wti

this is a market, it's a bear market that's much more likely to go down Supply surplus in US/Canada (8M?10M barrels/day by 2028), demand destruction globally, pattern following natural gas decline, wealth effect dependency on stock market

dxy

people are looking to diversify from the dollar as a safe haven... this is creating appetite for European assets and for certain emerging market assets. Explicit statement that the dollar is not the all-weather hedge it was and that diversification away from it is occurring, which implies downward pressure on the DXY as capital flows elsewhere.

metals

Once the dust settles... I think the path is still for higher prices. Hansen believes the fundamental drivers for precious metals have strengthened over the last two months and positioning is low, indicating room for a rally once Middle East uncertainty clears.

wti

Our base case is that we do see oil prices continue to gradually move lower, call it $80 a barrel over the next three to six months. The interviewee provides a specific price target ($80) and timeframe (3-6 months), framing it as a 'base case' that is a 'good environment for growth'. This indicates a directional view, but the use of 'gradually' and the discussion of higher-price scenarios suggests caution, not a sharp move.

wti

below 80, I think eventually it'll get there, but not right now Expects eventual mean reversion or demand destruction to bring prices below current range floor.

dxy

Short term, what the war has shown is the dollar is, there's no other safe haven. In a crisis, the dollar strengthened. Safe-haven demand during geopolitical crisis provides short-term support, but longer-term deficit risks pose a threat.

yields

We know interest rates are going to be higher longer. Linked to inflationary pressures from the Iran war affecting fuel, fertilizer, and military spending.

ndx

We are long the equity market... I like equities... orient it a bit more towards the equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. Cites powerful tech earnings (e.g., semis up 97%), extraordinary technicals (buybacks > IPOs), and a productivity revolution favoring big caps.

yields

My sense is that 10-year note will drift lower over the, you know, through this year. Expects Fed cuts, sees initiatives (Fed balance sheet, fiscal) to contain long-end rates and stimulate housing.

metals

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months. Regardless of what happens in the second and third quarter, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see these economic political conditions improving. Acknowledges sharp recent rise and near-term uncertainty (consolidation/sideways possible), but maintains bullish medium/long-term view due to geopolitical risks, economic weakness, persistent inflation, and US election uncertainty. Discusses hedging strategies specifically because of vulnerability to downside after rapid price appreciation.

ndx

Entire commentary is bullish on tech (semis with 97% earnings growth) and 'big cap stocks,' citing powerful earnings, extraordinary technicals, and a productivity/AI-driven moat. The positive view on the primary drivers of the equity market and scarcity dynamics strongly implies upward direction for NDX constituents.

wti

we should be prepared to read volatile energy markets for some time to come. Due to physical disruption of supply (damaged facilities) even after Strait reopens, recovery is slow (up to 2 years). This creates a supply-constrained, uncertain environment conducive to volatility rather than a simple sustained directional move.

yields

longer term yields in our view are likely to stay elevated Driven by geopolitical uncertainty (sustaining term premium) and higher oil prices lifting inflation expectations. The Fed being on hold supports this view for the medium term.

yields

The 10-year at 4.30% needs to be higher. The old rule of thumb is the 10-year should equal nominal GDP, which easily has a 5 in front of it. The yield curve has to go higher due to inflation premiums and growth themes. Belief that nominal GDP is above 5%, implying yields are too low relative to economic fundamentals.

wti

Obviously, we are seeing a move to the downside... WTI is trading down about 10 and a half percent... that's putting pressure to the downside when it comes to crude oil... you could actually see more in further pressure to the downside when it comes to crude. Geopolitical news (Strait of Hormuz opening), potential economic slowdown, SPR releases, restored production in Iraq/Kuwait, demand destruction, and possibility shortages turn to glut.

yields

it does probably mean that we have steeper yield curve for the foreseeable future. The reasoning is based on persistently high deficits (6-7% of GDP), increased spending (defense, potential stimulus), and large refunds (~$160B), with no political will to fix the problem. This points to higher long-term yields.

wti

We did increase our Brent oil price target. We think that will average about $100 by the time we get to the end of June and by the time we get to the end of the year at $90. The forecast is for a rise to $100, but the tone is measured, noting the market has priced in a Strait reopening and that the consumer can absorb the increase. The year-end target of $90 is lower than the mid-year peak, indicating a cautious upward path.

yields

In a couple of months... things are just too good... the terminal rate may be having to move more towards 4%... that of course would put pressure across all the asset classes. He explicitly warns that strong data (earnings, inflation, employment) in the coming months could force a reassessment of the terminal Fed rate higher.

ndx

I come away incrementally more bullish... This is a bright green light going into earnings season Based on Asia trip observations of accelerated AI demand in Taiwan chip supply chain with no cracks in build-out, expecting positive earnings impact for tech companies including hyperscalers and software.

yields

We just don't see a big directional interest rate trade. The focus is on harvesting income from high nominal yields, not betting on rate direction.

ndx

we just had a brand-new all-time high. Refers to stock market (implied S&P/NDX) hitting all-time highs, presenting it as a current fact and testament to economic strength.

wti

I think your oil price will go down to lower than what it was before. Ties lower oil prices directly to a successful Iran deal being announced 'fairly soon'.

ndx

We do think this can continue... We do think that tech is going to continue to reassert the leadership that it's reasserted in the last 10 or 11 days here. Tail risks removed, AI productivity expectations cementing, financial conditions stable, labor market strong, positive trend reasserted, tech as primary driver of broad-based economic gains.

wti

Oil prices are coming down Attributed to potential Iran deal progress reducing geopolitical risk premium

dxy

But the base case for medium term from our side is that the dollar go down... that's really simply because the traditional providers of savings to the global economy... they're going to have to keep more of their savings at home... And if there's less fresh new money coming in from those traditional providers savings... that should bring down the value of the dollar.

metals

Long term, I think the tailwinds for gold are still intact. We're in a world where you've got fiat currency compromise, inflation, instability, fiscal stress, geopolitical angst, all of these things and more are driving a desire for more neutral FX and reserve assets. Expects central bank buying to continue, especially China post-Middle East. Acknowledges volatility from momentum players but structural tailwinds are very good. 'Cautious' due to potential for corrections and liquidation events (e.g., Turkey).

dxy

Dollar downside has more room to run but EUR/USD at 1.20 seems stretched; unwind depends on ECB hike decisions and growth implications.

ndx

US tech up 13% month-to-date; TSMC earnings very positive; AI/tech trade filling void; helping indices reach pre-conflict levels and go beyond.

wti

The price of crude oil goes up $3 a day, not every day $3, but averages rising about $3 a day until we get some kind of a movement of opening the ships If Iran deal fails and stalemate continues, oil shipments remain blocked, creating supply constraint that drives prices higher daily until resolution.

yields

I would still argue that in that type of world that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5% Persistent 3%+ inflation environment with elevated risk premiums requires higher interest rates to reach fair value. Fed may need to hike rather than cut given nominal GDP growth outlook.

wti

the oil prices are coming down Linked to the prospect of a US-Iran deal reducing geopolitical risk.

metals

I do believe that Gold could see an upper triangle in forward. Gold is now seen as a strategic diversification asset for central banks, not just a hedge, suggesting sustained but measured demand.

wti

I would expect still a lot of pressure on the energy market and it's the rivet it's going forward. Strait of Hormuz remains closed, causing ongoing supply disruption.

wti

the futures market at least are predicting that oil doesn't go all the way back down to 60 or 65. So when we do come back down, we probably don't go all the way back down to where we were pre-conflict here. Persian Gulf shutdowns creating multi-layer shortages in chemical supply chain, with restart timeline extending through Q3 or year-end, supporting elevated oil prices as feedstock costs remain high.

yields

Short term inflation expectations have moved up. Not by much though... long-term inflation expectations. Don't Budge, their well anchored... it is very important that Central Banks act carefully... they can take wait and see attitude... please don't rush. Georgieva explicitly describes anchored long-term inflation expectations and advocates for central bank caution against premature tightening. This suggests she expects yields to remain rangebound as central banks adopt a wait-and-see approach, balancing slight uptick in short-term expectations against growth risks.

dxy

To me it is very difficult to have a credible story around de-dollarization when the dollar is strong not weak relative to history... The world was longer dollars than it was in 2024 despite all the hot air spent talking about de-dollarization. Dollar remains strong and global dollar claims continue growing, suggesting no imminent decline in dollar dominance despite geopolitical tensions.

wti

The futures market has to balance between one possibility, which is that there is plenty of oil 2-3 months out and oil is on a trajectory, not immediately because of the damage and everything else back to 60. And another possibility where this persists and oils at 150 or above and the markets had trouble figuring that one out. Market uncertain between two scenarios: quick resolution (price back to $60) vs. persistent disruption ($150+). Current price reflects this uncertainty rather than clear directional view.

wti

If that happens, oil goes way down... I think your oil price will go down to lower than what it was before. Predicated on a successful deal with Iran being announced soon, which would increase supply or reduce geopolitical risk premium.

yields

JGBs at a 29-year high, the bunds at a 15-year high are yields are higher... That is a tell that the cyclical the global inflation cycle upturn... is a thing. The argument is that a global, cyclical upturn in inflation (evidenced by data from Japan, Germany, China, and the US) will put upward pressure on sovereign bond yields globally, as seen in JGB and Bund yields reaching multi-decade highs.

ndx

Earnings, earnings, earnings, positive analyst revisions and the US is the oasis around the world. Bullish due to strong corporate earnings, positive analyst revisions, and US being preferred destination for global capital compared to other major economies.

metals

Bull case is like 81 to 86...within kind of the next few weeks...silver could get that kind of second leg higher into the 80s Based on constructive Iran talks leading to lower oil prices and easing inflation fears, with silver in structural deficit providing support.

metals

this is gonna be a theme for the next few years that's actually gonna be pretty bullish for the complex Gatt cites structural factors: aluminium supply disruption lasting ~12 months, electricity constraints limiting quick supply response, and rising government stockpiling adding demand premium.

wti

if anything, that downward slope is usually a bullish signal for commodities rather than a bearish one Gatt interprets crude backwardation as bullish short-term signal, indicating strong immediate demand and need to draw down inventories.

ndx

Yes, I think tech is going higher. Based on free cash flow inflection for hyperscalers, AI compute demand growth, and valuation/positioning reset creating upside risk.

wti

we would probably see them ratchet higher If US blockade of Iranian exports is fully enforced, it would tighten global energy markets and put more pressure on prices. Current price increase reflects announcement but market discounts severity.

wti

WTI crude oil jumping back above $100... May crude oil futures... up just about 8% here... The effective shutdown of the Strait drove energy prices sharply higher. The immediate catalyst is the geopolitical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The speaker frames this as a direct, sharp reaction to the news.

yields

reinforced those expectations that central banks may delay any kind of interest rate cut. The speaker directly links the energy price spike to expectations that central banks will delay rate cuts. Delaying cuts implies a 'higher for longer' stance, which is typically associated with upward pressure on yields, especially in the short term as the market reprices the timing of monetary policy.

wti

at some point in your oil... the oil will go up because supply is shrinking US-Iran blockade creates mutual supply disruption; Iran has financial cushion from recent windfall oil sales but supply constraints will eventually push prices higher

ndx

stock markets falling Geopolitical risk, higher yields, falling confidence, and growth slowdown create negative environment for equities.

wti

higher oil prices Iran conflict and control of Hormuz creates supply disruption risks that drive oil prices higher.

yields

bond yields higher Geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will push bond yields upward.

wti

If this blockade takes months to work, that forecast [oil prices moving back down to 70-80 range by year-end] is not going to be true. Altman explicitly counters the market consensus for lower oil prices by year-end, implying sustained higher prices over a medium-term horizon due to a protracted blockade.

ndx

Stock market is being lower... you're gonna have stock markets falling... Even the peak of the war, the S&P was down 4%. He directly links escalation to lower stock markets in the short term. However, he is overwhelmingly bullish on tech/AI long-term, calling it a 'secular boom' that will drive markets. The short-term 'cautious down' view is specific to the war escalation scenario.

wti

all price are going to be higher than otherwise... oil prices go to 150, 200... oil is at 120, 130, 140... oil can go towards 80, 80 plus. It's not going to go back to 60. Roubini's analysis is conditional on conflict scenarios. For de-escalation with Iranian control, he sees a sustained higher floor (~$80+). For full escalation, he explicitly forecasts prices reaching $120-$140+ in the short term (2-3 months). The direction is clearly up from pre-war levels in all scenarios, but the magnitude depends on policy.

yields

Bond yields being higher... bond yields higher. Explicitly stated as a consequence of the conflict escalation, due to higher inflation expectations and growth concerns.

ndx

If there's a deal, there's all time highs. If there's bombing again, we'll have some sinking back... Then you're gonna go back to the lows of March. Market direction explicitly tied to Iran conflict outcomes: deal = all-time highs, escalation = back to March lows. Current resilience suggests underlying strength.

wti

If Iran tries to bomb those going through and then starts inflicting major damage on the ports and the oil facilities. Then you're gonna see go out about a 150 Siegel presents two extreme scenarios for oil prices based on Iran conflict resolution: deal leads to stability, escalation leads to $150. Current price around $425 considered manageable.

wti

oil crashed 16% and then shot back over $100 Iran Strait toll crisis creating uncertainty; traders likely to sell off into weekend; different crude grades at varying prices.

yields

yields have risen sharply from where they ended February CPI driven by fuel costs created an 'inflation-on' period, not risk-off. The Iran conflict has trumped all other factors, putting upward pressure on yields.

metals

I continue to think the gold to oil ratio is going to finish this cycle way, way higher, way higher, over 100, over 200, maybe, maybe as high as 400 barrels an ounce. Sees gold as a hedge against counterparty/credit risk if supply chains break. The ceasefire was seen as a 'Suez moment' potentially leading to a gold-settled multi-currency system, which is 'good for gold'.

wti

I think oil is going a lot below 60. Part of his thesis that the gold-to-oil ratio will soar to 100-400. Expects near-term volatility due to war, but long-term direction is down.

wti

It's kind of inevitable that's where we're going to end up... it's reasonable when you look at those long dated futures going out to December of this year to see lower prices. Believes a deal will be struck to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, returning oil flows to a post-war equilibrium, which futures markets are already pricing.

dxy

We can't forget that US policy uncertainty in 2025 particularly has been a creed driver of U.S.D. weakness... there is a bit of a push and pull, but bottom line and if as long you have US policy uncertainty. There will be a little bit of that sort of downward pressure on the dollar we think.

yields

For us we are still expecting three Fed cuts to resume at the second half of the year and beyond.

wti

If there is one more month of closure in Hormuz, oil price will go back to $100 per barrel. And effectively every extra month of closure is an extra $15-$20.

wti

Potentially closer to 80, 75, 80 by the end of the year... you're going to see a risk premium of 10 to 15 dollars by the end of the year. He explicitly forecasts a year-end price of $75-80, which is below current ~$98, implying a downward move. However, he emphasizes a slow process and a persistent $10-15 risk premium, indicating the decline will be cautious and not a crash. The term 'cautious up' is interpreted here as 'cautiously moving up to a lower level from an even higher spike', but the directional intent is a moderated decline from current war-premium highs.