metals

We like base metals actually in terms of aluminum and copper, given the continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Bullish on industrial/base metals due to structural investment themes.

ndx

Bullish S&P 500 target (7700) is driven by AI/innovation productivity thesis, which disproportionately benefits tech-heavy NDX. Expects market broadening but core premise is tech-driven productivity.

metals

Gold (analog) going up on these four, five month charts... I think we're going to break back above it [$5,000]... I think 6,000 is more realistic than 4,000. Positioned as the winning side of the 'analog vs software' pair trade, with materials/metals mining cited as a group that's 'doing just fine' and 'working'.

ndx

The NASDAQ, for example, peaked on October 29th and has been... dead money to slightly down ever since. Described as 'ice cold' and part of the 'software' side of the analog vs software pair trade that is rolling over.

rut

Pull up a chart of the Russell 2000, which is the small cap index, things are doing just fine. Contradicts the perception of market ugliness and aligns with his view of a 'big broad bull market'.

yields

In the long term I would be a little bit cautious about this rally in the 10 year, particularly as we get down to 4%. He is commenting on the current rally, expressing caution about its sustainability at these levels, implying a near-term downward direction for yields is overdone.

yields

I think that there's probably more upside with longer term yields Factors like higher Japanese yields, tariff concerns, and debt/deficit loads put a floor on yields and prevent them from going much lower, suggesting upward pressure on longer-term yields.

ndx

This is a market... defined by three words: volatility, dispersion... you can see lot more dispersion and fragmentation Transition from AI hype to reality, market for lemons theory causing overshoots, need for bottom-up stock picking rather than sector-wide buying

yields

Yeah, I think we'll see it going back towards four, four and a half... So I think we are in a range for 4 to 450, with the average being closer to 450 than it is to four Administration worried about mortgage affordability may lead to yield curve control

yields

if potential growth is higher, the equilibrium real long rate and also the real short rate has to be higher... once you have a growth of 3% the equilibrium real rate has to be at least 3% Roubini's core thesis is that AI-driven productivity will raise potential GDP growth to ~4%. He explicitly links this to a higher equilibrium real interest rate, implying upward pressure on nominal yields. He argues against cuts, seeing risk of overheating.

yields

We have two cuts for the rest of the year, to 3.25%. Explicit forecast for two BOE rate cuts implies lower short-term UK gilt yields. The view is conditional on data not weakening further.

metals

$5000 isn't an unreasonable target... Gold has structural tailwinds. Explicitly mentions a $5000 target for gold, citing structural drivers like central bank buying and debt monetization, while acknowledging volatility.

ndx

I think we might be in for a little bit of a range bound choppy market with regard to some of those areas of the marketplace. Refers specifically to areas impacted by AI disruption/software sell-off. The 'choppy, rangebound' view is driven by 'sell first, ask questions later' dynamic and lack of clarity on top-line revenues until analysts potentially catch down to price action.

metals

It's a much more choppy path but still a climb higher for gold in particular. Cites structural central bank demand as a persistent tailwind, but acknowledges near-term volatility from speculation. Does not explicitly say 'down' in the short term; the core thesis is for a continued climb.

dxy

dollar next trade at 96.96 Dollar mentioned in context of other currencies moving, with rate cut expectations potentially weighing on dollar.

metals

Gold is up about 17% year to date... gold silver ratio sits at 65 to 1... probably gonna see a continued upward movement as traders are going more into the gold market with the stagflation type of narrative playing out. Gold outperforming with stagflation narrative, but silver rangebound and struggling with ETF outflows - mixed picture for metals complex.

rut

Best performers were the Russell 2000 and also the gold market Outperformance linked to lower yields and stagflation narrative benefiting small caps.

wti

energy which makes up about 6% of CPI sitting at 62.88 up 13 ticks Mentioned as component of CPI with recent uptick, part of stagflation watchlist but no explicit directional call.

yields

10-year Treasury yields... down at 4.05%. It's been declining significantly. Soft inflation data supporting rate cut expectations, yield curve flattening indicating stagflationary environment.

dxy

Fundamentals rates differentials would point to a firmer dollar... It was relatively short lived after Liberation Day and then did return more to where a model would suggest... question is... will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least sit with that rangebound dollar.

yields

We wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. Expects only one Fed cut, implying yields may drift lower but not sharply, given still-strong labor market and inflation seasonality.

yields

We don't really think this trend is going to continue to see the 10-year yield move meaningfully lower, say below 4%, maybe to get down to that 3-3-4% area... all of those factors should keep yields elevated. Near-term reaction is down (4.06%), but medium-term view is rangebound/sideways due to: 1) No expected recession/slowdown, 2) Inflation still elevated, 3) Debt supply concerns, 4) Global yield competition.

metals

"I think the risk is that it's going to roll over." (on industrial metals); "I think gold's run most of its course and it's just very, it's too risky to be long at here"; "I think this is going to be a down year for silver"; "I still view it as a prudent short." (on silver) Thesis is based on: 1) High correlation with a potentially peaking S&P 500. 2) Prices are historically stretched (aluminum >3000, gold vs. 60-mo MA, silver at record ratios). 3) Demand concerns from China (deflation, speculation crackdowns). 4) The universal commodity rule: 'up too much' leads to a shift down.

dxy

Dollar has been falling... diversification away from the US... president is all in favor of a weaker dollar... opens the door to a softer dollar.

yields

If core inflation is running around 2.5%, that's basically at the Fed's target. They can reduce policy rates from a slightly restrictive stance. Hollenhorst expects disinflation to continue, giving the Fed room to cut rates, which would put downward pressure on yields over the medium term.

dxy

Fundamentals, rate differentials would point to a firmer dollar from where we are now. Question right now is, are we seeing a fundamental shift in terms of how global investors allocate? Or will it return to fundamentals which would point to a firmer or at least let's say a rangebound dollar versus a weaker dollar from here.

yields

the 10-year yield has come down for sure Statement made in context of softer CPI data causing a positive market turnaround.

dxy

Dollar has been falling over the last year or so after decade long rally. What you're seeing is investors writ large start to move into other markets that are doing better. It seems as if the president is all in favor of a weaker dollar, and that sends a certain signal to the market. Along with all the geopolitical risks, it just opens a door to a softer dollar.

yields

I still think that we can see 3.5% in the 10-year later on in the year. Expects four Fed cuts starting in June, back-end loaded, due to more anticipatory Fed stance under Waller.

dxy

That could also contribute to further dollar strength. Reasoning provided: Strong US economy, sticky inflation from tariffs, Fed likely to stay put, all contributing to dollar strength.

dxy

the dollar may still be on a weakening path Part of three themes for 2026; dollar weakness provides tailwind for Asia assets

yields

We've been in this very narrow range, 375 to 4 and a quarter for a while. I think that range is fine. Fundamentals don't argue for much higher rates; if labor market stays stable, yields remain in current range; only economic weakness would drive yields lower.

dxy

Dollar index at 96.95 and a half just ever so slightly higher Described as 'ever so slightly higher' after previous peak, indicating minimal movement.

metals

Gold futures tacking on about a half a percent. Silver futures up about two percent Explicitly stated gains in both gold and silver futures in overnight session.

wti

WTI crude oil futures at 62-35 done about 50 cents Explicitly stated down about 50 cents in current session.

metals

the FOMO over the last two months has been anywhere but stocks. It's been in gold and silver and you see what's happened in the gold and silver in the last several weeks. Describes recent FOMO-driven surge in metals, indicating upward price action has already occurred and is characterizing recent market behavior.

yields

how incredibly sedate U.S. 10-year yields have been when the rest of the world's yields have been exploding higher for months and months now Expresses surprise at lack of movement in US yields compared to global trend, implying expectation of continued calm/sideways action in near term.

dxy

You could see a big pullback in the dollar index. Conditional on CPI coming at or below expectations tomorrow.

metals

Describes gold facing resistance and silver with elevated volatility, ETF flows declining, and market becoming more of FOMO day trading affair with algorithms cutting positions.

wti

If there's no geopolitical event that occurs or if there's an agreement with Iran, you'll probably see that futures on crude oil come back down and test that 60 level. Due to supply glut despite current geopolitical tensions.

yields

You could also see those 10-year Treasury yields slip from about 4.2% back down to the key lows of the range here right around 4.11%. Conditional on CPI coming at or below expectations tomorrow.

metals

We think so... There is a strong push... every government wants to take advantage of that 'just in case' trend... they're just trying to push the price higher. Cites government stockpiling (e.g., US Project Vault), supply restrictions (Indonesia nickel quotas), and strong price action in copper and aluminum.

wti

We still expect... for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent. Fundamentals are weak with a 2 million bpd surplus; current strength is geopolitical. OPEC will bring back supply if price stays above $70.

yields

yields

The 10-year yield is now higher on that Strong jobs data with lower unemployment, higher wages, and increased labor participation suggests higher interest rates and pushes back Fed rate cut expectations

dxy

Now a weak dollar is part of the story. It's added just over 200 of the 700 basis points of outperformance.

metals

'$10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold'; 'gold is going to run the deficits...'; 'gold over long-term treasuries until the dollar is appropriately priced relative to gold' Gold is framed as the solution to the global sovereign debt bubble and the mechanism to settle US trade deficits. The price targets are orders of magnitude above current levels, indicating a 'sharp up' long-term view.

ndx

Warns of a 'whoosh down' for assets globally, potentially led by Bitcoin, in the first half of the year, linked to Japanese bond market contagion. This implies broad risk-off including tech/NDX. Also notes stocks will go up in dollars but down in gold terms over the cycle.

wti

we are likely to see a short... but temporary. brief spike in oil prices Described as the 'more likely scenario' of 'managed escalation', with the spike being temporary before market adaptation.

yields

That's why you see that 10-year-old taking up. and those are. Interst rate cuts sliding back. Strong jobs report with elevated wage growth pushes back Fed rate cut expectations, causing bond yields to rise.

dxy

they drive the dollar index lower Weak data fuels rate cuts, which weakens dollar; dollar is continuing its sell-off.

metals

We've got gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper all higher on the day. Supported by Fed easing expectations from weak data; silver up 6.5%; gold could break higher to 5450.

wti

you're also seeing crude oil prices tick up. Perhaps we were seeing some of the geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East that's helped supporting it. Rising due to geopolitical tensions, but gold bulls would prefer lower oil to help CPI and Fed easing, suggesting the move is fragile or not fundamentally strong for gold.

yields

they drive yields lower Weak economic data fuels rate cut expectations, which push yields down.

yields

A Fed-Treasury accord where we talk about potentially less Fed buying at the long end, all of that is a higher yield. For me, it still is a duration neutral and potentially steeper curve type of discussion. His thesis is based on a regime change and a shift in Fed/Treasury dynamics reducing demand for long-dated Treasuries.

metals

Materials is one sector that we really like. We think that there is still a lot of upside... Metals are playing a very important role. Linked to upgraded global growth outlook for 2026, which benefits materials sector.

dxy

I think people will see more dollar downside in the short term. Believes the dollar stays under pressure due to stagflationary data dynamic and yield curve steepening. Also views dollar weakness as the longer-term sustainable trend.

ndx

I am worried that equities have a big move downside in the next couple of weeks. Cites the rotation in tech stocks and the broader dynamic not being great for stocks/risk assets as reasons for concern.

ndx

the fact we haven't set a high in the NASDAQ 100 uh since October Joe Mazzola explicitly states the Nasdaq 100 has not made a new high since October, indicating a lack of upward momentum. His focus on rotation into other areas (software, equal-weight) further supports a view of sideways or rangebound action for the NDX itself, as money moves out of the largest constituents.

dxy

In the US, we are likely to see rate cuts later in the year that provides for a cyclical environment that is translating into a little bit more weakness of the dollar. Distinguishes this as cyclical weakness, not debasement, and forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22 over 12 months.

metals

Materials is one sector that we really like. We think that there is still a lot of upside... Metals are playing a very important role. Links positive view to upgraded global growth outlook and the commodities cycle.

dxy

It's the setup where that large breakdown of the dollar index along with yields and gold volatility, that's what could really ignite the rally. Linked to Fed easing and gold rally setup; suggests dollar weakness as catalyst for metals move.

metals

I see a scenario where we hit that [gold $6,000]. It's the continued central bank buying, the private investor ETF flows... that's what could really ignite the rally. Fed easing with rate cuts, breakdown in dollar index and yields, structural drivers of central bank buying and ETF flows.

yields

The steeper trade is still pretty crowded... it's going to continue in fits and starts. When it gets very crowded and there's some catalyst for people to get out of it, you're going to see this jerk back like you saw today.

dxy

Asia should benefit from structural weakness of US dollar as well.

ndx

as overall transformative technology we don't think AI is a bubble... to unlock AI's revolutionary productivity potential we still have a long way to go. The view is fundamentally bullish on the AI-driven transformation, which underpins the NDX, but cautions about froth in the 'Magnificent Seven' conduit, advocating for diversification within the theme.

yields

at a longer end of the curve, the fiscal concerns remains very pertinent. And we have a curve steepening trade as one of our focal point for as allocation this year.

metals

Metals and mining up 25%... All of the old economy is substantially under invested. Copper back at $13k indicates structural shortage. Hyperscaler investment in data centers requires copper for grid, driving demand. Part of broader 'revenge of the old economy' rotation.

wti

Lots of upside here. Argues no real glut, markets structurally short and underinvested, geopolitical risk and hoarding behavior, policy-driven demand will keep markets tight.

yields

March cut has been our best case for a while now, but certainly last week's meeting was very much supportive of that. De Courcel explicitly states BNP's expectation for a BoE rate cut in March, which would put downward pressure on short-term UK yields.

dxy

should not get carried away by short term variations of the exchange rate of the dollar... I don't see a change in the role of the dollar in any time soon. Acknowledges dollar goes up and down, but its structural dominance is unchallenged. This implies no strong directional view, but stability in its role, translating to a rangebound/stable medium-term outlook for the index itself.

metals

All these markets are structurally short. ...we're back above $13,000 a ton again, which is an indication that this market is structurally short. ...Metals and mining is up 25%. Part of the broader 'old economy' supercycle thesis. Copper cited as example of structural shortage. Demand from AI infrastructure (grids, transformers) will create massive pull.

ndx

Nasdaq is down 9%. ...it's a rotation out of the new economy tech or asset light into the old economy... We gotta be rotating capital out of the new economy into the old economy. Explicitly states Nasdaq is down as part of a capital rotation. Framed as a structural shift from asset-light tech to asset-heavy commodities, implying continued relative or absolute weakness.

wti

I think there's a lot of upside here. ...these markets...are substantially underinvested. ...policy driven demand that will likely continue to keep these markets tight. Dismisses glut narrative, points to inventory draws, unwind of large short, structural underinvestment, and geopolitical/hoarding demand as drivers for higher prices.

yields

we have not seen the long end of the curve move significantly. We haven't seen bond volatility increase materially either. So for now, people seem pretty comfortable.

dxy

look at the downward move in the u.s. dollar... down two-thirds of a percent to start the day Attributed to Japanese election causing yen rally. Notes lower dollar is 'not the worse scenario' for US stocks as it helps multinationals.