metals

Pettit describes gold as a 'really easy inflation trade' that people go to when concerned about runaway inflation. He notes ETF flows and momentum trading, framing it as a hedge for longer-term inflation risks, suggesting a cautiously positive outlook.

yields

if you chip away too much [at Fed independence], in my view, this is my opinion, it will drive rates higher, not lower. Links political pressure/erosion of Fed credibility directly to higher interest rates.

ndx

disappointing news on AI could lead to a sharp decline in equity prices Bowman explicitly links AI disappointment to sharp equity decline, implying NDX (tech-heavy) vulnerability.

yields

I do believe that's going to lead to a steeper yield curve. Justification is deflationary trends from AI and China's trade surplus creating conditions for lower policy rates, which historically steepen the curve. The risk of elevated rates due to fiscal deficits and potential loss of foreign confidence in US Treasuries provides a secondary, longer-term bullish argument for yields.

yields

it will drive rates higher, not lower Political interference with Federal Reserve independence undermines credibility and could lead to inflationary expectations, forcing higher rates.

yields

We think all things considered, there is room to cut the policy rate in the second quarter by 10 basis points. That's our forecast. Room for cut is constrained by net interest margin at record low; PBOC will use cuts sparingly and efficiently. Monetary support may mostly be liquidity injection to prevent bond yields from rising.

ndx

Explicitly states that 10-year yields over 5-5.5% 'would shock the equity market' and 'have a very negative impact on the equity market... force a revaluation.' This is a direct causal link from his yield view to equities.

yields

there's a probability we could see the ten year over 5%, maybe even 5.5%... the yield curve is going to get steeper, not flatter. Driven by potential new inflationary pressures from private capital deployment and deficit concerns, not the Fed's immediate actions.

metals

I still like gold as well... We are just going through this huge debasement cycle right now. And I think that's likely to continue... Every time there was a debasement cycle, the S&P 500 underperformed gold, which is happening right now. And I think that could potentially continue if the debasement cycle continues. Thesis based on long-term historical currency debasement cycles (4th since 1800s) driven by fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP, and inflation. Gold outperforms equities during such periods.

rut

I still like the Russell 2000... For small caps to outperform you need speculation... you need a good manufacturing cycle. And I think we are on the cusp of a potential manufacturing upcycle for the first time in three years. Rotation from mega-caps to small caps driven by fiscal tailwinds and a changing market reaction function where higher rates are now seen as cyclical, not restrictive. A potential manufacturing upcycle provides fundamental support.

dxy

Don't feel strongly about dollar this year; don't see strong magnetic pull for dollar; good US growth not super weak for dollar but no bullish case

metals

It could go sideways for a year Has been selling gold over last six months due to large holding; acknowledges short-term consolidation potential

yields

If we are... I think... Rates can go down and still a fair amount... I do [see rates lower at the end of this year]. Conditional on seeing convincing evidence that inflation is on a path back to 2%. The direction is cautious due to the explicit conditionality and noted concerns about persistent services inflation.

yields

I think rates can come down... I do [see rates lower at end of year] Conditional on convincing evidence inflation returning to 2%. Sees progress but non-housing services inflation still concerning at >4% annualized.

rut

We're neutral small caps... We're gonna remain more neutral in that space. The explicit 'neutral' stance, supported by a multi-year pattern of earnings estimate downgrades, translates to a 'sideways' directional view for the Russell 2000 (RUT).

ndx

all of these points to a pretty robust US equity market outlook Superior earnings power, AI long-term growth, capex, and supportive fiscal policy ahead of midterms underpin strength. Fed cuts less relevant.

ndx

Tech's gonna reassert its leadership... I think Mag7 breaks out from this consolidation and reasserts some form of leadership. Sees Goldilocks backdrop (disinflation, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts) as 'pretty great backdrop for equities' and expects tech to lead after recent underperformance.

wti

we're going to have oil cooperating in our view Part of cyclical disinflation story; oil price cooperation suggests contained or downward pressure on prices in the near term as a disinflationary tailwind.

wti

We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days and WTI up to around $66-67. Geopolitical risk premium from Iran/Russia-Ukraine conflicts, supply disruptions, and shift from bearish to neutral/slightly bearish view due to demand/supply uncertainty.

yields

The 10-year tends to follow nominal GDP... should we have four and a quarter? It probably should be higher than that. Nominal GDP >8% is booming and historically inconsistent with Fed cuts. US economy not productive enough to offset high nominal GDP without inflation. Market overconfident in Fed's ability to cut.

metals

it's just a big momentum trade... could go for a lot longer Driven by hedge fund momentum, central bank diversification from dollar reserves after geopolitical events (Russian assets), and as a hedge against dollar debasement/inflation.

rut

small caps would struggle if we don't get a couple rate cuts... I think small caps probably do need a couple rate cuts to rally. But I think we're gonna get them. His bullish view on small caps (RUT proxy) is conditional on receiving rate cuts, which he expects. He also notes small caps are now more rate-sensitive and relatively cheap.

dxy

A gradual reduction in rates towards the rest of the world. It means weaker dollar. It doesn't mean a collapse in the dollar.

yields

The Federal Reserve has already set up the market for interest rates to move to 3% by the end of the year. The market is already set up for rates to go lower.

metals

Key commodity remains gold... 5300 with a high conviction will get there. Positioned as the 'ultimate geopolitical hedge' against dollar exposure and current uncertainties.

metals

after this parabolic move... one has to be worried about a potential period of profit taking The sharp, parabolic rise since early December and recent spikes in platinum/palladium create vulnerability to short-term corrections and profit-taking, despite the strong fundamental backdrop.

metals

Direct analogy to gold going from 2,000 to 4,500 during previous hoarding episode. Raw industrial materials chart showing tightness and rising quickly. Hoarding of raw materials expected similar to precious metals. New order to inventory ratios turning up indicating demand for inventory.

wti

That's a recipe for a spike in prices right now. Record short positions, demand picking up (not slowing), geopolitical risk at all-time high, hoarding behavior beginning, supply vulnerable in dark fleet ships.

yields

I think the Fed's got to get the rate down at 3%. I think that's closer to equilibrium. Argument is based on addressing a 'labor problem' and allowing an 'over levered' economy/government to 'breathe'. This is a policy prescription implying lower policy rates, which would generally pull down yields.

metals

Lower real interest rates support also the outperformance of metals. Gold as geopolitical hedge; monetary policy shift toward cutting rates will lower real yields, boosting metals.

yields

Fed has scope to cut interest rates. Labor market weakening, inflation moving closer to 2% target, creating room for rate cuts.

ndx

It's certainly going to roil stocks a bit. Uncertainty and institutional instability are negative for equity market sentiment and valuations.

yields

at minimum, this is going to send mortgage rates up a bit. Political attack on Fed independence creates uncertainty and risk premium, leading to higher borrowing costs.

yields

I would definitely look for these numbers to once again push that 10 year to test that 4.20%. Hotter-than-expected PPI inflation and strong retail sales reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, creating upward pressure on Treasury yields. The 10-year has been in a tight range below 4.20% for over four months, and this data is seen as a catalyst to break higher.

rut

very bullish. I don't know if there's an area that benefits more than the economic setup we have... So we think the year over your earnings growth and small caps are going to be very strong. RUT (Russell 2000) represents small caps. Bullish due to dovish Fed, QE, accelerating growth, falling inflation, and strong technicals with buyers on dips in IWM (small-cap ETF).

metals

today that optionality displayed by precious metals... We started to hear with the gold price target the 4800... We may get there very fast Precious metals are recommended as portfolio optionality against geopolitical risk, with a specific price target mentioned.

dxy

The dollar is now trading at 3% risk premium discount to its model values... If we see this escalate tensions with the Fed, I think that premium will widen and the dollar will continue to trade at the discount.

metals

Gold has many tailwinds... Next 10% for gold should be easier from here because there's just so many tailwinds propelling the gold higher.

yields

One of the most important aspects of the news and as reflected in the market, it's simply a steepening of the yield curve in the U.S. when people are concerned about Fed independence... People get worried about long-term inflation and you're seeing reflected in gold prices rising, but you're also seeing it reflected in long-term yields going up relative to short-term yields.

dxy

the dollar has weakened.

metals

The gold price has strengthened.

ndx

stock futures have weakened.

yields

the bond market has weakened.

dxy

it is quite difficult and challenging for the US dollar.

metals

The dollar weakening is positive for commodities, particularly precious metals. Cites three drivers: better global growth, weaker dollar, and geopolitics.

ndx

it could weigh negatively on US equities, particularly if you're an international investor. Due to dollar weakness and preference for international assets.

dxy

The dollar is now trading at 3% risk premium discount to its model values... If we see this escalate tensions with the Fed, I think that premium will widen and the dollar will continue to trade at the discount.

metals

Gold has geopolitical tensions in Iran, you have got their dollar risk premium and you know it is not just the dollar risk premium which shows up on the gold, it's also the fact that a fiat currency versus a non-fiat asset which calls into question the US balance sheet.

yields

10 and 30 year yield are rising and the 30 year yield is rising more pronounced... it's clear how the markets are taking it.

dxy

dollar falling... dollar weaker against everything Explicitly states dollar weakness as part of market reaction to Fed independence concerns.

metals

gold and silver catch that really strong bid again today Links metals strength to combination of political risk (Fed independence threat) and geopolitical risk (Iran), with both undermining dollar and driving haven flows.

ndx

stocks... falling... all US assets falling in tandem Describes knee-jerk reaction to Fed news with US futures down about half percent, part of 'sell US' narrative.

dxy

we're seeing the dollar sort of lose its risk off appeal here Geopolitical uncertainty showing in currency markets, euro becoming a destination for capital, weaker dollar helps US companies with overseas revenue.

ndx

Remains overweight on tech (34% of index, 28% earnings growth), sees US earnings engine as powerful, expects market advance of 6-8%.

yields

we think yields can move lower over the course of the year Inflation is not a significant issue for the Fed (shelter inflation flat in real-time), disinflation is coming, bond market will pick up on that.

dxy

factoring in that the geopolitical tensions do feed into the US dollar weakness that we are expecting more from a strategic and structural standpoint as well. Geopolitical noise and a shift in capital allocation away from the US are structural drivers for dollar weakness.

metals

We've already allocated to gold for the last two years in our strategic asset allocation framework... maintain the gold allocation as a sort of the ballast you have in the portfolio. Positioned in anticipation of geopolitical changes and currency market flux.

yields

we're relatively neutral on duration, because of the uncertainties that we're seeing in terms of where rates go going forward. Uncertainty on timing of Fed rate cuts due to political pressure and data dependence.

metals

Gold is at an all time record high. Mentioned as a concurrent fact indicating strong recent performance and a flight to safety amid market turbulence related to the Fed.

yields

The bond yield last I looked was up to 4.2%. So the bond market could start to really show some discontent here... it looks like this issue with the Fed that could already cause the bond vigilantes to act up. Yardeni links potential Fed investigation/political pressure to bond vigilante action, implying upward pressure on yields in the near term.

metals

Geopolitics is what's keeping gold on its upward trajectory. Links gold's trajectory to geopolitical tensions (Venezuela, Russia) and as a hedge against market volatility risk signaled by high stock market vs. GDP ratio.

wti

prices are going down. I don't know what stops it. Cites structural US supply surplus of 4M bpd, Venezuela's potential addition as marginal (1% of global), and pre-existing downward trends in natural gas and gasoline.

metals

Gold is testing new highs. That's what gold is telling you. Gold cited as indicator of elevated geopolitical risk from Venezuela situation and broader risks (Iran, Russia). Current price action (testing new highs) presented as evidence of risk environment.

metals

the scope for some short-term selloff is there... platinum price again is vulnerable to short-term profit taking Massive price increases since November create vulnerability to profit-taking despite longer-term upward trend.

yields

longer term, our biggest concern would be a move higher in long term rates He explicitly identifies higher long-term rates as his biggest longer-term concern, specifying a threshold of 4.50%-4.75% on the 10-year yield. This is a directional view, not just a risk factor.

wti

for producers, there's a sweet spot for oil prices. And if we go too low, we have too much supply. It's not profitable for them to drill The argument centers on a balancing act: prices must be high enough to incentivize production investment but low enough to aid consumer affordability. This describes a range-bound or sideways dynamic, not a clear directional call for 'cautious down'.

wti

lower oil prices, you know, is good for everyone States lower oil prices are good, and focuses the near-term oil discussion on Iraq (not Venezuela), suggesting a bearish near-term view is more relevant. No explicit bullish catalyst is mentioned for oil.

yields

we think the first rate cut is now in June Argument is that structural labor weakness cannot be cured by rate cuts, and cuts could risk inflation, but Fed will likely cut in June after pausing to assess data. This implies a cautious downward path for yields, not an aggressive one.

ndx

The AI and data center spending boom continues. Continued AI/data center spending is cited as a key economic tailwind. The overall shift from a stagflationary to a more optimistic, potentially overheating outlook with strong capex (aided by 100% expensing) is supportive for growth-oriented tech stocks.

wti

We have tailwinds... coming from lower oil prices. And what's happening in Venezuela is likely also further going to add more supply to the oil market and therefore more downward pressure on oil prices. Explicitly cites lower oil prices as a tailwind and points to increased supply from Venezuela as a source of continued downward pressure.

yields

I'm looking for about a point and a half of cuts. Argument based on underlying inflation at target, unemployment above natural rate, and policy being overly restrictive. Forecast conditional on shelter inflation mechanically declining.