dxy

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. In a crisis, the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand during geopolitical crisis provides short-term support, but longer-term deficit risks pose a threat.

yields

We know interest rates are going to be higher longer. Linked to inflationary pressures from the Iran war affecting fuel, fertilizer, and military spending.

ndx

We are long the equity market... I like equities... orient it a bit more towards the equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. Cites powerful tech earnings (e.g., semis up 97%), extraordinary technicals (buybacks > IPOs), and a productivity revolution favoring big caps.

yields

My sense is that 10-year note will drift lower over the, you know, through this year. Expects Fed cuts, sees initiatives (Fed balance sheet, fiscal) to contain long-end rates and stimulate housing.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

wti

We did increase our Brent oil price target. We think that will average about $100 by the time we get to the end of June and by the time we get to the end of the year at $90. The forecast is for a rise to $100, but the tone is measured, noting the market has priced in a Strait reopening and that the consumer can absorb the increase. The year-end target of $90 is lower than the mid-year peak, indicating a cautious upward path.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

ndx

we just had a brand-new all-time high. Refers to stock market (implied S&P/NDX) hitting all-time highs, presenting it as a current fact and testament to economic strength.

wti

I think your oil price will go down to lower than what it was before. Ties lower oil prices directly to a successful Iran deal being announced 'fairly soon'.

wti

Oil prices are coming down Attributed to potential Iran deal progress reducing geopolitical risk premium

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

ndx

Earnings, earnings, earnings, positive analyst revisions and the US is the oasis around the world. Bullish due to strong corporate earnings, positive analyst revisions, and US being preferred destination for global capital compared to other major economies.

metals

Bull case is like 81 to 86...within kind of the next few weeks...silver could get that kind of second leg higher into the 80s Based on constructive Iran talks leading to lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, with silver in structural deficit providing support.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

WTI crude oil jumping back above $100... May crude oil futures... up just about 8% here... The effective shutdown of the Strait drove energy prices sharply higher. The immediate catalyst is the geopolitical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The speaker frames this as a direct, sharp reaction to the news.

yields

reinforced those expectations that central banks may delay any kind of interest rate cut. The speaker directly links the energy price spike to expectations that central banks will delay rate cuts. Delaying cuts implies a 'higher for longer' stance, which is typically associated with upward pressure on yields, especially in the short term as the market reprices the timing of monetary policy.

ndx

stock markets falling Geopolitical risk, higher yields, falling confidence, and growth slowdown create negative environment for equities.

wti

higher oil prices Iran conflict and control of Hormuz creates supply disruption risks that drive oil prices higher.

yields

bond yields higher Geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will push bond yields upward.

ndx

Stock market is being lower... you're gonna have stock markets falling... Even the peak of the war, the S&P was down 4%. He directly links escalation to lower stock markets in the short term. However, he is overwhelmingly bullish on tech/AI long-term, calling it a 'secular boom' that will drive markets. The short-term 'cautious down' view is specific to the war escalation scenario.

wti

all price are going to be higher than otherwise... oil prices go to 150, 200... oil is at 120, 130, 140... oil can go towards 80, 80 plus. It's not going to go back to 60. Roubini's analysis is conditional on conflict scenarios. For de-escalation with Iranian control, he sees a sustained higher floor (~$80+). For full escalation, he explicitly forecasts prices reaching $120-$140+ in the short term (2-3 months). The direction is clearly up from pre-war levels in all scenarios, but the magnitude depends on policy.

yields

Bond yields being higher... bond yields higher. Explicitly stated as a consequence of the conflict escalation, due to higher inflation expectations and growth concerns.

wti

oil crashed 16% and then shot back over $100 Iran Strait toll crisis creating uncertainty; traders likely to sell off into weekend; different crude grades at varying prices.

yields

yields have risen sharply from where they ended February CPI driven by fuel costs created an 'inflation-on' period, not risk-off. The Iran conflict has trumped all other factors, putting upward pressure on yields.

metals

I continue to think the gold to oil ratio is going to finish this cycle way, way higher, way higher, over 100, over 200, maybe, maybe as high as 400 barrels an ounce. Sees gold as a hedge against counterparty/credit risk if supply chains break. The ceasefire was seen as a 'Suez moment' potentially leading to a gold-settled multi-currency system, which is 'good for gold'.

wti

I think oil is going a lot below 60. Part of his thesis that the gold-to-oil ratio will soar to 100-400. Expects near-term volatility due to war, but long-term direction is down.

wti

It's kind of inevitable that's where we're going to end up... it's reasonable when you look at those long dated futures going out to December of this year to see lower prices. Believes a deal will be struck to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, returning oil flows to a post-war equilibrium, which futures markets are already pricing.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

Potentially closer to 80, 75, 80 by the end of the year... you're going to see a risk premium of 10 to 15 dollars by the end of the year. He explicitly forecasts a year-end price of $75-80, which is below current ~$98, implying a downward move. However, he emphasizes a slow process and a persistent $10-15 risk premium, indicating the decline will be cautious and not a crash. The term 'cautious up' is interpreted here as 'cautiously moving up to a lower level from an even higher spike', but the directional intent is a moderated decline from current war-premium highs.

wti

Oil prices not back to $60 but potentially closer to $75-80 by year-end. Even with ongoing negotiation/ceasefire, risk premium of $10-15 through end of year.

wti

So the price is going to have to go up and it's going to have to stay up... I think we're probably gonna have to see much higher prices Arithmetic of global oil shortage (~13M bpd) necessitates a sharp price increase to ration demand. $100+ may not be enough if the supply disruption is protracted.

yields

I do think you're going to see inflation expectations kick in in interest rates and they're going to move higher. Based on thesis that a protracted Middle East risk premium will be inflationary, increasing nominal GDP. Current yield rise is from real yields; inflation expectations will follow if situation persists.

wti

oil prices yesterday, they went down 20%, but they stabilized 50% higher than they were 12 months ago. The description is of a sharp drop followed by stabilization at a much higher level than a year ago. This paints a picture of high volatility but a recent move to a plateau, suggesting a near-term sideways or rangebound dynamic rather than a continued directional move down.

wti

Energy prices are just higher than they were before the recent events... energy prices overall... is going to be higher as a result. Infrastructure damage, Strait of Hormuz closure, and ongoing conflict risks.

wti

our baseline case is that we see average oil prices on a Brent measure that slide down to around $85 in the third quarter and then further down towards $80 by year end Baseline assumes decline from current levels but acknowledges recent volatility with oil trading around $110 per barrel and downside risk scenarios where prices could remain elevated.

yields

we've seen pricing of fewer rate cuts by the Fed lead to upward pressure on long term rates. We've seen higher inflation expectations push higher long term rates. And we've also seen questions around fiscal sustainability and fed influence pressure long term rates higher. Inflation remains above 2% target with further inflationary pressures expected, Fed likely on hold, creating upward pressure on yields despite geopolitical conflict that would normally push yields down.

ndx

I really see a sideways market Expects 2-3 months of sideways movement until geopolitical resolution improves. Long-term bullish on AI and economy, but near-term upside limited.

wti

oil is still in the upper 90s Cites current price level ($80-100 vs. past $60) as a persistent problem, impacting corporate earnings (e.g., Delta's fuel costs). No expectation of near-term decline mentioned.

ndx

the bull market that started in October of 2022 has further to go... US tech has been all of those end up leading Explicitly states tech leadership in continuing bull market.

wti

we're looking at a Brent price that ultimately lands in the mid to high 80s, WTI the low to mid 80s Describes as structural change taking years, indicating long-term upward shift from pre-conflict levels.

yields

the fall in yields here telling you that that is an endorsement of higher multiple equities References current yield drop as positive for equities, implying near-term downward pressure.

ndx

equities will boom... much higher equities in the next 24 hours. Geopolitical shocks tend to create buying opportunities; compares to 1990-91 Kuwait invasion where a 20% sell-off was completely reversed.

wti

You would expect the big falls in oil prices to continue... much cheaper oil If Iran agrees to ceasefire and reopens Strait of Hormuz, it releases its economic leverage, allowing oil stocks to be rebuilt.

wti

The nearby contracts are making new lifetime highs... they keep making new highs. Imminent oil supply shortage due to 35-36 day shipping halt from Persian Gulf; failure of ceasefire would extend disruption.

yields

That should put the Fed on hold for a long time... We might be talking about them hiking rates later this year if there is some kind of persistent inflation. 0.9% March CPI (3%+ YoY) driven by oil prices forces Fed to stay on hold or consider hikes, implying higher yields.

wti

If Strait closed through April, oil 130-150. Based on physical shortage evidence from products (jet fuel, diesel). Conflict extends ? non-linear price moves possible.

yields

Yields have gone up this year. Only probably about 15 basis points, but it's significant. We've seen yields go far more for other countries... Attributed to broader issues like widening fiscal deficits and high elevated oil prices that remain persistent.

ndx

Four scenarios with extreme outcomes ranging from 1000-point rally/all-time highs to significant downside, with all playing out in next few hours, indicates extreme short-term volatility.

wti

Oil is not gonna come down all the way back to 60 right away. There was damage. There is gonna be still some risk premium in the market. Even in best case scenario with a deal, physical damage and ongoing geopolitical risk will maintain elevated oil prices.

yields

I don't think we're gonna see the 10 year drop below four. In that case, I don't see the Fed dropping rates... I think we have to put on hold any cuts. Fiscal expansion from defense spending ($200B+ request) and inflationary pressures from credit expansion will keep yields elevated.

dxy

Nothing protects you other than long cash and dollar... that will spell trouble indeed really for the entire asset spectrum except for the greenback.

yields

this time bond yields have risen Due to term premium increase from mounting debt/deficit concerns, not inflation expectations; different from past crises where yields typically fell.

wti

oil prices would be higher for longer Physical market tightness from Strait closure, production shut-ins, storage constraints, and infrastructure damage will sustain higher prices until ceasefire and recovery

yields

The risk is that we will continue to see inflation stay higher for longer, and because of that rates are likely to also stay higher for longer. His thesis of strong economic momentum from AI, industrial policy, and tax cuts, combined with the oil shock adding to inflation, leads to an explicit view that yields will move higher and stay elevated.

wti

It's difficult to imagine why [oil prices] wouldn't be higher. His analysis of extreme physical stress, tanker shortages, incremental daily shortages, and the potential for Iran to 'extract maximum pain' strongly supports a sharp upward move in the short term.

yields

Long-term interest rates... have been range bound. Cites stability since late 2022 at ~4.25% and stable long-term inflation expectations. Market sees Fed dragging feet, not hiking.

wti

If oil stays meaningfully above a hundred dollars for an extended period of time... a prolonged war with meaningfully escalated oil prices... there is going to be a tail where refined products and oil remains elevated because production has slowed in the region. Geopolitical tension in Middle East (Iran war, Straits of Hormuz closure) could disrupt supply and keep prices elevated even after conflict ends due to production lag effects.

wti

Base case for oil prices in the fourth quarter is about $20 higher than before the war Analyst provides specific price forecast with Q4 WTI in mid-70s vs pre-war below $60, citing inventory hits and security premium needs.

metals

My prediction is that [silver is] back over $50 headed to 100 again. It's never going to go back under 50... I think we've seen the bottom of both gold and silver moving up... there is a major bull market going on there... copper has a real potential... uranium... more room to grow. Era of permanent inflation, increasing industrial demand (AI, data centers, alternative energy), and restricted supply (secular decline in mine discovery) support higher prices for gold, silver, copper, and uranium.

ndx

I'm still very bullish. I think these are opportunities to buy. I expect the SpaceX to go to premium... probably get too high too fast and pull back and that might be another opportunity to load up. Technology is real and driving a 'roaring 20s', but markets can get frothy. Recent pullback due to war has created buying opportunities in tech stocks.

yields

Cutting interest rates are off the table. Because inflation is going to be worse... How can you cut interest rates when inflation's going up? That doesn't make sense. Believes March CPI will be 'substantially higher' and there is a strong correlation between inflation and interest rates. The Fed cannot cut with rising inflation.

yields

rates probably need to go higher... that should suck out some liquidity from the market... you're going to see much higher rates... rates are going higher... It's higher from here. Persistent inflation above target (well above 2%) due to high oil prices and strong economic growth necessitates higher policy rates, which will push bond yields up. A Fed cutting mistake would be punished by bond vigilantes, driving yields 'well north of 5%'.

wti

Give it a few more weeks and certainly we will get there. Either the conflict ends soon or prices need to move much higher. I mean... I am surprised that we are not much higher. Disruption size is huge (10% of global supply loss), buffers are temporary, and market hasn't fully priced prolonged crisis yet.

wti

Maybe closer to the $80 per barrel mark seems more likely if we truly are getting de-escalation and the strait beginning to open up. Strategist provides a specific target ($80) contingent on de-escalation, indicating a belief that prices will decline from current ~$105 but remain elevated with a geopolitical risk premium, not returning to pre-conflict levels.

metals

nudged our base case outlook down from north of 6,000 to the high 5,000s, that's still 20% upside from here Gold as diversifier for structural risks; factors accelerating; maintains bullish target despite recent pullback.

wti

move to a higher average of call it $80 a barrel over the next three to six months Assumes de-escalation, sees $80 as higher average but still benign—implies rangebound around that level, not a sharp move.

yields

I think it's appropriate over the course of this year to just get back to neutral... we're about a percentage point above that level right now. Governor explicitly advocates for rate cuts to move from restrictive to neutral policy over the course of the year, suggesting downward pressure on yields.

ndx

My third point is... Up till one month ago, I was completely sanguine on... S&P and Markets in General... and my view has one-eightied... What is about to happen to society and to the market as a result of AI?... if this thesis is correct that within 3 years or a few years, 15% of knowledge workers have lost their jobs... they're going to start hitting up their 401k's... if Mike Green is correct that when that happens There's nobody there to catch the falling knife... That's when it's really time to panic. Block's bearish view on the NDX/S&P is not based on current valuations but on a future catalyst: AI-induced white-collar job losses leading to mass 401k redemptions, which reverse the passive buying flows that have driven the market's technical parabolic rise. He expects this to unfold in a 3-5 year ('medium') timeframe, leading to a severe downturn.

wti

you're talking about 85 to 100 The interviewee discusses oil price levels (85-100) in the context of the Middle East crisis and its impact, implying an expectation for prices to remain at or move to that elevated range in the near term.

wti

We're at day 30 and we're already up 40-50%. Refers to the current oil shock's magnitude and duration relative to historical averages.

yields

Supply shocks create inflation pressures and that creates upward pressures on rates.

metals

Gold... will prove to be a good asset to hold in a world where we see geopolistics is not going away... We still think there's a structural story to mean the gold will appreciate over the next 12 months. Gold seen as hedge against persistent geopolitics and deficit spending; currently down 10% from peaks.

wti

if you see oil at around $8,000, $800,000, level... we think that the global economy will still grow... The risks scenario to us... is that you see oil move more than $140 per bowel Base case assumes oil in $80-$100 range supporting growth; risk scenario >$140 leads to recession.

yields

Curve steepening more likely to play out... longer-term curve steepening is a potential consequence when it comes back to repricing, not just inflation. Deficit concerns may re-emerge; prefers 3-6 year maturities due to front-end opportunity and longer-term steepening risks.

metals

Our expectation is that the price is probably going to continue to rise given the state of the world Geopolitical tensions (U.S./Israel-Iran conflict), deterioration in global cooperation, economic uncertainty, and recent price patterns showing recovery from selloffs.