ndx

We are long the equity market... I like equities... orient it a bit more towards the equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. Cites powerful tech earnings (e.g., semis up 97%), extraordinary technicals (buybacks > IPOs), and a productivity revolution favoring big caps.

yields

My sense is that 10-year note will drift lower over the, you know, through this year. Expects Fed cuts, sees initiatives (Fed balance sheet, fiscal) to contain long-end rates and stimulate housing.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

wti

We did increase our Brent oil price target. We think that will average about $100 by the time we get to the end of June and by the time we get to the end of the year at $90. The forecast is for a rise to $100, but the tone is measured, noting the market has priced in a Strait reopening and that the consumer can absorb the increase. The year-end target of $90 is lower than the mid-year peak, indicating a cautious upward path.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

ndx

stock markets falling Geopolitical risk, higher yields, falling confidence, and growth slowdown create negative environment for equities.

wti

higher oil prices Iran conflict and control of Hormuz creates supply disruption risks that drive oil prices higher.

yields

bond yields higher Geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will push bond yields upward.

yields

yields have risen sharply from where they ended February CPI driven by fuel costs created an 'inflation-on' period, not risk-off. The Iran conflict has trumped all other factors, putting upward pressure on yields.

metals

I continue to think the gold to oil ratio is going to finish this cycle way, way higher, way higher, over 100, over 200, maybe, maybe as high as 400 barrels an ounce. Sees gold as a hedge against counterparty/credit risk if supply chains break. The ceasefire was seen as a 'Suez moment' potentially leading to a gold-settled multi-currency system, which is 'good for gold'.

wti

I think oil is going a lot below 60. Part of his thesis that the gold-to-oil ratio will soar to 100-400. Expects near-term volatility due to war, but long-term direction is down.

wti

It's kind of inevitable that's where we're going to end up... it's reasonable when you look at those long dated futures going out to December of this year to see lower prices. Believes a deal will be struck to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, returning oil flows to a post-war equilibrium, which futures markets are already pricing.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

So the price is going to have to go up and it's going to have to stay up... I think we're probably gonna have to see much higher prices Arithmetic of global oil shortage (~13M bpd) necessitates a sharp price increase to ration demand. $100+ may not be enough if the supply disruption is protracted.

yields

I do think you're going to see inflation expectations kick in in interest rates and they're going to move higher. Based on thesis that a protracted Middle East risk premium will be inflationary, increasing nominal GDP. Current yield rise is from real yields; inflation expectations will follow if situation persists.

wti

oil prices yesterday, they went down 20%, but they stabilized 50% higher than they were 12 months ago. The description is of a sharp drop followed by stabilization at a much higher level than a year ago. This paints a picture of high volatility but a recent move to a plateau, suggesting a near-term sideways or rangebound dynamic rather than a continued directional move down.

wti

Energy prices are just higher than they were before the recent events... energy prices overall... is going to be higher as a result. Infrastructure damage, Strait of Hormuz closure, and ongoing conflict risks.

ndx

the bull market that started in October of 2022 has further to go... US tech has been all of those end up leading Explicitly states tech leadership in continuing bull market.

wti

we're looking at a Brent price that ultimately lands in the mid to high 80s, WTI the low to mid 80s Describes as structural change taking years, indicating long-term upward shift from pre-conflict levels.

yields

the fall in yields here telling you that that is an endorsement of higher multiple equities References current yield drop as positive for equities, implying near-term downward pressure.

wti

The nearby contracts are making new lifetime highs... they keep making new highs. Imminent oil supply shortage due to 35-36 day shipping halt from Persian Gulf; failure of ceasefire would extend disruption.

yields

That should put the Fed on hold for a long time... We might be talking about them hiking rates later this year if there is some kind of persistent inflation. 0.9% March CPI (3%+ YoY) driven by oil prices forces Fed to stay on hold or consider hikes, implying higher yields.

wti

If Strait closed through April, oil 130-150. Based on physical shortage evidence from products (jet fuel, diesel). Conflict extends ? non-linear price moves possible.

yields

Yields have gone up this year. Only probably about 15 basis points, but it's significant. We've seen yields go far more for other countries... Attributed to broader issues like widening fiscal deficits and high elevated oil prices that remain persistent.

dxy

Nothing protects you other than long cash and dollar... that will spell trouble indeed really for the entire asset spectrum except for the greenback.

wti

oil prices would be higher for longer Physical market tightness from Strait closure, production shut-ins, storage constraints, and infrastructure damage will sustain higher prices until ceasefire and recovery

yields

The risk is that we will continue to see inflation stay higher for longer, and because of that rates are likely to also stay higher for longer. His thesis of strong economic momentum from AI, industrial policy, and tax cuts, combined with the oil shock adding to inflation, leads to an explicit view that yields will move higher and stay elevated.

yields

Long-term interest rates... have been range bound. Cites stability since late 2022 at ~4.25% and stable long-term inflation expectations. Market sees Fed dragging feet, not hiking.

wti

If oil stays meaningfully above a hundred dollars for an extended period of time... a prolonged war with meaningfully escalated oil prices... there is going to be a tail where refined products and oil remains elevated because production has slowed in the region. Geopolitical tension in Middle East (Iran war, Straits of Hormuz closure) could disrupt supply and keep prices elevated even after conflict ends due to production lag effects.

wti

Base case for oil prices in the fourth quarter is about $20 higher than before the war Analyst provides specific price forecast with Q4 WTI in mid-70s vs pre-war below $60, citing inventory hits and security premium needs.

wti

Give it a few more weeks and certainly we will get there. Either the conflict ends soon or prices need to move much higher. I mean... I am surprised that we are not much higher. Disruption size is huge (10% of global supply loss), buffers are temporary, and market hasn't fully priced prolonged crisis yet.

metals

nudged our base case outlook down from north of 6,000 to the high 5,000s, that's still 20% upside from here Gold as diversifier for structural risks; factors accelerating; maintains bullish target despite recent pullback.

wti

move to a higher average of call it $80 a barrel over the next three to six months Assumes de-escalation, sees $80 as higher average but still benign—implies rangebound around that level, not a sharp move.

wti

you're talking about 85 to 100 The interviewee discusses oil price levels (85-100) in the context of the Middle East crisis and its impact, implying an expectation for prices to remain at or move to that elevated range in the near term.

wti

We're at day 30 and we're already up 40-50%. Refers to the current oil shock's magnitude and duration relative to historical averages.

yields

Supply shocks create inflation pressures and that creates upward pressures on rates.

metals

Gold... will prove to be a good asset to hold in a world where we see geopolistics is not going away... We still think there's a structural story to mean the gold will appreciate over the next 12 months. Gold seen as hedge against persistent geopolitics and deficit spending; currently down 10% from peaks.

wti

if you see oil at around $8,000, $800,000, level... we think that the global economy will still grow... The risks scenario to us... is that you see oil move more than $140 per bowel Base case assumes oil in $80-$100 range supporting growth; risk scenario >$140 leads to recession.

yields

Curve steepening more likely to play out... longer-term curve steepening is a potential consequence when it comes back to repricing, not just inflation. Deficit concerns may re-emerge; prefers 3-6 year maturities due to front-end opportunity and longer-term steepening risks.

metals

Our expectation is that the price is probably going to continue to rise given the state of the world Geopolitical tensions (U.S./Israel-Iran conflict), deterioration in global cooperation, economic uncertainty, and recent price patterns showing recovery from selloffs.

yields

not only seeing yields go up Nominal GDP (real growth + inflation) is rising due to fears of more inflation than growth slowdown, driving yields upward. Market has shifted from expecting rate cuts to considering potential hikes.

ndx

directional equity convictions are neutral now for U.S. equities Neutral stance on directional US equities while focusing on thematic opportunities.

metals

Host Sam Vadas reported aluminum stocks rallied 10%+ due to Middle East supply disruptions, with Strait of Hormuz blockage potentially impacting 10% of supply. This points to upward price pressure on industrial metals from ongoing supply shocks.

dxy

The way I see the dollar appreciating right now is I think we'll get euro dollar down to 1.12. We talk about 1.10 if we get to July and onwards. Forecast is conditional on war duration driving a terms of trade shock, with a clear downward path for EUR/USD (dollar up).

metals

Aluminum was an example over the weekend that has resulted in 6% increase in price. Notes attacks on infrastructure beyond oil, listing aluminum, fertilizers, helium. Implies broad commodity price pressure from supply disruptions.

ndx

I would not be going into the market and buying the index at this juncture. Equity mindset is still that disruptions are transitory, which is a mispricing. Sequential shocks (energy, inflation, demand) create a negative macro backdrop.

wti

Massive differential between the physical price of oil right now in Asia 140 and 150 and futures. At some point you need convergence to happen. Discusses war-driven tipping points moving from disruption to damage, creating longer shocks. References $200 barrel oil as an outlier scenario moving closer. Physical shortages are a concern.

yields

you've been... not only seeing yields go up... we're going to continue to see rates move up Nominal GDP (growth + inflation) rising due to inflation outpacing growth slowdown; compares to 2022 when yields rose 3 percentage points; global central banks turning hawkish

wti

Even ourselves with a hundred dollar oil... you're going to write to a hundred and hang you out there. The analysis is conducted with $100 oil as the baseline, indicating it is the current/persistent price. The discussion of demand destruction at $120-$150 suggests the current move up has already occurred and is sustained, not necessarily forecasting a further sharp near-term rise from current levels.

ndx

Equities are following oil prices lower in the price shock. He attributes the immediate 'downdraft' partly to weekend risk reduction and expects a bounce if nothing bad happens, indicating a short-term down move within a volatile/rangebound context.

wti

higher oil prices... We have to adjust to higher oil prices The core driver of the current 'price shock'. Rising oil is the initial cause of higher rates and equity market pressure.

yields

interest rates are rising... look at interest rates, interest rates are rising Linked to the price shock from higher oil prices. The observed steepening (2y down, 10y up) indicates the market is starting to price in longer-term concerns, but his base case remains the adjustment to higher rates from the oil shock.

wti

We are expecting for that paradigm shift in energy markets to occur. Brent prices go from like the 100-type levels per barrel to 150 per barrel in April. The base case scenario is shifting to the 'most bearish alternative scenario' due to the protracted conflict, indicating a near-term, sharp price increase is the firm's expectation.

metals

you're seeing central banks start to sell gold. So now that's pulling back. Attributes the pullback partly to the unwinding of a prior parabolic move.

wti

WTI hasn't shown any sign of slowing down. I mean, right now we're at the highs of the day. Cites Middle East conflict (bombing) and rising energy prices as a key market driver, implying continued upward pressure.

yields

you're looking at bond yields continuing to go up. Links yield rise to inflation fears stemming from oil prices and the market not pricing in Fed rate cuts.

yields

We've seen long-term interest rates rise by 25 basis points on the 10-year treasury... monetary authorities will suddenly have to hike. The stagflationary shock from the war (higher energy/food prices) combined with potential fiscal stimulus to buffer consumers will force monetary authorities to tighten policy to combat inflation.

yields

That does bring the risk that there is some upside pressure on rates. That's in the front of the long end... also the level of yields in rates is also under upward pressure because of the supply being so significant. Massive $14T supply of investment-grade bonds (Treasury refinancing + deficit + corporate) hitting the market, combined with inflation pressures from tariffs and oil.

metals

I think gold ends the year at least with a six in front of it, maybe a seven... gold's a buy here, not a sell... When they have to print money to keep sovereign debt from defaulting into an energy spike... That's what we're going to be facing in the next two, three, four weeks... That is like a certainty. Thesis hinges on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, causing a sovereign debt crisis that forces global central banks to print money into an energy shock, making gold the necessary neutral reserve asset.

wti

We're gonna have... 50 years of security in the Middle East that will keep down oil prices... we will probably have more stability more broadly relative to where we were just a few months ago. Expects Middle East resolution leading to more stability and GCC connections with US/Europe, which should keep oil prices down long-term.

yields

That does bring the risk that there is some upside pressure on rates, both in the front and the long end... the level of yields in rates is also under upward pressure because of this supply being so significant. Massive $14T investment-grade bond supply (50% of GDP) combined with inflation pressures creates technical upward pressure on yields.

wti

market putting weight on higher oil prices Oil price shock from geopolitical conflict is central to inflation and policy discussion, creating upward pressure.

ndx

Bullish on AI as most exciting technology in decades, prefers equity financing to participate in upside. Notes significant sidelined cash in equity markets causing rallies despite bad news, and his firm has built cash to deploy later. Overall positioning is temporarily defensive but looking to buy on the other side of current stress.

yields

"I don't think the Fed's gonna hike... I think they're gonna cut rates." "I think the Fed needs to cut interest rates now." "I think the equilibrium funds rate is closer to 3%. I think you need to get there..." "that premium should come out and we should lower that rate." Argues high rates are ineffective against supply-shock inflation and disproportionately harm vulnerable groups and government debt burden, while big tech capex is less sensitive. Advocates for Fed to use balance sheet to stabilize long end of curve.

metals

You see it even in asset classes like gold, where you'd had the parabolic move, then the selling kicked in, you're kind of pressing that on the downside. Cites gold as example of asset class where parabolic move was followed by selling, driven by short-term trader positioning pressing moves, indicating volatility.

metals

Positioning get very, very stretched, which is why I think in this risk off moment we didn't see gold perform as well. Gold positioning is stretched/crowded, reducing its effectiveness as hedge; recent poor performance in risk-off moment suggests downward pressure.

dxy

We have upgraded our view on the dollar. We like to play the dollar versus the euro. The upgrade in view is based on US energy independence and a persistent political risk premium. The mention of a specific level (1.10 vs. 1.15) suggests a view for moderate strength.

metals

we think about it as a pause in our views... it's prudent to pause on that view higher. The shift to 'neutral' from a bullish view, citing the reassertion of old drivers (real yields, dollar) which are typically negative for gold, implies a cautious or slightly negative near-term outlook.

ndx

we continue to remain positive on equities for this year The positive view is based on a strong earnings trajectory, with tech leading but broader market participation.

dxy

We are still leaning more towards fading the dollar strength eventually... I'm not sure that [the dollar as a stagflation hedge] will be the case this time around. Argues that unlike 2022, all central banks are fighting inflation now, reducing the Fed's unique credibility advantage. While the dollar has benefited from energy independence, the view is to eventually fade its strength.

metals

Gold has sold off a lot as well... some of that investor positioning is unwinding. Attributes recent gold weakness to a strong dollar and investor positioning unwinding to raise liquidity. Sees it as a tactical move, potentially an opportunity for longer-term investors, but the near-term direction discussed is down.

wti

Our team is now expecting something in the low 80s on Brent. He cites a supply shock from the conflict causing disruption, leading to 'lasting damage' and a higher settled price. He explicitly upgrades the team's forecast.

wti

We now expect a somewhat higher oil price of Brent $80 by year end. Due to damage from Hormuz supply shock and structural factors (faster SPR builds, security premium).

metals

We looked at trimming back that gold hedge. Anytime your hedge rallies about 100% you've got to think about defining that hedge a little bit more.

metals

I really think for the long haul I still want to be in commodities and I still want to have a gold position... at this level I think it's a very good opportunity to add to gold and add to commodities. Views current price (~$4000) as a good entry point after a pullback from ~$5500, aligning with his original target for the year.

yields

Meanwhile, the spreads on fixed income have definitely been on the march... high yield spreads have risen by something like 60 basis points, maybe at the wide 70 basis points... all corporate credit is definitely widening. Explicit commentary on widening credit spreads indicates upward pressure on yields for risky debt.

ndx

Overweight US equities recommendation, positive view on AI-driven productivity boom (1990s parallel), and structural advantages of the US economy all imply a positive outlook for US growth stocks represented by NDX.

wti

Acknowledges near-term spike ('first month contracts almost doubled') but argues the market sees it as temporary ('12 month is only up 10 to 15 dollars'). This implies a short-term rise but not a sustained bull market.

yields

Our belief for now is that you'll probably going to get another two cuts this year... We expect him to at least try and deliver one rate cut before the midterm elections. The call for rate cuts is based on addressing a slow-growth job market and the view that AI will be disinflationary (1990s parallel). The Fed has room to cut as the economy does fine at 3% inflation.

yields

the appropriate response for interest rates to go higher... central banks might be to high rates... We raised interest rates. And this is what we could wind up seeing now. Nominal GDP (growth+inflation) is going up, driven more by inflation than growth reduction, justifying higher rates. Parallel to early-80s inflation fight.

wti

the price of oil might go to $130 or $150 in that very adverse scenario Scenarios based on length of Strait of Hormuz disruption: 21 days -> $110, 30 days -> $130, 60 days -> $150.