wti

It's a bear market that's bounced much, much more likely to go down. And the key thing that might make it go down to that level by the end of the year. Fundamental oversupply (8-10 million barrels/day surplus) outweighs current geopolitical price spike.

dxy

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. In a crisis, the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand during geopolitical crisis provides short-term support, but longer-term deficit risks pose a threat.

yields

We know interest rates are going to be higher longer. Linked to inflationary pressures from the Iran war affecting fuel, fertilizer, and military spending.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

wti

Oil prices are coming down Attributed to potential Iran deal progress reducing geopolitical risk premium

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

ndx

Earnings, earnings, earnings, positive analyst revisions and the US is the oasis around the world. Bullish due to strong corporate earnings, positive analyst revisions, and US being preferred destination for global capital compared to other major economies.

metals

Bull case is like 81 to 86...within kind of the next few weeks...silver could get that kind of second leg higher into the 80s Based on constructive Iran talks leading to lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, with silver in structural deficit providing support.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

"$120 would be optimistic. In a physical market desperate for oil, $200 might be cheap" Reasoning is based on physical market dislocation if Iran conflict ceasefire fails, with a critical 2-4 week timeline. Confidence in shipping and agreements will be slow, preventing a quick return to pre-war prices.

wti

WTI crude oil jumping back above $100... May crude oil futures... up just about 8% here... The effective shutdown of the Strait drove energy prices sharply higher. The immediate catalyst is the geopolitical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The speaker frames this as a direct, sharp reaction to the news.

yields

reinforced those expectations that central banks may delay any kind of interest rate cut. The speaker directly links the energy price spike to expectations that central banks will delay rate cuts. Delaying cuts implies a 'higher for longer' stance, which is typically associated with upward pressure on yields, especially in the short term as the market reprices the timing of monetary policy.

ndx

Stock market is being lower... you're gonna have stock markets falling... Even the peak of the war, the S&P was down 4%. He directly links escalation to lower stock markets in the short term. However, he is overwhelmingly bullish on tech/AI long-term, calling it a 'secular boom' that will drive markets. The short-term 'cautious down' view is specific to the war escalation scenario.

wti

all price are going to be higher than otherwise... oil prices go to 150, 200... oil is at 120, 130, 140... oil can go towards 80, 80 plus. It's not going to go back to 60. Roubini's analysis is conditional on conflict scenarios. For de-escalation with Iranian control, he sees a sustained higher floor (~$80+). For full escalation, he explicitly forecasts prices reaching $120-$140+ in the short term (2-3 months). The direction is clearly up from pre-war levels in all scenarios, but the magnitude depends on policy.

yields

Bond yields being higher... bond yields higher. Explicitly stated as a consequence of the conflict escalation, due to higher inflation expectations and growth concerns.

wti

President Trump went on to announce a blockade of the straight-of-formers, spiking oil prices, of course this morning. The announced blockade will halt at least 2 million barrels a day of Iranian oil flowing through the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating an immediate supply shock.

wti

oil crashed 16% and then shot back over $100 Iran Strait toll crisis creating uncertainty; traders likely to sell off into weekend; different crude grades at varying prices.

wti

think prices would come down very quickly especially when it looks like it is safe to bring maritime traffic through the Gulf. Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to drop dramatically. Bolton argues that securing the Strait of Hormuz and allowing Gulf Arab oil (but not Iranian oil) to flow will quickly increase supply, reversing the war-driven price spike. He references a pre-conflict petroleum surplus.

wti

Simply the fact that the Gulf is open will cause prices to drop dramatically... think prices would come down very quickly especially when it looks like It is safe to bring a maritime traffic through the Gulf. His thesis is that the current high prices are due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed/unsafe. A successful U.S. military action to reopen it would restore the pre-crisis oil glut, leading to a rapid price decline.

yields

higher energy and higher input costs lead to higher inflation. So, ergo's the simple conclusion that yields should move up... Our view has been that we are in a more bullish structural environment for commodities, including oil. And so we believe the press for yields actually does remain on the upside... in the next three to six months, we will see more pressure build up to that effect. And I think that means for yields, the path is higher.

wti

We're going to stand much higher than we have been... Before the war, we were closer to 65. Right now, if Trump keeps on doing this things, we're going to be over 100. I think the pressure is going to be on him to throttle things back so it wouldn't surprise me if at the rest of the year we hang closer to 100 but below it. Expects sustained higher prices due to ongoing conflict and supply constraints, tempered by political pressure on Trump.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

oil plunged below $100 a barrel after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire Ceasefire agreement reduces geopolitical risk premium in oil markets

metals

"I'm getting pretty bullish on gold again." (Quinn); "Gold is becoming a really great diversifier." (Tyler) Both Quinn and Tyler are explicitly bullish on gold as a debasement hedge against market manipulation and currency weakness. Tyler cites strong fundamentals for gold miners (high margins, M&A activity). The context is a medium-term hedge against inflationary policies and dollar weakness.

wti

oil prices are high and that hurts the consumer... there's definitely a left tail where things can go really, really badly... there's also a right tail where things could go a lot better and oil prices could come down Markets pricing both escalation risk (higher prices) and settlement potential (lower prices), creating volatility. No explicit 'sharp up' forecast - rather acknowledgment of current high prices with potential for movement in either direction.

wti

We could very easily in the next 24 hours be in a very different price environment for both Brent and WTI... we could see major escalatory cycle beginning the next day or so. Explicitly states oil prices have 'a long way they could go up' and could be 'much higher' than $140 in an escalatory cycle, directly linking imminent military action to sharp price increases.

wti

It's difficult to imagine why [oil prices] wouldn't be higher. His analysis of extreme physical stress, tanker shortages, incremental daily shortages, and the potential for Iran to 'extract maximum pain' strongly supports a sharp upward move in the short term.

wti

We're at day 30 and we're already up 40-50%. Refers to the current oil shock's magnitude and duration relative to historical averages.

yields

Supply shocks create inflation pressures and that creates upward pressures on rates.

yields

not only seeing yields go up Nominal GDP (real growth + inflation) is rising due to fears of more inflation than growth slowdown, driving yields upward. Market has shifted from expecting rate cuts to considering potential hikes.

wti

If Houthis enter the war... strike the Yanbu refinery... there's a lot of room for oil to really really spike up high. Explicitly quantifies potential spike ($20-$40) and describes current severe supply constraints with no near-term relief.

wti

price is what continue going up. I'm talking about oil here. until we reach the level of demand destruction... we see prices going up until we hit that recession and then prices will decline again. Structural shortage of 8 mb/d after demand destruction; exhausted policy levers (SPR, sanctions waivers); market reacted to Trump's long-war speech with 5% immediate rise.

ndx

directional equity convictions are neutral now for U.S. equities Neutral stance on directional US equities while focusing on thematic opportunities.

wti

Shortage 10-12M bpd... Nothing stops prices rising until demand destruction... Oil prices up 5% after speech. Anas explicitly states shortage persists despite mitigations; Trump's speech confirms long war, escalating conflict; no policy tools left to suppress prices; market immediately reacted with 5% spike. Direction is sharply up in short term until demand destruction kicks in at higher price level.

metals

Host Sam Vadas reported aluminum stocks rallied 10%+ due to Middle East supply disruptions, with Strait of Hormuz blockage potentially impacting 10% of supply. This points to upward price pressure on industrial metals from ongoing supply shocks.

wti

Another month like this will be biggest energy shock the world has ever experienced. Historian's assessment based on scale of existing damage and potential for further supply disruption, implying sustained high prices.

metals

I think it matters being belonged a lot higher... I think we're just in a digestion period and we're probably going to be settling at these prices and then moving higher... This to me, it still is early evenings of a mining cycle... I think that a lot of technical analysts are missing the fundamental analysis behind Comrades... it's highly unlikely. We're at the end of this. Structural supply constraints, deglobalization/onshoring demand, low industry capex, and eventual move towards gold as a monetary asset all support a long-term secular bull market.

yields

So we're gonna have to force rates lower... I actually think that There is a very important macro trade... which is basically batting that rates are going to go up substantially lower... I do think it's an interesting, again, it's a trade... I think that's a very real possibility that we can see rates going substantially lower. High debt levels (interest payments to GDP ~4-6%) necessitate lower rates; the financial system (private equity, banks, tech) cannot withstand higher rates; government has tools (QE, yield curve control) to suppress rates despite inflation.

wti

If we continue this for another 6 to 8 weeks, the prices will go through the roof... I'll be looking at $200 oil. $150, $200 and maybe even more than $200. Based on physical supply disruption of 100M barrels/week not flowing, IEA releases insufficient, and immediate oil trading at $10-$15 premium showing tightness.

wti

If disruption persists, $150 per barrel is not the ceiling, it is the next milestone... Goldman Sachs now outlined scenarios that see oil spiking to 120, 140, and even $160 a barrel... oil may prove to be the safest place to be when the global shock hits. Thesis is based on stagflation (fewer rate cuts, firm yields), geopolitical disruption in Strait of Hormuz, and government hoarding of supply acting as a price multiplier. The call is for 2026, a medium-term horizon.

yields

slower growth colliding with persistent price pressure which forces markets to confront fewer rate cuts, firmer bond yields The stagflationary setup (slower growth + persistent inflation) logically leads to expectations of higher for longer rates and therefore higher bond yields. This is a core part of the macroeconomic thesis presented.

wti

That in today's measurement would be about $177 per barrel. That is where we're going if the straight is not opened. Argument is conditional on Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, leading to demand destruction. The $177 target is derived from a historical GDP-spend threshold (5.5%). Even if Strait opens, a permanent $10-20 political risk premium is introduced, and structural supply damage prevents a return to $60, implying a significantly higher equilibrium price.

wti

We are expecting for that paradigm shift in energy markets to occur. Brent prices go from like the 100-type levels per barrel to 150 per barrel in April. The base case scenario is shifting to the 'most bearish alternative scenario' due to the protracted conflict, indicating a near-term, sharp price increase is the firm's expectation.

yields

We've seen long-term interest rates rise by 25 basis points on the 10-year treasury... monetary authorities will suddenly have to hike. The stagflationary shock from the war (higher energy/food prices) combined with potential fiscal stimulus to buffer consumers will force monetary authorities to tighten policy to combat inflation.

wti

Markets should be preparing for protracted conflict. Her direct warning for markets to prepare for a long conflict, combined with analysis that Iran's Strait of Hormuz stance is a non-starter, explicitly indicates severe, sustained supply disruption risk and upward price pressure.

wti

World is losing 10-11 million barrels a day. It cannot be replaced... Getting through June would mean significantly higher prices through end of year. Strait of Hormuz closure is sustained supply shock with no quick replacement.

wti

We're now preparing for the oil price being at a much higher level for a much longer time. The base case is no longer a short-term spike but a protracted conflict with sustained supply disruptions.

yields

The move has been exaggerated by positioning and the change in narrative from central banks. Central banks are responding to new, severe information with a hawkish narrative and actual hikes (Australia, Iceland), preparing for more, leading to a bear flattening of the curve.

wti

Physical crude in Middle East going for over $150 a barrel Murti emphasizes the severe physical supply disruption and that futures prices understate the real price shock. The closure forces extreme physical premiums, indicating strong upward pressure.

wti

The price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as a deal is done. Prediction is conditional on a successful deal with Iran, which he believes is imminent. Also states desire to 'lubricate' the system with Iranian oil.

ndx

With that comes a technology trade... when you're going through tough times, particularly from a macro perspective, tech is relatively macro-agnostic asset class... that's where investors will be focusing on in moments of difficulty. Sees US tech as a relative safe haven and beneficiary of a flight to quality/resilience within the US market during the shock.

wti

We would certainly assume at this point in a time that oil prices... will stay fairly elevated through the rest of the year even if the conflict comes to an end in the next few days. The shift in dynamic where Iran, not the US, can call the shots means supply disruption risks are more persistent.

wti

chances are that as this continue to drag on, then the... a medium to longer-term oil price expectations will start to change as well. Explicitly states that the prevailing expectation of a quick oil price drop is wrong and that medium-term price expectations will rise due to the protracted conflict and supply damage.

wti

The size of this oil shock is unprecedented. The Strait of Hormuz has not been closed before. 20% of oil production. That is very material. Describing the shock as 'unprecedented' and 'very material' directly references the cause of the sharp price increase.

wti

You get long, buckle your seat belt and hang on for the ride... the upside here, I would argue, is substantial. Again, we want to be long... We haven't even really started the rebalancing process yet. Argues the current ~$100 paper price is massively disconnected from physical markets (~$130-$170). Uses the mirror of COVID's -$37 rebalancing price to imply a need for very high prices to destroy demand. Points to physical prices (Oman $173, jet fuel $220-$230) as a leading indicator. Sees no spare capacity and a supply shock equal to COVID's demand shock.

wti

In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Powell explicitly confirms a substantial, near-term rise in oil prices due to Middle East supply disruptions, characterizing it as a shock that will push up inflation.

yields

Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation... We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Powell explicitly states higher energy prices are inflationary and the Fed is watching the data closely. With inflation already elevated and risks to the upside, the implicit direction is for potential upward pressure on yields if the inflation shock persists, though the Fed is not pre-committing.

wti

substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East

yields

Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. Fed maintaining current policy rate suggests yields will remain stable in near term; no indication of imminent rate changes despite inflation concerns.

wti

Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. The Fed explicitly cites a 'substantial rise in oil prices' as a current factor, attributing it to Middle East supply disruptions. This is a direct observation of a price increase that has already occurred and is impacting near-term inflation expectations.

yields

The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of this year and 3.1% at the end of next year. Projected policy rate cuts imply lower short-term yields. The Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down suggests a dovish tilt, which would put downward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve over the medium term.

wti

Right now, what's happening in the Middle East is one or two order of magnitude larger... the price of brent basically doubled... the largest supply event in the oil and gas market that I have seen in my career. Explicitly characterizes the situation as an unprecedented supply shock causing a sharp, sustained price increase.

wti

Here we wake up within 12 months. They're paying $177 in Dubai today for oil. the highest price in the history of the world. Argues the Iran conflict is a structural, long-term impediment (unlike Venezuela), making high prices persistent. The physical market is extremely tight, and futures curves don't incentivize new supply.

metals

Metals since 2020 are just a straight line going up... I want to own metal, I want to own gold Part of regime change to asset-heavy economy, cost structure rising, demand from EM diversification away from dollar assets

wti

Get long, buckle your seatbelt, hang on for the ride... I want to own oil Regime change structural shift, supply chain disruptions lasting months, hoarding adding demand, no policy solution, SPR inadequate

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude none. Massive supply chain disruptions (18M barrels/day), ineffective policy responses, and emerging hoarding behavior creating additional demand pressure.

wti

oil prices, I'm afraid, are going to continue marching in the triple digit range... we can go well into the mid-hundred dollar range and beyond Based on a 30-day base case for Strait of Hormuz disruption, rendering IEA stock releases and other measures insufficient. Direction is 'sharp up' due to phrases 'marching', 'mid-hundred dollar range and beyond', and context of a 20M bpd supply shock.

wti

Prices will keep going up until we see demand destruction. If this is going to last with us for a long time. They will keep going up until we see demand destruction. Historic supply disruption (~20M bpd), mitigation efforts insufficient, panic hoarding, insurance market paralysis. Crisis extends beyond oil to fertilizers/helium/LNG.

wti

There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude, none. Strategic reserve releases are too slow (200 days for 400M barrels) and minuscule compared to the ~18M bpd disruption; broader supply chain damage will take months to unwind.

ndx

US stocks are going to have a pretty tough time. US equities dragged into center of crisis due to oil shock, stagflation fears, and global sell-off.

wti

oil prices now are $100... and they're quite likely going to stay there for some time as well. Middle East war disruption with no quick resolution in sight.

yields

treasury markets climbing aggressively. Driven by jump in energy prices, inflation fears, and removal of Fed rate cut expectations.