ndx

Our target's 7800, that's the base case for 2026... we're seeing a broadening out in the earnings story, and we should see a broadening out in the equity story as a result of that. Based on rolling recovery from policy changes, investment cycle strength, and tremendous earnings revision breadth supporting higher equity prices despite valuation concerns.

yields

We're likely going to see, therefore, rates stay a little bit higher for longer. They're going to come down, but they're going to stay higher for longer than what we've seen historically. The forecast is based on inflation peaking mid-next year but remaining above the Fed's target, leading to a 'higher for longer' rate environment.

metals

this is even more positive for gold rather than crypto... the proper... hedge... is probably much more in precious metals rather than crypto Relative preference over crypto due to lower volatility and regulatory concerns; framed as hedge, not outright bullish call.

ndx

that really should mean all clear for a year end rally... Absolutely 100% [risk-on] Positioning signals in buy territory, Fed supportive, dip is non-fundamental.

ndx

Everyone gets how this year is going to end. I know people want a different narrative. I just hope they can get it. Josh Brown's entire argument centers on Mag-7 (heavily weighted in NDX) continuing to lead into year-end based on valuation (Meta 22x PE, NVIDIA 24x PE), liquidity, and momentum evidence (86% of XLK names above 10-day MA).

yields

That could make investors nervous... and that would probably steepen the yield curve. If they push the terminal rate even lower... we just steepen the yield curve and we get inflation expectations lifting long term yields. Jones argues that dovish Fed policy under new leadership, without corresponding economic weakness or declining inflation, will lead to higher inflation expectations and thus higher long-term yields (yield curve steepening).

ndx

Big tech in the AI trade, that's probably gonna be up anywhere from 20 to 25 percent... AI revolution stocks... up 20% of minimum Based on 2026 outlook, AI revolution just starting, deals accelerating from hyperscalers, beginning of monetization phase

ndx

I think we can trade higher into the end of the year and close at new highs. Hogan cites positive seasonality for December, expected rate cuts, strong earnings growth, and attractive valuations for Mag 6 tech stocks (which dominate NDX) as reasons for near-term upside.

yields

rates to come down in the US to around 3% by the middle of next year Expected decline in interest rates coupled with economic growth and dollar moderation supports risk assets

metals

We still have a now look that's this pretty positive on the metals Acknowledges metals will be volatile too but maintains positive outlook as part of rotation strategy

ndx

I think the market looks pretty good, at least for the next four or five months Seasonally strong period, Fed cutting rates, earnings increasing, productivity and margins increasing

yields

most likely a Fed cut in December... corporate bond rates have come down Fed funds futures showing 86% chance of cut, comments from Fed governors suggest easing

ndx

AI capex bubble will continue to re-inflate enthusiastically into 2026, we will see much higher stock prices in year-end Bullish framework with liquidity, global growth holding up, Fed easing pressure, though near-term volatility expected

yields

the next move for yields is probably higher from here After pricing in dovish Fed expectations, sees potential for hawkish cut in December and uncertainty about January follow-through

dxy

Dollar kind of anchoring around this 100 level and dropping a bit below it Linked to Fed rate cut expectations and gold's advance due to weaker dollar

metals

Platinum has risen about 75% here, silver up 70% year-to-date, gold up 55% year-to-date with continued bullish momentum Driven by Chinese demand, supply disruptions, new futures contracts, and structural support from central banks and ETFs

yields

10-year Treasury yields dropped from about 4.14% back down to 4% here Based on Fed rate cut expectations and observed price action

dxy

dollar's rally for the last two months is coming to an end, and we expect the dollar to weaken from here Fed cuts, dovish FOMC shift, European fiscal agenda, and central bank divergence all support dollar weakness

yields

We might start to see that push to 2.75 to 2.50 Labor market weakening despite rates at 3% anchor level, expressing via curve flattening positions

ndx

there's two more years at least we have in this tech bull market. You're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build. There is truly a fourth industrial revolution

metals

nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 26 with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 26 Central bank diversification post-Russia sanctions, Fed rate cuts boosting ETF inflows, potential private sector diversification in small gold market relative to bond markets

rut

Russell 2000 is an indicator of small caps is up something like close to 10% this year... when it was likely that the Fed was going to cut, that's when you saw small caps take off Sees continued opportunity in small caps due to Fed cuts, valuation, and AI innovation in niche markets

rut

Small caps catching up in 2026... small cap is catching up to the trend... has actually tended to outperform larger cap stocks Strong bullish case for small caps based on fiscal stimulus benefits, tax advantages, and historical growth patterns

ndx

tech bull market has another two years, risk on not just into year end but as we go into 2026 AI revolution continuing, multiple tech companies positioned for growth, S&P 7000 target

yields

The rates on the longer end of the maturity spectrum, those 10s, 20s and 30s, we think those yield stay firm or even rise a little bit Expectation of steady to higher long-term rates supports financials thesis

ndx

it continues to only be 10:30 PM that AI party that goes to 4 AM Views AI adoption as early stage with massive growth ahead, sees $3-4 trillion spending coming, enterprise adoption only at 3%, compares to 1996 not 1999 bubble

yields

we will be at 3% by late winter and on our way down towards 2 to 2 and a half by the end of next year Fed is behind the curve, should be at neutral already given falling inflation and rising unemployment

dxy

But dollar is going to weaken and then we're going to have an inflation problem all over again Weaker dollar would contribute to renewed inflation pressures if Fed policy is perceived as too dovish

yields

Well then the long end is gonna speak up. If long rates are going to go higher If Fed cuts rates below inflation level, market will push long-term rates higher to compensate

rut

Areas like health care and small cap look particularly interesting. They've both shown some strength. They both have the potential to gain in the years ahead

ndx

tech's still being under pressure... people are still very negative on tech. People obviously rotate it into more value-focused sectors like health care, like defensive Valuation concerns over past three weeks driving rotation from tech to value/defensive sectors, option markets showing bearish skew on tech

ndx

Equities probably shows the most potential for upside. I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7 Expects market broadening beyond tech megacaps to drive equity gains in 2026, with economic recovery and reduced headwinds supporting overall market upside

ndx

they're going to continue to power the market higher Based on Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance as largest cap stock, with AI theme dominating market focus

ndx

I believe this is a tech bull market goes on another two years... I think we have two more years left in this tech bull market Based on enterprise demand acceleration, government support, early stage of AI adoption (top of third inning), and transformative nature of AI technology across multiple sectors

metals

Gold futures surged 2% here on Monday with some follow-through in the overnight session... gold up about 55% this year Driven by Fed rate cut expectations, central bank buying, and ETF inflows; momentum behind interest rate cuts driving prices higher

yields

10-year Treasury yields down at 4.04%... big decline Friday and Monday with big sell-offs here Fed rate cut expectations driving yields lower; markets pricing 80.7% chance of December cut

metals

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in aside from fixed income, precious metals remain in portfolios due to uncertainty and risk concerns

ndx

December could be an up month Based on strong fundamentals, rate cut expectations, earnings growth, and AI productivity gains, but tempered by major downside risks and uncertainty

ndx

We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7800 driven by strong earnings growth. We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle AI investment driving productivity gains, broadening earnings cycle, and 7800 S&P target imply continued upward trajectory for tech-heavy indices