ndx

Our target's 7800, that's the base case for 2026... we're seeing a broadening out in the earnings story, and we should see a broadening out in the equity story as a result of that. Based on rolling recovery from policy changes, investment cycle strength, and tremendous earnings revision breadth supporting higher equity prices despite valuation concerns.

yields

We're likely going to see, therefore, rates stay a little bit higher for longer. They're going to come down, but they're going to stay higher for longer than what we've seen historically. The forecast is based on inflation peaking mid-next year but remaining above the Fed's target, leading to a 'higher for longer' rate environment.

metals

this is even more positive for gold rather than crypto... the proper... hedge... is probably much more in precious metals rather than crypto Relative preference over crypto due to lower volatility and regulatory concerns; framed as hedge, not outright bullish call.

ndx

that really should mean all clear for a year end rally... Absolutely 100% [risk-on] Positioning signals in buy territory, Fed supportive, dip is non-fundamental.

ndx

Big tech in the AI trade, that's probably gonna be up anywhere from 20 to 25 percent... AI revolution stocks... up 20% of minimum Based on 2026 outlook, AI revolution just starting, deals accelerating from hyperscalers, beginning of monetization phase

ndx

I think we can trade higher into the end of the year and close at new highs. Hogan cites positive seasonality for December, expected rate cuts, strong earnings growth, and attractive valuations for Mag 6 tech stocks (which dominate NDX) as reasons for near-term upside.

metals

Silver could hit $70. Silver is prone to vicious short squeezes in a smaller market, especially if Fed cuts and statement is not hawkish.

ndx

We could easily see 10-20% correction from where here. if the carried unwinds. The US AI trade is funded by leveraged yen carry trade. An unwind would force selling of AI stocks.

yields

investors should be open to the possibility that as fed cut rates, long term yields may rise. Historical precedent (Sept cut led to yield rise), potential hawkish cut statement, and political pressure threatening Fed independence.

yields

rates to come down in the US to around 3% by the middle of next year Expected decline in interest rates coupled with economic growth and dollar moderation supports risk assets

metals

We still have a now look that's this pretty positive on the metals Acknowledges metals will be volatile too but maintains positive outlook as part of rotation strategy

ndx

I think the market looks pretty good, at least for the next four or five months Seasonally strong period, Fed cutting rates, earnings increasing, productivity and margins increasing

yields

most likely a Fed cut in December... corporate bond rates have come down Fed funds futures showing 86% chance of cut, comments from Fed governors suggest easing

dxy

Dollar kind of anchoring around this 100 level and dropping a bit below it Linked to Fed rate cut expectations and gold's advance due to weaker dollar

metals

Platinum has risen about 75% here, silver up 70% year-to-date, gold up 55% year-to-date with continued bullish momentum Driven by Chinese demand, supply disruptions, new futures contracts, and structural support from central banks and ETFs

yields

10-year Treasury yields dropped from about 4.14% back down to 4% here Based on Fed rate cut expectations and observed price action

yields

We might start to see that push to 2.75 to 2.50 Labor market weakening despite rates at 3% anchor level, expressing via curve flattening positions

ndx

there's two more years at least we have in this tech bull market. You're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build. There is truly a fourth industrial revolution

metals

nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 26 with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 26 Central bank diversification post-Russia sanctions, Fed rate cuts boosting ETF inflows, potential private sector diversification in small gold market relative to bond markets

rut

Russell 2000 is an indicator of small caps is up something like close to 10% this year... when it was likely that the Fed was going to cut, that's when you saw small caps take off Sees continued opportunity in small caps due to Fed cuts, valuation, and AI innovation in niche markets

rut

Small caps catching up in 2026... small cap is catching up to the trend... has actually tended to outperform larger cap stocks Strong bullish case for small caps based on fiscal stimulus benefits, tax advantages, and historical growth patterns

ndx

tech bull market has another two years, risk on not just into year end but as we go into 2026 AI revolution continuing, multiple tech companies positioned for growth, S&P 7000 target

yields

The rates on the longer end of the maturity spectrum, those 10s, 20s and 30s, we think those yield stay firm or even rise a little bit Expectation of steady to higher long-term rates supports financials thesis

ndx

it continues to only be 10:30 PM that AI party that goes to 4 AM Views AI adoption as early stage with massive growth ahead, sees $3-4 trillion spending coming, enterprise adoption only at 3%, compares to 1996 not 1999 bubble

yields

we will be at 3% by late winter and on our way down towards 2 to 2 and a half by the end of next year Fed is behind the curve, should be at neutral already given falling inflation and rising unemployment

dxy

But dollar is going to weaken and then we're going to have an inflation problem all over again Weaker dollar would contribute to renewed inflation pressures if Fed policy is perceived as too dovish

yields

Well then the long end is gonna speak up. If long rates are going to go higher If Fed cuts rates below inflation level, market will push long-term rates higher to compensate

ndx

Equities probably shows the most potential for upside. I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7 Expects market broadening beyond tech megacaps to drive equity gains in 2026, with economic recovery and reduced headwinds supporting overall market upside

ndx

they're going to continue to power the market higher Based on Nvidia's strong earnings and guidance as largest cap stock, with AI theme dominating market focus

ndx

I believe this is a tech bull market goes on another two years... I think we have two more years left in this tech bull market Based on enterprise demand acceleration, government support, early stage of AI adoption (top of third inning), and transformative nature of AI technology across multiple sectors

metals

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in aside from fixed income, precious metals remain in portfolios due to uncertainty and risk concerns

ndx

December could be an up month Based on strong fundamentals, rate cut expectations, earnings growth, and AI productivity gains, but tempered by major downside risks and uncertainty

ndx

We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7800 driven by strong earnings growth. We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle AI investment driving productivity gains, broadening earnings cycle, and 7800 S&P target imply continued upward trajectory for tech-heavy indices

ndx

is going to drive the market higher in 2026 AI investment spending, productivity gains, and deflationary benefits supporting market growth

yields

you will likely see a rate cut Economy showing pockets of weakness and deflationary pressure from AI supporting case for rate cuts

yields

we might start to see push to 2.75-2.50 Labor market weakening despite 3% rates, new Fed chair may lower neutral rate assumptions

ndx

We think we're gonna end next year around 7800. So quite a bit of upside still, for large caps ahead Maintains bullish outlook on large cap tech despite near-term choppiness, sees continued AI-driven growth

rut

We actually recently upgraded small caps, overweight versus large caps. We do think that there is going to be more risk appetite as we get into the first part of next year Expects rotation into small caps due to improved earnings revisions and transition from rolling recession to rolling recovery

yields

our economists think that we're going to get a dovish pause in September and we'll have three cuts in next year Expectation of Fed easing policy with multiple rate cuts indicates downward pressure on yields

yields

10 and 30 year yields are higher now than when Fed funds were over 5%, so for all this easing the long end isn't really responding at all Persistent inflation pressures and Fed lack of control over long end suggest continued upward pressure

dxy

Dollar's days as the reserve currency are coming to an end. That is what gold is telling you Central banks moving away from dollar to gold, weaponization of dollar, US fiscal deterioration, loss of reserve status

metals

I think we're headed to $100 an ounce on silver by next year. and gold's obviously going to be quite a bit higher as well Central bank buying accelerating, dollar crisis, loss of confidence in US fiscal situation

ndx

I do think that we're going to see a decline in the markets. I think there's going to be a big shakeout in these stocks AI bubble, overvaluation, unsustainable investment financing, similar to dotcom bust pattern

yields

Long-term rates are going to rise until they eventually explode when we have a complete run on the Treasury market Fed rate cuts not helping long end, yield curve steepening, sovereign debt crisis concerns

dxy

If US interest rates are indeed headed lower, if US bond yields are headed lower, then we still think that will go for a gradually weaker dollar. That's unlikely to change. Maintains structural bearish USD view based on interest rate differentials and long-term de-dollarization trends

yields

I would absolutely vote for for a 25 basis point cut if my vote were the marginal vote Argues current inflation is statistical mirage, recent data dovish, policy should be forward-looking with cuts appropriate

metals

Gold is being part of that... It's negatively correlated. It does very well in such bubbles... I would rather be short debt in a sense Dalio explicitly recommends gold as hedge against government debt problems and sees it performing well during bubble periods

yields

while the Fed is cutting short-term interest rates, Long-term interest rates are not going down... if the 10 year yield is not falling Fed cutting short rates but long-term yields remaining stable due to inflation concerns and economic uncertainty

ndx

We think stocks have time to move up and heal from the wobble... bull market that continues to appear to be very much intact Sees current volatility as temporary, recommends buying quality stocks being sold off, favors tech and growth sectors

yields

We think it does 25 basis points. We call it another down payment by Jerome Powell... the Fed is in the process of ending the Fed funds hike cycle that started in March of 2022 Expects continued Fed easing with one more cut likely this year, though acknowledges pace may be slower than market wants

ndx

relief rally that we're seeing today and a resumption of the rally on the upside Nvidia's strong earnings beat and positive guidance relieved AI sector pressure

metals

momentum in gold is going to continue to that bull run... there's really three main drivers that are going to keep this going into 2026 Global stagflationary environment with declining growth and rising inflation benefits gold, plus strong performance against multiple currencies