wti

Our base case is that we do see oil prices continue to gradually move lower, call it $80 a barrel over the next three to six months. The interviewee provides a specific price target ($80) and timeframe (3-6 months), framing it as a 'base case' that is a 'good environment for growth'. This indicates a directional view, but the use of 'gradually' and the discussion of higher-price scenarios suggests caution, not a sharp move.

dxy

people are looking to diversify from the dollar as a safe haven... this is creating appetite for European assets and for certain emerging market assets. Explicit statement that the dollar is not the all-weather hedge it was and that diversification away from it is occurring, which implies downward pressure on the DXY as capital flows elsewhere.

ndx

We are long the equity market... I like equities... orient it a bit more towards the equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. Cites powerful tech earnings (e.g., semis up 97%), extraordinary technicals (buybacks > IPOs), and a productivity revolution favoring big caps.

yields

My sense is that 10-year note will drift lower over the, you know, through this year. Expects Fed cuts, sees initiatives (Fed balance sheet, fiscal) to contain long-end rates and stimulate housing.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

ndx

Entire commentary is bullish on tech (semis with 97% earnings growth) and 'big cap stocks,' citing powerful earnings, extraordinary technicals, and a productivity/AI-driven moat. The positive view on the primary drivers of the equity market and scarcity dynamics strongly implies upward direction for NDX constituents.

yields

longer term yields in our view are likely to stay elevated Driven by geopolitical uncertainty (sustaining term premium) and higher oil prices lifting inflation expectations. The Fed being on hold supports this view for the medium term.

yields

The 10-year at 4.30% needs to be higher. The old rule of thumb is the 10-year should equal nominal GDP, which easily has a 5 in front of it. The yield curve has to go higher due to inflation premiums and growth themes. Belief that nominal GDP is above 5%, implying yields are too low relative to economic fundamentals.

wti

it can take up to two years to see the big chunk of the production coming back to the before war levels... we should be prepared to read a volatile energy markets for some time to come Production recovery will be gradual, not immediate, suggesting supply constraints will keep prices elevated for extended period.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

wti

We did increase our Brent oil price target. We think that will average about $100 by the time we get to the end of June and by the time we get to the end of the year at $90. The forecast is for a rise to $100, but the tone is measured, noting the market has priced in a Strait reopening and that the consumer can absorb the increase. The year-end target of $90 is lower than the mid-year peak, indicating a cautious upward path.

yields

In a couple of months... things are just too good... the terminal rate may be having to move more towards 4%... that of course would put pressure across all the asset classes. He explicitly warns that strong data (earnings, inflation, employment) in the coming months could force a reassessment of the terminal Fed rate higher.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

dxy

Dollar downside has more room to run but EUR/USD at 1.20 seems stretched; unwind depends on ECB hike decisions and growth implications.

ndx

US tech up 13% month-to-date; TSMC earnings very positive; AI/tech trade filling void; helping indices reach pre-conflict levels and go beyond.

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

dxy

we actually see over the longer to a slightly softer dollar.

ndx

We upgraded U.S. equities... from neutral to overweight... The first reason is if we look at... talking, stopping and starting again is really concrete evidence of the economic incentives to stop. The war at the same time, if you look at earnings getting upgraded... they really paint a picture of valuation looking quite attractive.

metals

I do believe that Gold could see an upper triangle in forward. Gold is now seen as a strategic diversification asset for central banks, not just a hedge, suggesting sustained but measured demand.

wti

I would expect still a lot of pressure on the energy market and it's the rivet it's going forward. Strait of Hormuz remains closed, causing ongoing supply disruption.

wti

the futures market at least are predicting that oil doesn't go all the way back down to 60 or 65. So when we do come back down, we probably don't go all the way back down to where we were pre-conflict here. Persian Gulf shutdowns creating multi-layer shortages in chemical supply chain, with restart timeline extending through Q3 or year-end, supporting elevated oil prices as feedstock costs remain high.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

yields

Still sees prospects for a rate cut here in the U.S. later this year.

metals

this is gonna be a theme for the next few years that's actually gonna be pretty bullish for the complex Gatt cites structural factors: aluminium supply disruption lasting ~12 months, electricity constraints limiting quick supply response, and rising government stockpiling adding demand premium.

wti

if anything, that downward slope is usually a bullish signal for commodities rather than a bearish one Gatt interprets crude backwardation as bullish short-term signal, indicating strong immediate demand and need to draw down inventories.

ndx

Yes, I think tech is going higher. Based on free cash flow inflection for hyperscalers, AI compute demand growth, and valuation/positioning reset creating upside risk.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

commodities team ... they think the lowest it's going to be is about 85. Market discounting $70, but commodity analysis sees floor at $85, implying upward pressure and inflation pulse.

wti

Impact will be felt... not just in price of goods... but also... availability of such goods. and we worry that a continuation of this conflict. will have that impact global.

ndx

stock markets falling Geopolitical risk, higher yields, falling confidence, and growth slowdown create negative environment for equities.

wti

higher oil prices Iran conflict and control of Hormuz creates supply disruption risks that drive oil prices higher.

yields

bond yields higher Geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will push bond yields upward.

wti

If this blockade takes months to work, that forecast [oil prices moving back down to 70-80 range by year-end] is not going to be true. Altman explicitly counters the market consensus for lower oil prices by year-end, implying sustained higher prices over a medium-term horizon due to a protracted blockade.

yields

If Fed cuts aggressively, bond vigilantes would push 10-year yields well north of 5% Contopoulos believes Fed shouldn't cut into inflationary environment, and any aggressive cutting would be punished by markets driving yields higher.

yields

If the Fed cuts interest rates... You go well north of 5% on the 10 year because all of a sudden, now you're juicing inflation... That causes a higher rate environment... Contopoulos believes the Fed should not and likely will not cut rates. His warning about a policy mistake (cutting) explicitly forecasts much higher Treasury yields ('well north of 5%') as the market's punitive response to juicing inflation.

ndx

This might bring out pretty significant sell tickets. And I'm really worried about that. He directly links the oil price spike and geopolitical escalation to a likely sharp sell-off in the stock market.

wti

Oil will open sharply higher... We're going to probably see decent amount of energy prices rally on Sunday night and Monday. The announcement of a US blockade is an escalation that perpetuates the supply disruption from the Strait closure.

yields

yields have risen sharply from where they ended February CPI driven by fuel costs created an 'inflation-on' period, not risk-off. The Iran conflict has trumped all other factors, putting upward pressure on yields.

wti

if you do get a resolution, you get energy prices falling Wilding explicitly mentions energy prices falling as part of resolution scenario in Middle East.

metals

I continue to think the gold to oil ratio is going to finish this cycle way, way higher, way higher, over 100, over 200, maybe, maybe as high as 400 barrels an ounce. Sees gold as a hedge against counterparty/credit risk if supply chains break. The ceasefire was seen as a 'Suez moment' potentially leading to a gold-settled multi-currency system, which is 'good for gold'.

wti

I think oil is going a lot below 60. Part of his thesis that the gold-to-oil ratio will soar to 100-400. Expects near-term volatility due to war, but long-term direction is down.

yields

We do think that longer term yields are going to continue to remain elevated. Due to elevated term premium, government spending requiring larger issuance, and Middle East conflict keeping oil prices high.

wti

It's kind of inevitable that's where we're going to end up... it's reasonable when you look at those long dated futures going out to December of this year to see lower prices. Believes a deal will be struck to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, returning oil flows to a post-war equilibrium, which futures markets are already pricing.

dxy

We can't forget that US policy uncertainty in 2025 particularly has been a creed driver of U.S.D. weakness... there is a bit of a push and pull, but bottom line and if as long you have US policy uncertainty. There will be a little bit of that sort of downward pressure on the dollar we think.

yields

For us we are still expecting three Fed cuts to resume at the second half of the year and beyond.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

So the price is going to have to go up and it's going to have to stay up... I think we're probably gonna have to see much higher prices Arithmetic of global oil shortage (~13M bpd) necessitates a sharp price increase to ration demand. $100+ may not be enough if the supply disruption is protracted.

yields

I do think you're going to see inflation expectations kick in in interest rates and they're going to move higher. Based on thesis that a protracted Middle East risk premium will be inflationary, increasing nominal GDP. Current yield rise is from real yields; inflation expectations will follow if situation persists.

wti

oil prices yesterday, they went down 20%, but they stabilized 50% higher than they were 12 months ago. The description is of a sharp drop followed by stabilization at a much higher level than a year ago. This paints a picture of high volatility but a recent move to a plateau, suggesting a near-term sideways or rangebound dynamic rather than a continued directional move down.

wti

The entire analysis is framed as a response to a question about an 'increase in oil prices,' and Bianco's inflationary thesis is predicated on that increase continuing to exert upward pressure on prices.

yields

probably drifting higher interest rates Higher inflation (March CPI 0.9%) without a commensurate real economic decline leads to higher nominal GDP, which pressures interest rates upward.

wti

the price is going to have to go up and it's going to have to stay up 13M barrel/day supply shortage requires price increases to reduce demand; infrastructure solutions will take years

yields

I think it could change substantially over the next couple of weeks... Then I do think you're going to see inflation expectations kick in in interest rates and they're going to move higher. The move higher is conditional on the market shifting its view from seeing the conflict as temporary to seeing the associated risk premium (threats to shipping/oil) as more permanent.

wti

Energy prices are just higher than they were before the recent events... energy prices overall... is going to be higher as a result. Infrastructure damage, Strait of Hormuz closure, and ongoing conflict risks.

yields

Difficult for the committee to lower rates until they are more certain that core inflation is going to be drifting down and I don't think that'll be until the fall. Persistent inflation from oil shock means Fed will keep rates higher for longer, with at least 7 FOMC members hawkish and not wanting cuts this year.

dxy

the US dollar as a safe haven still reign supreme In risk-off environments (which he suggests are still a threat), the USD is the only asset that works, implying upward pressure.

metals

everything else from gold from precious metals to equities to credit to EM everything sells off in light of rates selling off Explicitly states gold/precious metals sell off in a stagflationary/higher rates environment, which he identifies as the key risk.

rut

The first place we go with this is downcap into US small midcap... the first place we look is down into small mid-cap. Identifies small/mid-caps as the primary beneficiary of the 'broadening trade' and notes today's rally in small caps is responsive to the ceasefire news.

wti

As you're seeing energy markets come off, as you're seeing the energy shock diminishing Ceasefire has caused immediate sharp drop in oil prices; references oil price decline and reduced energy shock multiple times.

ndx

the bull market that started in October of 2022 has further to go... US tech has been all of those end up leading Explicitly states tech leadership in continuing bull market.

wti

we're looking at a Brent price that ultimately lands in the mid to high 80s, WTI the low to mid 80s Describes as structural change taking years, indicating long-term upward shift from pre-conflict levels.

yields

the fall in yields here telling you that that is an endorsement of higher multiple equities References current yield drop as positive for equities, implying near-term downward pressure.

wti

Energy is taking a big hit. You know, crude oil prices are down double digit percentages. Linked directly to the 'fast unwind of geopolitical risk' from the ceasefire. Energy sector is seeing outflows while other sectors see inflows.

wti

The fact we've now opened up that pathway... we can take it with some confidence. If we did get back to pre-strike levels, oil prices have further to fall. The ceasefire enables de-escalation. Markets were pricing a temporary shock (6-month futures at $82 vs. spot at $110), implying spot prices should decline towards that forward curve.

wti

The nearby contracts are making new lifetime highs... they keep making new highs. Imminent oil supply shortage due to 35-36 day shipping halt from Persian Gulf; failure of ceasefire would extend disruption.

yields

That should put the Fed on hold for a long time... We might be talking about them hiking rates later this year if there is some kind of persistent inflation. 0.9% March CPI (3%+ YoY) driven by oil prices forces Fed to stay on hold or consider hikes, implying higher yields.

wti

oil prices are high and that hurts the consumer Karen explicitly states high oil prices as a first-order effect of the conflict and a headwind for consumers.

wti

If Strait closed through April, oil 130-150. Based on physical shortage evidence from products (jet fuel, diesel). Conflict extends ? non-linear price moves possible.

metals

Silver prices are around $72 an ounce... There is scope that they can spike down further with $50 on the downside as a target... Investment demand is showing signs of tiredness, weakness, pause. Massive liquidation of long COMEX positions (450M oz to 150M oz), ETF selling (65M oz since Jan), profit-taking after price surge to $121, and investor caution indicate near-term downward pressure. However, the expectation of investor return in H2 2024 and the structural analytical framework suggest this is a cautious, not sharp, down move.