dxy

We do have this general expectation that dollar probably does weaken... our long-term projection continues to be around 1.26 [for EUR/USD]. Administration wants weaker dollar, but near-term safe-haven flows provide support during 'hot conflict'. Expects Euro-dollar range 1.16-1.20s near-term, moving to 1.26 long-term.

wti

We happen to have in terms of our kind of more bearish 6-12 month view on oil... that transition leads to the first leg lower in prices, perhaps around a month's time... and then the Next leg lower comes on the basis of peace deals... Ukraine Peace still happens towards the end of the summer. Layton explicitly outlines a two-phase bearish view for the medium term (6-12 months), contingent on conflict de-escalation and geopolitical resolutions. The direction is 'down' (not 'cautious down') as he presents it as Citi's 'baseline view' and core forecast for H2.

metals

We actually expect it to rise to $100 again over the course of this year. Based on CPM Group's analysis combining macroeconomic factors, supply/demand fundamentals, and technical analysis, with current price around $88-$90 driven by financial investor demand for protection against economic problems.

wti

This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical event. The crude market had already moved substantially over the past two months. The move we saw on Monday wasn't even in the top 50 moves in crude... The crude markets are very well supplied. Bessent argues the oil price spike was pre-priced and current supply is ample, suggesting near-term price pressure is limited despite geopolitical events.

wti

If current disruptions continue, we think oil prices can basically go up to a hundred, or a hundred dollars per barrel. Current price already includes $19 war premium. Further disruption, especially closure of Strait of Hormuz, would push prices sharply higher.

wti

If the war with Iran is short and oil goes to 80, 90, 100, it would probably have a major effect. Explicitly states a scenario where oil prices rise sharply to $80-100 due to the conflict.

metals

by the end of the decade, I'm saying gold's going to be 10,000... I still say 10,000 by the end of the decade. Acknowledges a massive run has occurred and gold needs to digest/grind sideways in the short term, but maintains a long-term secular bull market thesis.

ndx

Strong advocacy to rotate capital into 'technology AI trade' and 'mag 7' as they have been 'hammered' and represent value. Sees S&P 500 reaching 8,000 driven by tech, indicating bullish NDX outlook.

wti

I think a temporary spike... oil's only up 6%... this is just a short-term blip. Views the geopolitical-driven surge as a transient event, not a sustained inflationary shock. Advises hedging at current high prices, expecting them to come down.

dxy

we're having a strengthening of the dollar Contrary to consensus view dollar would weaken this year

wti

If this lasts weeks, months, you're going to see an energy crisis in the developing world and higher prices in the developed world...

wti

this war with Iran... oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100, but it is a short and not prolonged.

wti

this right now will increase gas prices a little bit Dimon explicitly says Iran events will increase gas/oil prices in short term, but only sustained if conflict prolongs.

yields

yields which are elevated Cited as reason credit is 'asset class of the moment' and driving inflows

ndx

the overall AI tech trade is exhausting itself, and investors need to look at other places for returns Recommends focusing on non-AI trade like consumer staples instead of tech

wti

there's a fundamental bull case for the price of oil...it's one of the cheapest assets in the world Still likes oil stocks despite potential short-term volatility from geopolitical events

yields

we've seen a rise around the world in sovereign yields because of the worries about higher inflation driven by energy costs Bond market quickly adjusting to oil price jump, pricing out Fed rate cuts

yields

we will mostly trade in the range of 4 to 4.5 Based on bond market shift from growth/flight-to-quality concerns to inflation concerns, with 10-year up 10bps after ISM data, but range-bound unless financial instability emerges.

wti

Crude needed this headline... We were starting to see some panic trading overnight with crude trading up 8%... The market is going to significantly sell off when those ships start moving. Explicitly describes panic-driven spikes and expected sell-offs based on fluid logistics and security developments, indicating high volatility in the short term.

dxy

we're up a dollar again today. We're at 99 on the dollar... The dollar goes up and oil prices go up Knapp explicitly notes the dollar is up sharply ('up a dollar again'), links it to the oil price spike due to the US being a petrocurrency exporter, and describes the correlation as a current, exacerbating factor.

wti

when you see the spike in gas oil prices... they have a big problem The entire discussion is framed around a recent and ongoing spike in oil (and gas) prices due to geopolitical targeting in the Gulf, presenting it as a current, sharp increase.

metals

Gold and gold miners... Gold is $35T asset, play on geopolitics, debasement, inflation, central bank incompetence. If way out is bailing out private credit, gold prices that in. Still long gold, plays via PHYS. Gold miners up 100%. Commodity trade here to stay. Geopolitics, inflation, central bank actions all supportive.

ndx

I would expect to see continued volatility on an intraday basis. While not giving a pure price direction, she explicitly forecasts continued intraday volatility. This is a 'volatile' directional call for the short term. Her emphasis on severe underlying weakness (avg member down >25%) supports a fragile, churning environment.

metals

The fact that gold's not making new highs on this... should be a wake-up call that... maybe the bull market has happened... Silver had a nasty, nasty reversal yesterday. Points to poor price action in precious metals despite the geopolitical catalyst, suggesting a pause or end to the bull move.

wti

energy was getting better regardless of this. And if we get any sell-the-news in energy or oil over the next couple of weeks, that's actually what you want to be buying Identifies energy as the clear market leadership that has been improving for months and should be bought on dips.

yields

if you look at the price action in the last couple days, It's bond yields up, particularly in Europe. Sees recent price action as signaling a return to an environment of rising yields.

wti

I would not fade this current spike... I would be careful fading it because it starts to become much more serious... this is going to be a structural repricing... the risks are to the upside. Geopolitical risks from Iranian proxies create protracted supply disruption risks; hoarding by China/India increases demand; OPEC capacity constraints limit supply response; two-supply-chain world requires higher inventories.

metals

Gold is once again heading towards record highs, that seems to be the one constant throughout all of this. People unanimously agree that gold is the place to go for a haven play.

wti

We are seeing war risk premiums on the rise now. Both Brent and WTI moving on up in tandem. Strait of Hormuz closure, Iranian targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure, Qatar LNG supply disruption creating immediate supply shock

metals

Gold is reflecting that [uncertainty] and has reflected that over the last year, year and a half. Up. Gold is seen as a hedge against the sustained uncertainty that has been a market staple for 18 months, which the current conflict exacerbates.

yields

You start it off with the flight to quality and lower yields. And that quickly reversed course and now you're seeing higher yields and I think that's the right reaction. The war is inflationary (not disinflationary), adding to existing inflationary pressures from rising input prices. The bond market's initial flight-to-quality move has reversed as it prices in higher inflation.

wti

We're looking in the second half, we were bullish because basically the shale production can't be increasing the way it has, keeping up with global growth. That's why oil is up 37% this year. Geopolitical risks with Iran could further tighten supply, especially if US controls Iranian exports via Kharg Island. China's inventory building suggests anticipation of tighter market.

yields

We now have the lowest mortgage rates in over 3 years, they're under six percent. and then 10 UtreasureCarct the 4% level. And so that's very, very bullish. So as rates come down, it will cause the Fed to cut. Falling goods prices (deflationary) recognized by bond market as bullish, leading to lower yields. Expects Fed cuts to follow.

metals

gold geopolitical premium has a lot of risk of heading back lower as we had deeper into training this coming week. Gold is extremely stretched versus historical metrics (60-month moving average, vs crude oil), and easing geopolitical tensions could reduce its risk premium.

wti

I'm fully expecting, come Monday, Kudau [crude] will probably be lower. Expects OPEC+ coordinated production increase, Trump election motivation for lower energy prices, and post-invasion relief to pressure prices.

wti

If we are looking into a scenario where there continues in longer disruptions of the strait of Hormuz for more than a few days towards a week or month, then we've definitely seen a scenario possible of $100 per barrel. Conditional forecast based on duration of geopolitical disruption to key chokepoint.

yields

Two scenarios: quick resolution returns yields to normal; prolonged conflict brings inflationary pressure, term premium, fiscal impact, pushing 10-year yields much higher. Currently acting as safe haven (below 4%) but oil price spike could create inflationary pressure; outcome depends on conflict duration.

wti

if this thing gets resolved fairly rapidly, as I expect, the straits will be open and the price of oil will come down rather rapidly. Believes the conflict is short, Iranian naval threat neutralized, and Strait of Hormuz practically open. Resolution will remove war zone insurance premium, leading to price decline.

yields

treasuries have been in a trading range really for about three years now... I think with treasuries, you're basically going to earn the coupon... I don't think you're going to get much in the way of capital gains or capital losses over the next several years. Sees yields stable due to resilient economy and persistent inflation, suggesting the Fed may not need to cut rates. Expects continuation of the multi-year range.

dxy

It means more uncertainty from the US. It means more spending out of the US, and ultimately probably fuel to fire in terms of that weaker dollar stronger EM equity trade. Conflict increases US uncertainty/spending, weakening dollar, benefiting EM equities.

wti

overnight, people were saying oil is going to open up 10% higher. It's about 5 and change percent higher now. Conflict-driven spike, but already partially reverted as market prices in short duration.

metals

We are very bullish... I do think 5,000 is a new base for gold... We're really excited. We think there's still lots of space to grow in the gold space... we're very bullish on silver, perhaps even slightly more bullish on silver than gold... I expect to see it ride with gold and outperform. Based on new paradigm shift, fiscal mismanagement, currency debasement, structural deficits in silver, and rising retail/investment demand. Timeframe implied by 'new base', 'still lots of space', and discussion of multi-year trends.

metals

We're in the early stages of a real bull market and a squeeze on copper supply... It's going to be a multi-year bull market... I don't know if it'll last 3 years or 10 years, but it's going to be with us for a long time. Structural supply deficits (2-8M tons by 2030-35), massive demand from AI/data centers (450K tons for US AI alone = second largest copper mine), energy transition, grid upgrades, EVs, and strategic stockpiling by nations. Limited tier-one deposits (only four 1B+ ton near-surface globally) with decade+ lead times for new production.

metals

Obviously gold coming up as a commodity as a safe haven asset. So I would say silver and gold are the same and we need to really look at those as holds. Gold/silver seen as safe havens during geopolitical uncertainty; silver also has industrial component affected differently.

wti

We definitely have made a rotation into energy since October of last year and see that the conflict will continue to give it a runway for at least the next several months. Geopolitical conflict in energy-producing region creates supply disruption risk and inflation pressure.

wti

I would not fade this current spike. This is now the real deal. And the probability that this thing gets protracted in other regions, I think, is quite high. Structural repricing due to protracted conflict, asymmetric risks, hoarding, and exhausted spare capacity/SPR.

wti

Probably about another $10 I think in the next couple of weeks. Discusses tail risk realization, significant risk premium, and need for market positioning to shake out, indicating a strong near-term upward move.

wti

Oil prices are going up. Conflict in Middle East, potential Strait of Hormuz closure affecting China's oil supply, geopolitical risk premium

yields

The path of least resistance seems to be towards lower yields... The concern seems to me towards low yields... the safe haven bid is going to come into the back end of the yield curve. Cites risk-off sentiment, geopolitical concerns, AI disruption fears, and market positioning (call/put skews) pointing to lower yields, despite acknowledging sticky inflation and a strong economy.

ndx

We've cut our long-term estimate on the multiple for the market from 22 to 20... We're probably in a kind of single digit return market here, not a double digit return market. Auth explicitly cuts valuation multiple for the market (which is heavily tech-weighted) and forecasts single-digit returns, implying downward pressure on NDX. He highlights Mag7 losing free cash flow premium and software facing margin pressure from AI competition, directly negative for tech-heavy NDX.

ndx

I would expect to actually march to be an up month for the stock market. Geopolitical sell-off is worst this week; software and Mag7 weakness is an overreaction and they are bottoming, which should lead the market up.

ndx

Four themes driving market volatility this year and I think they'll continue Midterm election years historically see intra-year market volatility with average declines

wti

Geopolitical issues in Middle East are causing oil prices to rise Tensions in Middle East and concern about Strait of Hormuz impacting energy prices

yields

Fed will probably cut rates this year - call for two rate cuts in second half Weakening employment markets and productivity gains will give room to cut rates