market volatility, with daily movements tied to oil price fluctuations.

wti

If there are going to be sustained persistent disruptions to energy facilities in the region, the Strait of Hormuz, that could actually lead oil prices to top $100. We estimate reaching up to $108 a barrel.

wti

The president's war has obviously disrupted oil prices in their way up over the last couple of days. The host explicitly states oil prices have gone up due to geopolitical conflict, framing the immediate shock. Kashkari does not contest this factual observation but discusses its uncertain duration and inflationary impact.

yields

Already the rates market is repricing the cuts we assumed this year. The repricing of expected Fed cuts is directly linked to inflationary concerns stemming from higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

wti

I'm just watching prices at the pump. They've jumped up over the last week you can see that when you drive around. Barkin explicitly notes the recent jump in pump prices (a direct function of oil/WTI prices) following geopolitical events. He frames it as an observed near-term increase but explicitly states uncertainty over whether it will be short-term or long-term, implying a 'short' term view on the direction.

yields

Inflation is kind of going in the wrong direction right now. Feroli explicitly states inflation is moving the wrong way (core PCE rising) and links Middle East tensions to concerns about energy price pass-through. This suggests upward pressure on yields as the Fed remains on pause and inflation concerns persist.

wti

You're seeing oil, it's not really spiking that much. He explicitly states oil is not spiking much and links US military escort of tankers to a political need to prevent oil prices from going through the roof before midterms to control inflation. This points to an expectation of contained, rangebound prices in the near term.

dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

yields

10-year Treasury yields again sitting at 4.12%. Quite elevated here. It's not sparking that typical safe haven bond buying yields are continuing to edge higher as investors really kind of monitor those latest developments that's going on with the conflict.

ndx

I think it's a secular bull market that continues to be led by tech. Entire interview is a bullish thesis on major tech/AI companies (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, etc.) which dominate NDX. Sees current sell-off as a bottoming opportunity and is in 'year 3 of an 8-10 year build out'.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

wti

I do think that energy prices are going to retreat once we start to see this situation in Iran start to subside. And our year-end forecast for oil is $55 to $60 per barrel. Assumes conflict duration of 3-4 weeks; longer would force revisit. China has incentive to reopen Strait of Hormuz. U.S. is net exporter, reducing impact.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

ndx

this is a buying opportunity McCarteny explicitly frames the geopolitical sell-off as a buying opportunity, citing strong underlying tailwinds like the 'AI revolution' and 'double digits earning boom.' She notes a 'flight to safety in large cap U.S. stocks,' which includes NDX constituents.

wti

if oil goes up and is sustained at 90 for a considerable point in time Presents a conditional, risk-based scenario from UBS: sustained $90 oil for six months would have a measurable negative economic impact (60 bps off consumer spending). This frames the direction as cautiously upward, dependent on conflict duration.

rut

The Russell's up 3% year to date. Part of his diversification thesis - small caps are performing better than tech/mega-caps YTD.

wti

I'm talking oil above 100, at which point you're probably going to end up with a global recession. War duration is key variable - short war (month) means contained prices, long war means oil above $100 and recession.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If current disruptions continue, we think oil prices can basically go up to a hundred, or a hundred dollars per barrel. Current price already includes $19 war premium. Further disruption, especially closure of Strait of Hormuz, would push prices sharply higher.

wti

If this would go on for weeks and months, then of course it represents a big macro shock... We're seeing a large geopolitical risk premium. Storage constraints could force production cuts if Strait closure prolonged.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

dxy

The US dollar did turn lower after reports that Iranian operatives made offers to discuss terms of ending the war... since then we saw the dollar index turn negative... jumped above 99 for the first time since mid January. The dollar index spiked above 99 on conflict/safe-haven flows, then turned negative on peace talk reports, showing sharp, news-driven swings in both directions.

metals

Even though gold is typically considered a safe haven asset, there are times when the pressure just becomes too intense leading to a liquidation event... They sold gold, they sold silver, and they sold platinum. Those were down very heavy during the session... Futures up here about 1.6% here today. Metals experienced a heavy sell-off (liquidation) followed by a sharp rebound overnight on dollar weakness, indicating high volatility driven by conflicting forces of safe-haven demand and dollar/rate pressure.

yields

10-year Treasury yields that spiked nearly 20 basis points over two sessions here hitting a multi-week high right around that 4.10%... as the Iranian conflict really driven those energies energy to surge reigniting the inflation fears Conflict-driven energy price surge is directly linked to reignited inflation fears, causing a sharp, rapid rise in yields.

dxy

If the war continues no question. The R-Sing is longer... the longer oil prices stay elevated, the lower the chance in the market's mind of continued Fed rate cuts, which also narrows the rate differential argument against the dollar. Flight to safety and reduced Fed cut expectations support dollar.

metals

I still like precious metals... I think that's a safest place. On the commodity side, copper structurally is just in such a bullish demand supply dynamic that I don't see that changing regardless of what happens with that on board. Haven asset during geopolitical risk; structural supply-demand for copper.

wti

I do not care about the spot price of oil. It goes to $100, $120. If it comes back in a week to two weeks, the economy will blink and not miss it. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran war; physical disruption to Strait of Hormuz.

metals

Long-term structural theme is still there... It's a time when we focus more on safe havens like gold and other real assets and gold fulfills that part of the equation.

yields

clearly now with the developments, if this ends up being sustained, the initial reaction will be what does this mean for inflation... we have seen the reaction when it comes to treasuries and across the curve yields are up

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

dxy

when you get panic... higher liquidity profile garners a premium... when people get fearful, that's where they go [to the dollar]. Explicitly states the dollar benefits from its liquidity during panic/risk-off events like the current geopolitical shock.

yields

only once before in 1990 did interest rates go up or bond sell-off... we're seeing the market kind of set the tone for where rates want to go. Draws parallel to 1990, a similar commodity-driven inflationary period following US involvement in conflict, suggesting the current situation is driving rates higher.

wti

Short war with oil at $80-90 probably won't have major effect, but if prolonged, all bets off.

wti

Oil has to stay in eighty eighty five dollars for at least three to four months for having meaningful inflation impact. Sees a prolonged period of elevated oil prices as necessary for a significant macroeconomic impact, implying a view that prices will be sustained at higher levels, not just a short spike.

metals

Gold was up more than 20%... obviously risk is taken off the table, profit taking for sure.

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

wti

You could see oil trade even lower later today... if they release SPR.

rut

The Russell 2000 down about 2.5% Explicit reporting of current decline amid broad market selloff.

wti

crude oil prices up about 8%... WTI crude oil futures well they're pushing up here at 77.14, high was 77.53, up about 8% here Direct reporting of current sharp price increase due to Middle East conflict escalation and supply concerns.

yields

10-year Treasury yields well 3.96% yesterday, 4.10% here today. A big hawkish move Explicit reporting of yield increase from 3.96% to 4.10% described as 'hawkish move'.

wti

If this war with Iran... oil goes to 80, 90, 100... if it's short and not prolonged, it won't have a major effect. Explicitly sets a conditional price target range (80-100) in the short term if the war is contained, implying a sharp move up from current levels (~71).

wti

This is a stagflationary impulse... Prices go up Explicitly states the shock causes prices (i.e., oil/energy) to rise.

yields

we will mostly trade in the range of 4 to 4.5 Based on bond market shift from growth/flight-to-quality concerns to inflation concerns, with 10-year up 10bps after ISM data, but range-bound unless financial instability emerges.

rut

small caps... it's been a big winner for our clients... these are the times to be dollar cost averaging in... we think two three weeks from now all these areas will be up from where we are today He explicitly includes small caps as an area he is buying on dips and expects to be higher in 2-3 weeks, despite acknowledging it's 'taking a beating today.'

dxy

we're up a dollar again today. We're at 99 on the dollar... The dollar goes up and oil prices go up Knapp explicitly notes the dollar is up sharply ('up a dollar again'), links it to the oil price spike due to the US being a petrocurrency exporter, and describes the correlation as a current, exacerbating factor.

wti

when you see the spike in gas oil prices... they have a big problem The entire discussion is framed around a recent and ongoing spike in oil (and gas) prices due to geopolitical targeting in the Gulf, presenting it as a current, sharp increase.

metals

Gold is continuing to be an effective hedge in times of geopolitical volatility. Gold expected to perform well as a safe-haven asset amid conflict.

wti

Base case is what we're seeing playout right now, which is this introduction of new risk premium on politics into the oil price. This seven to eight dollar handle increase in the oil price overnight, not a spike to the 100 and above.

metals

Gold and gold miners... Gold is $35T asset, play on geopolitics, debasement, inflation, central bank incompetence. If way out is bailing out private credit, gold prices that in. Still long gold, plays via PHYS. Gold miners up 100%. Commodity trade here to stay. Geopolitics, inflation, central bank actions all supportive.

ndx

I would expect to see continued volatility on an intraday basis. While not giving a pure price direction, she explicitly forecasts continued intraday volatility. This is a 'volatile' directional call for the short term. Her emphasis on severe underlying weakness (avg member down >25%) supports a fragile, churning environment.

metals

The fact that gold's not making new highs on this... should be a wake-up call that... maybe the bull market has happened... Silver had a nasty, nasty reversal yesterday. Points to poor price action in precious metals despite the geopolitical catalyst, suggesting a pause or end to the bull move.

wti

energy was getting better regardless of this. And if we get any sell-the-news in energy or oil over the next couple of weeks, that's actually what you want to be buying Identifies energy as the clear market leadership that has been improving for months and should be bought on dips.

yields

if you look at the price action in the last couple days, It's bond yields up, particularly in Europe. Sees recent price action as signaling a return to an environment of rising yields.

wti

I would not fade this current spike... I would be careful fading it because it starts to become much more serious... this is going to be a structural repricing... the risks are to the upside. Geopolitical risks from Iranian proxies create protracted supply disruption risks; hoarding by China/India increases demand; OPEC capacity constraints limit supply response; two-supply-chain world requires higher inventories.

ndx

I think it's going to be a lot of volatility before we know how long this is going to go on. Volatility expectation tied to oil price shock uncertainty and its impact on inflation/Fed policy.

yields

Jablonski states oil price could be inflationary and 'perhaps curtail the amount of rates that the government will be able to do' – implying higher yields due to reduced rate cut expectations.

dxy

the dollar here strengthening with the spike in oil prices Traders dialing back Fed rate cut expectations due to inflation concerns

metals

Gold rose to the highest in a month... gold is up about 22% this year... up another 2.8% Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, stagflation environment favorable for gold, technical breakout patterns

ndx

The NASDAQ down about 1.1% here Risk-off sentiment from geopolitical tensions, hedge funds trimming long positions

wti

crude oil futures up 5% Geopolitical tensions driving oil higher, but reference to previous conflict where oil popped then collapsed suggests caution

yields

10-year Treasury yields are dipping below that 4%, 3.97% Flight to safety amid geopolitical tensions, despite inflation concerns

metals

Gold is reflecting that [uncertainty] and has reflected that over the last year, year and a half. Up. Gold is seen as a hedge against the sustained uncertainty that has been a market staple for 18 months, which the current conflict exacerbates.

yields

You start it off with the flight to quality and lower yields. And that quickly reversed course and now you're seeing higher yields and I think that's the right reaction. The war is inflationary (not disinflationary), adding to existing inflationary pressures from rising input prices. The bond market's initial flight-to-quality move has reversed as it prices in higher inflation.

wti

We're looking in the second half, we were bullish because basically the shale production can't be increasing the way it has, keeping up with global growth. That's why oil is up 37% this year. Geopolitical risks with Iran could further tighten supply, especially if US controls Iranian exports via Kharg Island. China's inventory building suggests anticipation of tighter market.

yields

We now have the lowest mortgage rates in over 3 years, they're under six percent. and then 10 UtreasureCarct the 4% level. And so that's very, very bullish. So as rates come down, it will cause the Fed to cut. Falling goods prices (deflationary) recognized by bond market as bullish, leading to lower yields. Expects Fed cuts to follow.

metals

gold geopolitical premium has a lot of risk of heading back lower as we had deeper into training this coming week. Gold is extremely stretched versus historical metrics (60-month moving average, vs crude oil), and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce its risk premium.

wti

I'm fully expecting, come Monday, Kudau [crude] will probably be lower. Expects OPEC+ coordinated production increase, Trump election motivation for lower energy prices, and post-invasion relief to pressure prices.

rut

I think this outperformance can last six to eight months. Refers to recent small-cap (Russell 2000) outperformance and believes it can continue for six to eight months.

wti

I think there's a good chance that we actually stay in the 70 to 75 range Sees oil contained in a range unless significant supply constraints emerge.

metals

maybe in even in a gold to go lower Gold, like crude, has seen a risk premium due to the conflict. His expectation of global relief and lower risk premiums applies to gold as a safe-haven asset.

wti

We should expect the premium and crude oil to be lower... I think risks are might be might see a little bit more relief. and we had lower as we had in New York's money open. Believes the significant risk premium (~$10/bbl for Brent) is already priced in for a potential supply disruption he views as unlikely. Expects relief unless there is a major, unexpected escalation.

yields

The path of least resistance seems to be towards lower yields... The concern seems to me towards low yields... the safe haven bid is going to come into the back end of the yield curve. Cites risk-off sentiment, geopolitical concerns, AI disruption fears, and market positioning (call/put skews) pointing to lower yields, despite acknowledging sticky inflation and a strong economy.

ndx

We've cut our long-term estimate on the multiple for the market from 22 to 20... We're probably in a kind of single digit return market here, not a double digit return market. Auth explicitly cuts valuation multiple for the market (which is heavily tech-weighted) and forecasts single-digit returns, implying downward pressure on NDX. He highlights Mag7 losing free cash flow premium and software facing margin pressure from AI competition, directly negative for tech-heavy NDX.

yields

Interest rate cut expectations are rising here as the 10-year note falls below 4%... June is going to be 51% and September is fully priced in. Explicitly states falling yields and rising rate cut expectations, with specific probabilities for upcoming Fed meetings.

ndx

Four themes driving market volatility this year and I think they'll continue Midterm election years historically see intra-year market volatility with average declines

wti

Geopolitical issues in Middle East are causing oil prices to rise Tensions in Middle East and concern about Strait of Hormuz impacting energy prices

yields

Fed will probably cut rates this year - call for two rate cuts in second half Weakening employment markets and productivity gains will give room to cut rates